Temporal evolution of features that control 10-m wind gusts in moist baroclinic wave simulations identified using non-linear regression

EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 19A majority of insured losses over Europe are related to Extra-Tropical Cyclones (ETC) which are characterised by strong winds, heavy precipitation and powerful ocean waves. Baroclinic wave simulations (BWS) are used to study ETC by varying their background state and measuring their different intensities. However, two main issues limit an exhaustive exploration of ETC intensity and background state relationship: 1) the dimensionality of the feature space, 2) a large number of intensity measures. To alleviate this issue, this study proposes to use a wrapper Feature Selection Algorithm (wFSA) combined with a non-linear regressor applied to an intensity measure. The selected subsets are analysed through time. BWS was performed in the moist case using OpenIFS version Cy43r3v2 configured as an aqua planet with full physics and the radiation scheme deactivated. The atmospheric state proposed by Jablonowski and Williamson was used. The spatial resolution of the simulation was set to TL319/L137 and the time resolution to 20 minutes for 15 days. The initial perturbation was located in 40°N 20°E. A number of 55 measures -called features- were extracted from the BWS and the 10-m wind gust was selected as the intensity measure. A stable wFSA was performed using weighted Random Forest Regressor in the framework proposed by Meinshausen and Bühlmann. The regression was run 10 times on 60% of randomly selected points in the northern hemisphere to infer the 10-m wind gust. Finally, the average feature importance and its variance were computed for each feature every 12 hours. The forecast surface roughness and the specific humidity were the most important features for the first 2 days. Afterwards, mean sea level pressure became predominant for 5 days. For the remaining days, forecast surface roughness, specific humidity and large scale precipitation were the most important features to infer 10-m wind gust. Further work will aim at increasing the number of BWS by modifying the average temperature of the background state. All results will be compared to propose an efficient dimension reduction to study BWS and their evolution.Peer reviewe

Relationships between extra-tropical cyclone intensity measures

EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 19Extra-Tropical Cyclones (ETC) cause the most variability in weather and a significant portion of total insured losses in Europe. Their impacts are caused by high wind speeds, heavy precipitation and large ocean waves. The intensity of ETCs can be quantified with multiple different measures such as Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), relative vorticity or storm severity indices. Currently, it is not known how the various measures of ETC intensity relate to each other. The aim of this study is to determine relationships between different intensity measures, their dependence on geographical region, and on the structure and evolution of the ETCs. ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021 was used to study the relationships. The analysis was restricted to the cold season (from October to March) which is when the strongest ETCs most often occur. ETCs were tracked using feature tracking software TRACK with values of 850-hPa relative vorticity every three hours as input. To focus on the most relevant ETCs affecting Europe, only tracks in the North Atlantic were chosen and stationary and short-lived systems were excluded. The intensity measures were calculated by combining the ETC tracks with parameters from ERA5 reanalysis. The intensity measures analysed include the maximum 850-hPa relative vorticity, minimum MSLP, maximum wind gusts, and a storm severity index which is based on extreme 10-metre winds and their occurrence probability. Relationships between different intensity measures were analysed for land and sea areas separately using mutual information and density heatmaps.    The initial results shows that there is a correlation between maximum 850-hPa vorticity and minimum MSLP, and that this correlation is stronger over sea than land areas. However, this relationship is non-linear, with considerable spread associated with it. Additional results concerning the other measures of intensity will also be presented.Extra-Tropical Cyclones (ETC) cause the most variability in weather and a significant portion of total insured losses in Europe. Their impacts are caused by high wind speeds, heavy precipitation and large ocean waves. The intensity of ETCs can be quantified with multiple different measures such as Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), relative vorticity or storm severity indices. Currently, it is not known how the various measures of ETC intensity relate to each other. The aim of this study is to determine relationships between different intensity measures, their dependence on geographical region, and on the structure and evolution of the ETCs. ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021 was used to study the relationships. The analysis was restricted to the cold season (from October to March) which is when the strongest ETCs most often occur. ETCs were tracked using feature tracking software TRACK with values of 850-hPa relative vorticity every three hours as input. To focus on the most relevant ETCs affecting Europe, only tracks in the North Atlantic were chosen and stationary and short-lived systems were excluded. The intensity measures were calculated by combining the ETC tracks with parameters from ERA5 reanalysis. The intensity measures analysed include the maximum 850-hPa relative vorticity, minimum MSLP, maximum wind gusts, and a storm severity index which is based on extreme 10-metre winds and their occurrence probability. Relationships between different intensity measures were analysed for land and sea areas separately using mutual information and density heatmaps.    The initial results shows that there is a correlation between maximum 850-hPa vorticity and minimum MSLP, and that this correlation is stronger over sea than land areas. However, this relationship is non-linear, with considerable spread associated with it. Additional results concerning the other measures of intensity will also be presented.Peer reviewe

Classification of extra-tropical cyclones with cluster analysis based on measures of intensity

Non peer reviewe

Volcanically induced increase in extra-tropical cyclone frequency

Non peer reviewe

The Impact of Serial Cyclone Clustering on Extremely High Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea

In the Baltic Sea, sea level variations are often very pronounced. During the winter season, storm surges caused by strong extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have major societal impacts on coastal cities. In this study, using reanalysis-based cyclone tracks and in-situ tide gauge records, we show that serial cyclone clustering (SCC) leads to higher sea levels in the Baltic Sea than situations where only one ETC passes the tide gauge. Consequently, almost half of extreme sea level events in the Baltic Sea are associated with cyclone clustering periods. For example, in Helsinki, 45% of the extreme sea level events coincided with SCC periods of three or more ETCs, while only 6% of the events coincided with a single ETC. Our study represents a significant advance in the understanding of the factors influencing sea level variations in the Baltic Sea.Peer reviewe