A multistate demographic model for firms in the province of Gelderland

In the last two decades researchers from various disciplines have made attempts to model and estimate developments in the size and structure of the population of firms. Although these attempts give useful insights into possible explanatory factors of firm dynamics, the explanatory value, and hence predictive power of these models is usually not very high. In this paper we follow a pure demographic approach for the modelling of firm survival. Important dimensions of the firm are firm age, firm size (in number of employees), economic activity and firm location. Using empirical firm level data for the region of Gelderland in the Netherlands over the period 1986-2002, developments in survival are described and analysed over time in an age-period-cohort perspective. In a later phase of the project, these (aggregated) scenarios will serve as a point of reference for comparisons to more extended model specifications using micro-simulation that include additional explanatory and spatial variables. Keywords: demography of the firm, Age-Period-Cohort model, firm survival, closures

A model of internal firm relocation in the Netherlands

This paper presents a model of internal relocation of firms in the Netherlands. Firm relocation is driven both by firm internal factors, such as growth, age, and type of activity, as well as external factors, relating to the business cycle, the geographical environment, the composition of the labour force, and the composition of the firm popuation, as well as linkages with other firms. Using a unique longitudinal database of firms in the Province of Gelderland in the Netherlands, we specify and estimate two related models of firm relocation. The decomposition of the migration process in two subprocesses is consitent with the theory of a two stage decision process, whereby in th first stage the firm decides to move, and in the second step it chooses an alternative destination. Different factors are important in both stages of the process.

Introduction to the Special Section on FM 2021

Formal methods have been used in a wide range of domains, including software, cyber-physical systems, and integrated computer-based systems. In recent years, we have seen in particular the application of formal methods in a wide range of areas, such as systems-of-systems, security, artificial intelligence, human-computer interaction, manufacturing, sustainability, power, transport, smart cities, healthcare, and biology. Formal methods also get used more and more in industry. All of these developments are supported by the design and validation of various formal method tools

Population Scenarios for South Mediterranean Countries 2010-2050. MEDPRO Report No. 2, August 2012

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and its follow-up, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), were created in 2004 and 2008 to strengthen the prosperity, stability and security of all countries and avoid the emergence of new dividing lines between the EU and 16 neighbouring countries, including south Mediterranean countries (SMCs). Demographic factors in both EU and neighbouring countries will influence this goal. This report describes four population growth scenarios for SMCs, obtained using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework on how indicators of fertility, mortality and international migration might change if people in SMCs were to live in different macroeconomic and political contexts. Qualitative scenarios were then operationalized leading to four different quantitative scenarios using assumptions about possible trends in indicators of fertility, mortality and international migration. The paper concludes by reflecting on the results in light of recent political developments in the region

Localization effects of firm startups and closures in the Netherlands

In this article localization trends as a result of startups and closures are investigated in the Netherlands, using a distance-based approach. A major advantage of this method is that it does not suffer from aggregation bias that is inherent in area-based methods. This method controls for the existing spatial clustering of the industry. Plant openings and closures can either reinforce or weaken the existing localization pattern. We studied these localization tendencies for industries at the one-digit level. The major finding is that plant closures have a strong deconcentration effect, at the local as well as the regional level. Startups have a concentration effect at smaller spatial scales, but beyond 18 km this component also contributes to deconcentration. This result is in line with the spatial process of sprawl for most economic activities. However, results are different for economic sectors, and manufacturing clearly deviates from this general pattern, because it shows a localization trend except at the very small spatial level. Based on these results we do not find much support, except in the manufacturing industry, that industry dynamics in terms of new firm formation and closures, leads to stronger spatial agglomeration tendencies in the Netherlands. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004