State Fiscal Impact of the Succeed Scholarship Program 2016-2017

This report will address the fiscal impact of the SSP for the 2016-17 school year, the first year the program is available for students. As of February 2017 there were 22 students from 13 districts using the program to attend one of the 17 accredited private schools currently participating in the program. For 20 of the students we know which public school district he/she attended in 2015-16. All students must be attending a public school, relocating from out of state, or be members of an active duty military family in order to participate in the program. To estimate the fiscal effect of the program we compare the additional funding the local district would have received from the state if the SSP did not exist and compare it to the tuition cost covered thru the SSP. The difference is the net fiscal effect on the state

Squeezing the Public School Districts: The Fiscal Effect of Eliminating the Louisiana Scholarship Program on State Education Expenditures

Eliminating the Louisiana Scholarship Program (LSP) was proposed as a way to improve the financial situation of the Louisiana Department of Education budget in the current fiscal environment. A study released by the School Choice Demonstration Project (SCDP) found that the net fiscal impact on the Louisiana Department of Education budget would likely be an overall cost increase. In this study, we consider the effects that the removal or reduction of the program would have on individual districts. Districts would receive additional revenue from the state for affected students, but districts would also incur additional costs to educate these students. For each district, we compare the additional costs incurred to the additional funding received from the state. We conclude that the overall fiscal impact on districts will be negative; in other words, the overall additional variable costs incurred by the districts will be greater than the overall additional funding provided to the districts. In fact, we find that only 2 to 7 of the 69 school districts would benefit from the elimination of the program. For the affected districts, the average outcome would be a financial loss of about $1,500 per returning voucher student in 2016. In each scenario, we find that over 80% of student transfers would result in a financial loss for the local district. While we have framed this discussion in terms of the elimination of the LSP, the same analysis would be applicable to any situation that causes students to move from private schools to public schools in Louisiana, including the current funding cap which may force some current LSP students out of the program and has already generated a waitlist of over 400 students for next year

The Societal Impacts of Private School Choice around the World

With the 2016 presidential campaign and the appointment of Betsy DeVos as Education Secretary of the United States, private school choice – in the form of vouchers, tuition tax-credits, and education savings accounts – has become increasingly policy relevant. While an introduction of competitive pressures into the schooling sector may improve educational quality levels, the effects on societal outcomes such as national test scores, student effort, and criminality may be less clear. After all, traditional public schools were created to ensure that children from diverse backgrounds became proper citizens. These three dissertation chapters empirically examine a largely underexplored area: the societal impacts of private school choice around the world. The chapters explore the effects of private school choice on international student test scores, student effort, and student criminality using quasi-experimental methodology. The results suggest that private schooling improves student test scores and reduces the proclivity of students to commit crimes as adults. The analyses also suggest that private schooling increases student effort on international tests and decreases student effort on long surveys after international exams. I discuss each of these findings as they relate to the academic literature and current education policy debates

Does Choice Matter for School Choice? An Instrumental Variables Analysis of the Effect of Choice on Parental Satisfaction in Charter Schools

I employ ordered probit regression, and a new instrumental variable, to compare the fall 2015 parental satisfaction survey results of open-enrollment charters to district-conversion charters. The results indicate that choice status in Arkansas charter schools is significantly beneficial to parental-satisfaction. In particular, after controlling for student and parent-level characteristics, parents with children in open-enrollment charters had between a 17-percentage point and 32-percentage point higher likelihood of grading their current school as an A or responding as Highly Satisfied in six of the quality categories: Overall, Teacher, Discipline, Learning, Safety and Parental-Involvement. Four of the relationships remain large and statistically-significant in the instrumental variables analysis. I find no evidence that parents in either choice setting rate the quality of schools similar to the experts at the Arkansas Department of Education. Finally, I do not find any significant differences for any of the parental-satisfaction categories between oversubscribed and non-oversubscribed schools

Does Private Schooling Improve International Test Scores? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

I estimate the effect of private schooling on Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) scores of 62 countries across the globe from 2000 to 2012. I employ time and country-fixed effects regression models and also use the short-run demand for schooling within a country and year as an instrument for private share of schooling enrollment. I find evidence to suggest that increased private schooling leads to improved PISA scores around the world. Specifically, the model using control variables alongside country and year fixed effects finds that a one percentage point increase in the private share of schooling enrollment is associated with a 1.6-point increase in math scores and a 1.2-point increase in reading scores. However, only one of the two relationships remains statistically significant in the instrumental variables analysis

More Graduates, Less Criminals? The Economic Impacts of the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program

Although an abundance of research indicates that private schooling can benefit individual children through higher test scores, the effects on society are less clear. We monetize and forecast the social impacts of the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP) in the United States. We use existing literature on the impacts of the MPCP on criminal activity and graduation rates. Between 2016 and 2035, students who use a voucher in the MPCP will generate additional economic benefits of $473 million associated with higher graduation rates, and$26 million associated with fewer felonies and misdemeanors, relative to their traditional public school peers

Private School Choice and Character: More Evidence from Milwaukee

We examine the effects of Milwaukee’s school voucher program on adult criminal activity and paternity suits. Using matched student-level data, we find that exposure to the program in 8th or 9th grade predicts lower rates of conviction for criminal activity and lower rates of paternity suits by ages 25 to 28. Specifically, exposure to the MPCP is associated with a reduction of around 53 percent in drug convictions, 86 percent in property damage convictions, and 38 percent in paternity suits. The program effects tend to be largest for males and students with lower levels of academic achievement at baseline

Does Regulation Induce Homogenization? An Analysis of Three Voucher Programs in the United States

We employ school and year fixed-effects regression to determine the effect of voucher programs on the supply of private schools. In particular, we examine individual private schools in Washington, D.C., Indiana, and Louisiana as they transition into voucher program environments. We leverage the Private School Universe Survey to examine how schools self-identify before and after switching into voucher environments. We find that upon switching into school voucher programs, private schools in more heavily regulated programs are more likely to identify as less specialized than they were prior to entering the program, and that those schools in more lightly regulated environments continue to highlight their specialized approach to education. These findings are examined within an institutional theory framework to understand the potential homogenizing effect of regulations on the diversity of the private school market

Deal or No Deal? The Effects of Deregulation on Public School Leaders’ Support for Private School Choice in California

Public school leaders might be more likely to support private school voucher programs if they are enacted alongside public school deregulations. We use a survey experiment to examine the effects of public school deregulations on actual public school leaders’ support for a hypothetical private school voucher program in California. We do not find evidence to suggest that public school deregulations affect public school leaders’ support for private school vouchers overall. However, we unexpectedly find that deregulations related to teacher certification and administration of standardized tests further decrease support for private school choice for leaders of large public schools. This unexpected result may be explained by expected adjustment costs or regulatory capture

What Leads to Successful School Choice Programs? A Review of the Theories and Evidence

There is a large body of thorough research showing many positive benefits of school choice. However, many questions remain on how school choice works. Rigorous school choice experiments can only determine if access to school choice programs alters student outcomes; they cannot confidently identify the specific mechanisms that mediate various outcomes. Two commonly theorized mechanisms in school choice programs that lead to positive outcomes are (1) an increased access to higher-quality schools and (2) an improved match between schools and students. We examine the existing empirical evidence and the theoretical arguments for these two primary mechanisms. While there is evidence supporting both mechanisms, no studies are able to isolate the effect of quality schools independent of families selecting schools that match their preferences. Since the majority of this research is descriptive and has limited causal interpretation, theory is essential in guiding interpretation and policy implications. Theory suggests that people make choices based on what they believe to be the best match for their children, and those choices lead to incentives for individual schools to improve. We conclude with policy recommendations based on our summary of the literature