The contribution of tropical cyclones to the atmospheric branch of Middle America's hydrological cycle using observed and reanalysis tracks

Middle America is affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) from the Eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic Oceans. We characterize the regional climatology (1998-2016) of the TC contributions to the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle, from May to December. TC contributions to rainfall are quantified using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42 and TC tracks derived from three sources: the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), and an objective feature tracking method applied to the Japanese 55-year and ERA-Interim reanalyses. From July to October, TCs contribute 10-30% of rainfall over the west and east coast of Mexico and central Mexico, with the largest monthly contribution during September over the Baja California Peninsula (up to 90%). TCs are associated with 40-60% of daily extreme rainfall (above the 95th percentile) over the coasts of Mexico. IBTrACS and reanalyses agree on TC contributions over the Atlantic Ocean but disagree over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and continent; differences over the continent are mainly attributed to discrepancies in TC tracks in proximity to the coast and TC lifetime. Reanalysis estimates of TC moisture transports show that TCs are an important moisture source for the regional water budget. TC vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF) convergence can turn regions of weak VIMF divergence by the mean circulation into regions of weak VIMF convergence. We discuss deficiencies in the observed and reanalysis TC tracks, which limit our ability to quantify robustly the contribution of TCs to the regional hydrological cycle

Tropical cyclone track and structure sensitivity to initialization in idealized simulations: A preliminary study

In the absence of environmental steering, tropical cyclone (TC) motion largely reflects "beta drift" owing to differential planetary vorticity advection by the storm's outer circulation. It is known that model physics choices (especially those relating to convection) can significantly alter these outer winds and thus the storm track. Here, semi-idealized simulations are used to explore the influence of the initialization on subsequent vortex evolution and motion. Specifically, TCs bred from a buoyant "bubble" are compared to bogussed vortices having a wide variety of parameterized shapes and sizes matching observations. As expected, the bogussed storms commencing with the strongest outer winds propagated fastest and, as a result, huge structure-dependent position differences quickly appeared. However, the forward speed variation among the initially bogussed TCs subsequently declined as a progressive homogenization harmonized the initially supplied structural differences. The homogenization likely involved model physics such as microphysics. This result casts doubt on the ability of models to retain and propagate forward information supplied at the initialization by advanced data assimilation techniques or parameterized vortex wind profiles. Asymmetries in near-core convective heating emerged as an important structural aspect that survived the homogenization tendency. The bubble and bogussed TCs developed markedly different heating patterns, which appear to help explain why the artificially-established storms tended to move about three times faster than their bubble counterparts. The reasons for this are not presently understood fully

Influence of cloud-radiative forcing on tropical cyclone structure

The authors demonstrate how and why cloud-radiative forcing (CRF), the interaction of hydrometeors with longwave and shortwave radiation, can influence tropical cyclone structure through "semi idealized"integrations of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) and an axisymmetric cloud model. Averaged through a diurnal cycle, CRF consists of pronounced cooling along the anvil top and weak warming through the cloudy air, which locally reverses the large net cooling that occurs in the troposphere under clear-sky conditions. CRF itself depends on the microphysics parameterization and represents one of the major reasons why simulations can be sensitive to microphysical assumptions. By itself, CRF enhances convective activity in the tropical cyclone's outer core, leading to a wider eye, a broader tangential wind field, and a stronger secondary circulation. This forcing also functions as a positive feedback, assisting in the development of a thicker and more radially extensive anvil than would otherwise have formed. These simulations clearly show that the weak (primarily longwave) warming within the cloud anvil is the major component of CRF, directly forcing stronger upper-tropospheric radial outflow as well as slow, yet sustained, ascent throughout the outer core. In particular, this ascent leads to enhanced convective heating, which in turn broadens the wind field, as demonstrated with dry simulations using realistic heat sources. As a consequence, improved tropical cyclone forecasting in operational models may depend on proper representation of cloud-radiative processes, as they can strongly modulate the size and strength of the outer wind field that can potentially influence cyclone track as well as the magnitude of the storm surge. © 2014 American Meteorological Society

Tropical cyclone track and structure sensitivity to initialization in idealized simulations: A preliminary study

In the absence of environmental steering, tropical cyclone (TC) motion largely reflects "beta drift" owing to differential planetary vorticity advection by the storm's outer circulation. It is known that model physics choices (especially those relating to convection) can significantly alter these outer winds and thus the storm track. Here, semi-idealized simulations are used to explore the influence of the initialization on subsequent vortex evolution and motion. Specifically, TCs bred from a buoyant "bubble" are compared to bogussed vortices having a wide variety of parameterized shapes and sizes matching observations. As expected, the bogussed storms commencing with the strongest outer winds propagated fastest and, as a result, huge structure-dependent position differences quickly appeared. However, the forward speed variation among the initially bogussed TCs subsequently declined as a progressive homogenization harmonized the initially supplied structural differences. The homogenization likely involved model physics such as microphysics. This result casts doubt on the ability of models to retain and propagate forward information supplied at the initialization by advanced data assimilation techniques or parameterized vortex wind profiles. Asymmetries in near-core convective heating emerged as an important structural aspect that survived the homogenization tendency. The bubble and bogussed TCs developed markedly different heating patterns, which appear to help explain why the artificially-established storms tended to move about three times faster than their bubble counterparts. The reasons for this are not presently understood fully

The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Part I: Cyclone evolution and direct impacts

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from themeso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as NorthAtlanticHurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ETin reanalysis, observational, andmodel-forecast datasets are discussed.New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, somechallenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication

Cluster analysis of post-landfall tracks of landfalling tropical cyclones over China

In this paper, we apply finite-mixture-model-based clustering algorithms to cluster post-landfall tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over China. Because existing studies find that landfall surfaces or elevations affect post-landfall TC movements, we also take account of elevations in addition to time orders in this model. Our study reveals three clusters, with cluster 1 making landfall in Hainan province and moving across the western coast of Guangdong province. Most of the TC tracks in cluster 1 move over the ocean and make secondary landfalls over Yunnan province of China and Vietnam. Cluster 1 finally dissipates inland and moves westward as a result of the westward-shift subtropical high, westward steering flow, easterly vertical wind shear and strong mountainous blocking. Cluster 2 makes landfall over Guangdong and Fujian provinces. TCs in cluster 2 subsequently move inland and disappear due largely to westward-shift subtropical high, easterly steering flow, easterly vertical wind shear and relatively strong mountainous blocking. Cluster 3 makes landfall along the Fujian and Zhejiang coast and sustains a long period of time, recurving mostly to the mid-latitude region owing to the surrounding eastward-shift subtropical high, westerly vertical wind shear, weak mountainous blocking and westerly steering flow. Because cluster 2 is significantly associated with La Niña events, TCs more li kely make landfall over southeastern China coast and move westward or northwestward without recurving. Cluster 3 sustains a longer time than clusters 1 and 2 in spite of its weak horizontal and vertical water vapor supply. TCs in cluster 3 interact actively with westerlies during the post-landfall period. However, we cannot observe any analogous interactions with the mid-latitude westerlies in clusters 1 and 2. TCs of clusters 1 and 2 are influenced by summer monsoon flows. Moreover, summer monsoon exerts a greater influence on cluster 1 than cluster 2. The composite 200 hPa divergence of cluster 3 is stronger than that of clusters 1 and 2. This explains to some degree why cluster 3 sustains longer than clusters 1 and 2 after making landfall