Sharing the burden: monetary and fiscal responses to a world liquidity trap

With integrated trade and financial markets, a collapse in aggregate demand in a large country can cause "natural real interest rates" to fall below zero in all countries, giving rise to a global "liquidity trap." This paper explores the optimal policy response to this type of shock, when governments cooperate on both fiscal and monetary policy. Adjusting to a large negative demand shock requires raising world aggregate demand, as well as redirecting demand towards the source (home) country. ; The key feature of demand shocks in a liquidity trap is that relative prices respond perversely. A negative shock causes an appreciation of the home terms of trade, exacerbating the slump in the home country. At the zero bound, the home country cannot counter this shock. Because of this, it may be optimal for the foreign policymaker to raise interest rates. ; Strikingly, the foreign country may choose to have a positive policy interest rate, even though its natural real interest rate is below zero. A combination of relatively tight monetary policy in the foreign country combined with substantial fiscal expansion in the home country achieves the desired mix in terms of the level and composition of world expenditure. Thus, in response to conditions generating a global liquidity trap, there is a critical mutual interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy ; Interest rates

Cognitive consequences of clumsy automation on high workload, high consequence human performance

The growth of computational power has fueled attempts to automate more of the human role in complex problem solving domains, especially those where system faults have high consequences and where periods of high workload may saturate the performance capacity of human operators. Examples of these domains include flightdecks, space stations, air traffic control, nuclear power operation, ground satellite control rooms, and surgical operating rooms. Automation efforts may have unanticipated effects on human performance, particularly if they increase the workload at peak workload times or change the practitioners' strategies for coping with workload. Smooth and effective changes in automation requires detailed understanding of the congnitive tasks confronting the user: it has been called user centered automation. The introduction of a new computerized technology in a group of hospital operating rooms used for heart surgery was observed. The study revealed how automation, especially 'clumsy automation', effects practitioner work patterns and suggest that clumsy automation constrains users in specific and significant ways. Users tailor both the new system and their tasks in order to accommodate the needs of process and production. The study of this tailoring may prove a powerful tool for exposing previously hidden patterns of user data processing, integration, and decision making which may, in turn, be useful in the design of more effective human-machine systems

AGROINDUSTRIALIZATION IN EMERGING MARKETS: OVERVIEW AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT

This article offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization. It reviews eleven articles analyzing the agroindustrialization process in Latin America and Asia. It sets out a conceptual framework from the organizational economics and strategic management literature to enhance the understanding of the process of agroindustrialization from a competitive strategy point of view.Agribusiness, Industrial Organization,

Exotic Meson Decay Widths using Lattice QCD

A decay width calculation for a hybrid exotic meson h, with JPC=1-+, is presented for the channel h->pi+a1. This quenched lattice QCD simulation employs Luescher's finite box method. Operators coupling to the h and pi+a1 states are used at various levels of smearing and fuzzing, and at four quark masses. Eigenvalues of the corresponding correlation matrices yield energy spectra that determine scattering phase shifts for a discrete set of relative pi+a1 momenta. Although the phase shift data is sparse, fits to a Breit-Wigner model are attempted, resulting in a decay width of about 60 MeV when averaged over two lattice sizes.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, RevTex4, minor change to Fig.

Sharing the Burden: Monetary and Fiscal Responses to a World Liquidity Trap

With integrated trade and financial markets, a collapse in aggregate demand in a large country can cause ‘natural real interest rates’ to fall below zero in all countries, giving rise to a global ‘liquidity trap’. This paper explores the policy choices that maximize the joint welfare of all countries following such a shock, when governments cooperate on both fiscal and monetary policy. Adjusting to a large negative demand shock requires raising world aggregate demand, as well as redirecting demand towards the source (home) country. The key feature of demand shocks in a liquidity trap is that relative prices respond perversely. A negative shock causes an appreciation of the home terms of trade, exacerbating the slump in the home country. At the zero bound, the home country cannot counter this shock. Because of this, it may be optimal for the foreign policy-maker to raise interest rates. Strikingly, the foreign country may choose to have a positive policy interest rate, even though its ‘natural real interest rate’ is below zero. A combination of relatively tight monetary policy in the foreign country combined with substantial fiscal expansion in the home country achieves the level and composition of world expenditure that maximizes the joint welfare of the home and foreign country. Thus, in response to conditions generating a global liquidity trap, there is a critical mutual interaction between monetary and fiscal policy.

Is birthweight associated with total and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer risks? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesised that intrauterine exposures are important for subsequent prostate cancer risk. Prior epidemiological studies have used birthweight as a proxy of cumulative intrauterine exposures to test this hypothesis, but results have been inconsistent partly because of limited statistical power. METHODS: We investigated birthweight in relation to prostate cancer in the Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) using Cox proportional hazards models. We then conducted a meta-analysis of birthweight in relation to total and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer risks, combining results from the NSHD analysis with 13 additional studies on this relationship identified from a systematic search in four major scientific literature databases through January 2015. RESULTS: Random-effects models found that per kg increase in birthweight was positively associated with total (OR=1.02, 95% confidence interval (95% CI)=1.00, 1.05; I(2)=13%) and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer (OR=1.08, 95% CI=0.99, 1.19; I(2)=40%). Sensitivity analyses restricted to studies with birthweight extracted from medical records demonstrated stronger positive associations with total (OR=1.11, 95% CI=1.03, 1.19; I(2)=0%) and aggressive/lethal (OR=1.37, 95% CI=1.09, 1.74; I(2)=0%) prostate cancer. These studies heavily overlapped with those based in Nordic countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that heavier birthweight may be associated with modest increased risks of total and aggressive/lethal prostate cancer, which supports the hypothesis that intrauterine exposures may be related to subsequent prostate cancer risks

A demonstration of motion base design alternatives for the National Advanced Driving Simulator

A demonstration of the capability of NASA's Vertical Motion Simulator to simulate two alternative motion base designs for the National Advanced Driving simulator (NADS) is reported. The VMS is located at ARC. The motion base conditions used in this demonstration were as follows: (1) a large translational motion base; and (2) a motion base design with limited translational capability. The latter had translational capability representative of a typical synergistic motion platform. These alternatives were selected to test the prediction that large amplitude translational motion would result in a lower incidence or severity of simulator induced sickness (SIS) than would a limited translational motion base. A total of 10 drivers performed two tasks, slaloms and quick-stops, using each of the motion bases. Physiological, objective, and subjective measures were collected. No reliable differences in SIS between the motion base conditions was found in this demonstration. However, in light of the cost considerations and engineering challenges associated with implementing a large translation motion base, performance of a formal study is recommended

The Interface between Intellectual Property Law and Competition Law in the North American Context

intellectual property and competition law in North Americ

Predicting the Fracture Toughness of Human Cancellous Bone in Fractured Neck of Femur Patients Using Bone Volume and Micro-Architecture

The current protocol used to determine if an individual is osteoporotic relies on assessment of the individual's bone mineral density (BMD), which allows clinicians to judge the condition of a patient with respect to their peers. This, in essence, evaluates a person's fracture risk, because BMD is a good surrogate measure for strength and stiffness. In recent studies, the authors were the first to produce fracture toughness (FT) data from osteoporotic (OP) and osteoarthritic (OA) patients, by using a testing technique which basically analyzes the prerequisite stress conditions for the onset of growth of a major crack through cancellous bone tissue. FT depends mainly on bone quantity (BV/TV, bone volume/tissue volume), but also on bone micro-architecture (mArch), the inner trabecular design of the bone. The working research hypothesis of the present study is that mArch offers added prediction power to BV/TV in determining FT parameters. Consequently, our aim was to investigate the use of predictive models for fracture toughness and also to investigate if there are any significant differences between the models produced from samples loaded across (A C , transverse to) the main trabecular orientation and along (A L , in parallel) the trabeculae. In multilinear regression analysis, we found that the strength of the relationships varied for a crack growing in these two orthogonal directions. Adding mArch variables in the Ac direction helped to increase the R 2 to 0.798. However, in the A L direction, adding the mArch parameters did not add any predictive power to using BV/TV alone; BV/TV on its own could produce R 2 = 0.730. The present results also imply that the anisotropic layout of the trabeculae makes it more difficult for a major crack to grow transversely across them. Cancellous bone models and remodels itself in a certain way to resist fracture in a specific direction, and thus, we should be mindful that architectural quality as well as bone quantity are needed to understand the resistance to fracture