Referral for specialist follow-up and its association with post-discharge mortality among patients with systolic heart failure (from the National Heart Failure Audit for England and Wales)

For patients admitted with worsening heart failure, early follow-up after discharge is recommended. Whether outcomes can be improved when follow-up is done by cardiologists is uncertain. We aimed to determine the association between cardiology follow-up and risk of death for patients with heart failure discharged from hospital. Using data from the National Heart Failure Audit (England & Wales), we investigated the effect of referral to cardiology follow-up on 30-day and one-year mortality in 68 772 patients with heart failure and a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFREF) discharged from 185 hospitals between 2007 to 2013. The primary analyses used instrumental variable analysis complemented by hierarchical logistic and propensity matched models. At the hospital level, rates of referral to cardiologists varied from 6% to 96%. The median odds ratio (OR) for referral to cardiologist was 2.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1, 2.5), suggesting that, on average, the odds of a patient being referred for cardiologist follow-up after discharge differed approximately 2.3 times from one randomly selected hospital to another one. Based on the proportion of patients (per region) referred for cardiology follow-up, referral for cardiology follow-up was associated with lower 30-day (OR 0.70; CI 0.55, 0.89) and one-year mortality (OR 0.81; CI 0.68, 0.95) compared with no plans for cardiology follow-up (i.e., standard follow-up done by family doctors). Results from hierarchical logistic models and propensity matched models were consistent (30-day mortality OR 0.66; CI 0.61, 0.72 and 0.66; CI 0.58, 0.76 for hierarchical and propensity matched models, respectively). For patients with HFREF admitted to hospital with worsening symptoms, referral to cardiology services for follow-up after discharge is strongly associated with reduced mortality, both early and late

Risk prediction in patients with heart failure: A systematic review and analysis

Objectives This study sought to review the literature for risk prediction models in patients with heart failure and to identify the most consistently reported independent predictors of risk across models. Background Risk assessment provides information about patient prognosis, guides decision making about the type and intensity of care, and enables better understanding of provider performance. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 1995 to March 2013, followed by hand searches of the retrieved reference lists. Studies were eligible if they reported at least 1 multivariable model for risk prediction of death, hospitalization, or both in patients with heart failure and reported model performance. We ranked reported individual risk predictors by their strength of association with the outcome and assessed the association of model performance with study characteristics. Results Sixty-four main models and 50 modifications from 48 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of the 64 main models, 43 models predicted death, 10 hospitalization, and 11 death or hospitalization. The discriminatory ability of the models for prediction of death appeared to be higher than that for prediction of death or hospitalization or prediction of hospitalization alone (p = 0.0003). A wide variation between studies in clinical settings, population characteristics, sample size, and variables used for model development was observed, but these features were not significantly associated with the discriminatory performance of the models. A few strong predictors emerged for prediction of death; the most consistently reported predictors were age, renal function, blood pressure, blood sodium level, left ventricular ejection fraction, sex, brain natriuretic peptide level, New York Heart Association functional class, diabetes, weight or body mass index, and exercise capacity. Conclusions There are several clinically useful and well-validated death prediction models in patients with heart failure. Although the studies differed in many respects, the models largely included a few common markers of risk

Temporal trends and patterns in heart failure incidence: a population-based study of 4 million individuals

Background: Large-scale and contemporary population-based studies of heart failure incidence are needed to inform resource planning and research prioritisation but current evidence is scarce. We aimed to assess temporal trends in incidence and prevalence of heart failure in a large general population cohort from the UK, between 2002 and 2014. Methods: For this population-based study, we used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 4 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a cohort that is representative of the UK population in terms of age and sex. Eligible patients were aged 16 years and older, had contributed data between Jan 1, 2002, and Dec 31, 2014, had an acceptable record according to CPRD quality control, were approved for CPRD and Hospital Episodes Statistics linkage, and were registered with their general practice for at least 12 months. For patients with incident heart failure, we extracted the most recent measurement of baseline characteristics (within 2 years of diagnosis) from electronic health records, as well as information about comorbidities, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population, and we inferred crude rates by applying year-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates. We assumed no heart failure for patients aged 15 years or younger and report total incidence and prevalence for all ages ( > 0 years). Findings: From 2002 to 2014, heart failure incidence (standardised by age and sex) decreased, similarly for men and women, by 7% (from 358 to 332 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio 0·93, 95% CI 0·91–0·94). However, the estimated absolute number of individuals with newly diagnosed heart failure in the UK increased by 12% (from 170 727 in 2002 to 190 798 in 2014), largely due to an increase in population size and age. The estimated absolute number of prevalent heart failure cases in the UK increased even more, by 23% (from 750 127 to 920 616). Over the study period, patient age and multi-morbidity at first presentation of heart failure increased (mean age 76·5 years [SD 12·0] to 77·0 years [12·9], adjusted difference 0·79 years, 95% CI 0·37–1·20; mean number of comorbidities 3·4 [SD 1·9] vs 5·4 [2·5]; adjusted difference 2·0, 95% CI 1·9–2·1). Socioeconomically deprived individuals were more likely to develop heart failure than were affluent individuals (incidence rate ratio 1·61, 95% CI 1·58–1·64), and did so earlier in life than those from the most affluent group (adjusted difference −3·51 years, 95% CI −3·77 to −3·25). From 2002 to 2014, the socioeconomic gradient in age at first presentation with heart failure widened. Socioeconomically deprived individuals also had more comorbidities, despite their younger age. Interpretation: Despite a moderate decline in standardised incidence of heart failure, the burden of heart failure in the UK is increasing, and is now similar to the four most common causes of cancer combined. The observed socioeconomic disparities in disease incidence and age at onset within the same nation point to a potentially preventable nature of heart failure that still needs to be tackled. Funding: British Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research

Incidence, prevalence, and co-occurrence of autoimmune disorders over time and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status: a population-based cohort study of 22 million individuals in the UK

Background: A rise in the incidence of some autoimmune disorders has been described. However, contemporary estimates of the overall incidence of autoimmune diseases and trends over time are scarce and inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the incidence and prevalence of 19 of the most common autoimmune diseases in the UK, assess trends over time, and by sex, age, socioeconomic status, season, and region, and we examine rates of co-occurrence among autoimmune diseases. Methods: In this UK population-based study, we used linked primary and secondary electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a cohort that is representative of the UK population in terms of age and sex and ethnicity. Eligible participants were men and women (no age restriction) with acceptable records, approved for Hospital Episodes Statistics and Office of National Statistics linkage, and registered with their general practice for at least 12 months during the study period. We calculated age and sex standardised incidence and prevalence of 19 autoimmune disorders from 2000 to 2019 and used negative binomial regression models to investigate temporal trends and variation by age, sex, socioeconomic status, season of onset, and geographical region in England. To characterise co-occurrence of autoimmune diseases, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs), comparing incidence rates of comorbid autoimmune disease among individuals with a first (index) autoimmune disease with incidence rates in the general population, using negative binomial regression models, adjusted for age and sex. Findings: Among the 22 009 375 individuals included in the study, 978 872 had a new diagnosis of at least one autoimmune disease between Jan 1, 2000, and June 30, 2019 (mean age 54·0 years [SD 21·4]). 625 879 (63·9%) of these diagnosed individuals were female and 352 993 (36·1%) were male. Over the study period, age and sex standardised incidence rates of any autoimmune diseases increased (IRR 2017–19 vs 2000–02 1·04 [95% CI 1·00–1·09]). The largest increases were seen in coeliac disease (2·19 [2·05–2·35]), Sjogren's syndrome (2·09 [1·84–2·37]), and Graves' disease (2·07 [1·92–2·22]); pernicious anaemia (0·79 [0·72–0·86]) and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (0·81 [0·75–0·86]) significantly decreased in incidence. Together, the 19 autoimmune disorders examined affected 10·2% of the population over the study period (1 912 200 [13·1%] women and 668 264 [7·4%] men). A socioeconomic gradient was evident across several diseases, including pernicious anaemia (most vs least deprived area IRR 1·72 [1·64–1·81]), rheumatoid arthritis (1·52 [1·45–1·59]), Graves' disease (1·36 [1·30–1·43]), and systemic lupus erythematosus (1·35 [1·25–1·46]). Seasonal variations were observed for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (more commonly diagnosed in winter) and vitiligo (more commonly diagnosed in summer), and regional variations were observed for a range of conditions. Autoimmune disorders were commonly associated with each other, particularly Sjögren's syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, and systemic sclerosis. Individuals with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes also had significantly higher rates of Addison's disease (IRR 26·5 [95% CI 17·3–40·7]), coeliac disease (28·4 [25·2–32·0]), and thyroid disease (Hashimoto's thyroiditis 13·3 [11·8–14·9] and Graves' disease 6·7 [5·1–8·5]), and multiple sclerosis had a particularly low rate of co-occurrence with other autoimmune diseases. Interpretation: Autoimmune diseases affect approximately one in ten individuals, and their burden continues to increase over time at varying rates across individual diseases. The socioeconomic, seasonal, and regional disparities observed among several autoimmune disorders in our study suggest environmental factors in disease pathogenesis. The inter-relations between autoimmune diseases are commensurate with shared pathogenetic mechanisms or predisposing factors, particularly among connective tissue diseases and among endocrine diseases

Doping mechanism in pure CuInSe2

We investigate the dopant concentration and majority carrier mobility in epitaxial CuInSe2thin films for different copper-to-indium ratios and selenium excess during growth. We find that all copper-poor samples are n-type, and that hopping conduction in a shallow donor state plays a significant role for carrier transport. Annealing in sodium ambient enhances gallium in-diffusion from the substrate wafer and changes the net doping of the previously n-type samples to p-type. We suggest that sodium incorporation from the glass might be responsible for the observed p-type doping in polycrystalline Cu-poor CuInSe2solar cell absorbers

MycoBank gearing up for new horizons.

MycoBank, a registration system for fungi established in 2004 to capture all taxonomic novelties, acts as a coordination hub between repositories such as Index Fungorum and Fungal Names. Since January 2013, registration of fungal names is a mandatory requirement for valid publication under the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi and plants (ICN). This review explains the database innovations that have been implemented over the past few years, and discusses new features such as advanced queries, registration of typification events (MBT numbers for lecto, epi- and neotypes), the multi-lingual database interface, the nomenclature discussion forum, annotation system, and web services with links to third parties. MycoBank has also introduced novel identification services, linking DNA sequence data to numerous related databases to enable intelligent search queries. Although MycoBank fills an important void for taxon registration, challenges for the future remain to improve links between taxonomic names and DNA data, and to also introduce a formal system for naming fungi known from DNA sequence data only. To further improve the quality of MycoBank data, remote access will now allow registered mycologists to act as MycoBank curators, using Citrix software

Trends in cardiovascular disease incidence among 22 million people in the UK over 20 years: population based study

Objective To investigate the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status, and its variation over time, in the UK during 2000-19. Design Population based study. Setting UK. Participants 1 650 052 individuals registered with a general practice contributing to Clinical Practice Research Datalink and newly diagnosed with at least one CVD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2019. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was incident diagnosis of CVD, comprising acute coronary syndrome, aortic aneurysm, aortic stenosis, atrial fibrillation or flutter, chronic ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, second or third degree heart block, stroke (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, and unspecified), and venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). Disease incidence rates were calculated individually and as a composite outcome of all 10 CVDs combined and were standardised for age and sex using the 2013 European standard population. Negative binomial regression models investigated temporal trends and variation by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Results The mean age of the population was 70.5 years and 47.6% (n=784 904) were women. The age and sex standardised incidence of all 10 prespecified CVDs declined by 19% during 2000-19 (incidence rate ratio 2017-19 v 2000-02: 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.88). The incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke decreased by about 30% (incidence rate ratios for acute coronary syndrome, chronic ischaemic heart disease, and stroke were 0.70 (0.69 to 0.70), 0.67 (0.66 to 0.67), and 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83), respectively). In parallel, an increasing number of diagnoses of cardiac arrhythmias, valve disease, and thromboembolic diseases were observed. As a result, the overall incidence of CVDs across the 10 conditions remained relatively stable from the mid-2000s. Age stratified analyses further showed that the observed decline in coronary heart disease incidence was largely restricted to age groups older than 60 years, with little or no improvement in younger age groups. Trends were generally similar between men and women. A socioeconomic gradient was observed for almost every CVD investigated. The gradient did not decrease over time and was most noticeable for peripheral artery disease (incidence rate ratio most deprived v least deprived: 1.98 (1.87 to 2.09)), acute coronary syndrome (1.55 (1.54 to 1.57)), and heart failure (1.50 (1.41 to 1.59)). Conclusions Despite substantial improvements in the prevention of atherosclerotic diseases in the UK, the overall burden of CVDs remained high during 2000-19. For CVDs to decrease further, future prevention strategies might need to consider a broader spectrum of conditions, including arrhythmias, valve diseases, and thromboembolism, and examine the specific needs of younger age groups and socioeconomically deprived populations

Transformer le secteur de la construction par le numérique : un chantier ambitieux et nécessaire

L’industrie de la construction joue un rôle prépondérant dans l’économie. Malgré son importance, elle fut longtemps décrite comme moins productive et innovante que d’autres secteurs. Depuis quelques années, cette situation semble changer et plusieurs acteurs reconnaissent la nécessité d’innover pour assurer la compétitivité des entreprises. De nouvelles formes de travail émergent grâce à l’introduction de technologies telles que la modélisation des données du bâtiment (BIM), la réalité virtuelle et augmentée, la préfabrication, les objets intelligents, la fabrication additive, les technologies portables, l’automatisation, la robotisation, etc. Au Québec, plusieurs grandes entreprises ont déjà adopté certaines de ces technologies, mais leur mise en œuvre reste encore embryonnaire, en particulier chez les petites entreprises. Selon nombre d’experts, l’utilisation des technologies doit être encouragée afin de créer une véritable transformation numérique de la construction au Québec. Ce chapitre propose une courte analyse de cette transformation et des pistes d’intervention pour le contexte québécois, à partir des tendances observées au niveau international