Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis

This paper investigates co-movements between currency markets of Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Euro in the year following the drying up of money markets in August 2007. The paper shows that assessing the degree of foreign currency co-movement by correlation can lead to concluding, erroneously, that financial contagion has not occurred. Using cross-spectral methods, the paper shows that defining contagion as changes in the structure of co-movements of asset prices encompasses more of the complex nature of exchange rate dynamics. What is shown is that, following August 2007, there is increased in the intensity of co-movements, but non-linearly. Focusing on the activities of a mix of banks and currency managers, it is suggested that changes in the structure of currency interaction present an unfavourable view of the contagion experienced by at least three of these currencies

Portraits of Complex Networks

We propose a method for characterizing large complex networks by introducing a new matrix structure, unique for a given network, which encodes structural information; provides useful visualization, even for very large networks; and allows for rigorous statistical comparison between networks. Dynamic processes such as percolation can be visualized using animations. Applications to graph theory are discussed, as are generalizations to weighted networks, real-world network similarity testing, and applicability to the graph isomorphism problem.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figure

Spin measurements for 147Sm+n resonances: Further evidence for non-statistical effects

We have determined the spins J of resonances in the 147Sm(n,gamma) reaction by measuring multiplicities of gamma-ray cascades following neutron capture. Using this technique, we were able to determine J values for all but 14 of the 140 known resonances below En = 1 keV, including 41 firm J assignments for resonances whose spins previously were either unknown or tentative. These new spin assignments, together with previously determined resonance parameters, allowed us to extract separate level spacings and neutron strength functions for J = 3 and 4 resonances. Furthermore, several statistical test of the data indicate that very few resonances of either spin have been missed below En = 700eV. Because a non-statistical effect recently was reported near En = 350 eV from an analysis of 147Sm(n,alpha) data, we divided the data into two regions; 0 < En < 350 eV and 350 < En < 700 eV. Using neutron widths from a previous measurement and published techniques for correcting for missed resonances and for testing whether data are consistent with a Porter-Thomas distribution, we found that the reduced-neutron-width distribution for resonances below 350 eV is consistent with the expected Porter-Thomas distribution. On the other hand, we found that reduced-neutron-width data in the 350 < En < 700 eV region are inconsistent with a Porter-Thomas distribution, but in good agreement with a chi-squared distribution having two or more degrees of freedom. We discuss possible explanations for these observed non-statistical effects and their possible relation to similar effects previously observed in other nuclides.Comment: 40 pages, 13 figures, accepted by Phys. Rev.

High connectivity among locally adapted populations of a marine fish (Menidia menidia)

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 91 (2010): 3526–3537, doi:10.1890/09-0548.1.Patterns of connectivity are important in understanding the geographic scale of local adaptation in marine populations. While natural selection can lead to local adaptation, high connectivity can diminish the potential for such adaptation to occur. Connectivity, defined as the exchange of individuals among subpopulations, is presumed to be significant in most marine species due to life histories that include widely dispersive stages. However, evidence of local adaptation in marine species, such the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia, raises questions concerning the degree of connectivity. We examined geochemical signatures in the otoliths, or ear bones, of adult Atlantic silversides collected in 11 locations along the northeastern coast of the United States from New Jersey to Maine in 2004 and eight locations in 2005 using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and isotope ratio monitoring mass spectrometry (irm-MS). These signatures were then compared to baseline signatures of juvenile fish of known origin to determine natal origin of these adult fish. We then estimated migration distances and the degree of mixing from these data. In both years, fish generally had the highest probability of originating from the same location in which they were captured (0.01–0.80), but evidence of mixing throughout the sample area was present. Furthermore, adult M. menidia exhibit highly dispersive behavior with some fish migrating over 700 km. The probability of adult fish returning to natal areas differed between years, with the probability being, on average, 0.2 higher in the second year. These findings demonstrate that marine species with largely open populations are capable of local adaptation despite apparently high gene flow.This work was funded by the National Science Foundation (grant OCE-0425830 to D. O. Conover and grant OCE- 0134998 to S. R. Thorrold) and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data

Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme, prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table

Structural and Electronic Properties of Small Neutral (MgO)n Clusters

Ab initio Perturbed Ion (PI) calculations are reported for neutral stoichiometric (MgO)n clusters (n<14). An extensive number of isomer structures was identified and studied. For the isomers of (MgO)n (n<8) clusters, a full geometrical relaxation was considered. Correlation corrections were included for all cluster sizes using the Coulomb-Hartree-Fock (CHF) model proposed by Clementi. The results obtained compare favorably to the experimental data and other previous theoretical studies. Inclusion of correlaiotn is crucial in order to achieve a good description of these systems. We find an important number of new isomers which allows us to interpret the experimental magic numbers without the assumption of structures based on (MgO)3 subunits. Finally, as an electronic property, the variations in the cluster ionization potential with the cluster size were studied and related to the structural isomer properties.Comment: 24 pages, LaTeX, 7 figures in GIF format. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Partisan Asymmetries in Online Political Activity

We examine partisan differences in the behavior, communication patterns and social interactions of more than 18,000 politically-active Twitter users to produce evidence that points to changing levels of partisan engagement with the American online political landscape. Analysis of a network defined by the communication activity of these users in proximity to the 2010 midterm congressional elections reveals a highly segregated, well clustered partisan community structure. Using cluster membership as a high-fidelity (87% accuracy) proxy for political affiliation, we characterize a wide range of differences in the behavior, communication and social connectivity of left- and right-leaning Twitter users. We find that in contrast to the online political dynamics of the 2008 campaign, right-leaning Twitter users exhibit greater levels of political activity, a more tightly interconnected social structure, and a communication network topology that facilitates the rapid and broad dissemination of political information.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 6 table

Inference with interference between units in an fMRI experiment of motor inhibition

An experimental unit is an opportunity to randomly apply or withhold a treatment. There is interference between units if the application of the treatment to one unit may also affect other units. In cognitive neuroscience, a common form of experiment presents a sequence of stimuli or requests for cognitive activity at random to each experimental subject and measures biological aspects of brain activity that follow these requests. Each subject is then many experimental units, and interference between units within an experimental subject is likely, in part because the stimuli follow one another quickly and in part because human subjects learn or become experienced or primed or bored as the experiment proceeds. We use a recent fMRI experiment concerned with the inhibition of motor activity to illustrate and further develop recently proposed methodology for inference in the presence of interference. A simulation evaluates the power of competing procedures.Comment: Published by Journal of the American Statistical Association at http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2012.655954 . R package cin (Causal Inference for Neuroscience) implementing the proposed method is freely available on CRAN at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ci

Human rights culture: solidarity, diversity and the right to be different

The concept of a human rights culture has been crucial to the incorporation of the European Convention of Human Rights into UK law. In this paper media and activist representations of human rights for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender human rights are considered as indicative of an emerging human rights culture, especially around the Civil Partnerships Act 2004. A typology of representations of rights is developed and discussed. It is concluded that insofar as there is an emerging human rights culture, it is one that is concerned above all with creating and maintaining civic relationships rather than with the assertion of individual liberty, and as inviting political compromise rather than a principled stance on universal human rights