토지에 대한 개발이익환수제도의 개편방안(Policy directions for restructuring the betterment from land recapture system)

노트 : 이 연구보고서의 내용은 국토연구원의 자체 연구물로서 정부의 정책이나 견해와는 상관없습니다

Forecasting Commercial Property Values in the Short Term

A system for producing a time series of past valuations of properties based on a current valuation is described. This time series is combined with a leading indicator such as gilts to forecast the valuation series into the future for about eight months ahead. In cases where the leading index is an accurate predictor of the capital series, regression methods give good forecasts. In all cases, neural networks gave better predictions than regression, underlining the non-linear nature of capital time series. A new method for determining the random error in the time series, the Gamma test, is described. The test enables a good embedding to be found for the time series models, and indicates the point at which neural network training should be stopped in order to obtain good models that are neither under-trained nor overfitted to the data. The question of predictability of a time series is raised, which is to be the subject of further research. 2