Commission to Strengthen Social Security

On May 2, President Bush announced establishment of a bipartisan, 16-member Commission "to study and report specific recommendations to preserve Social Security for seniors while building wealth for younger Americans." The Commission will provide bipartisan recommendations to the President for modernizing and restoring fiscal soundness to the Social Security System according to the following principles: modernization must not change Social Security benefits for retirees or near retirees; the entire Social Security surplus must be dedicated to Social Security only; Social Security payroll taxes must not be increased; the Government must not invest Social Security funds in the stock market; modernization must preserve Social Security's disability and survivors components; and modernization must include individually controlled, voluntary personal retirement accounts, which will augment the Social Security safety net

The role of earnings and financial risk in distributional analyses of Social Security reform measures

The Social Security Trustees project that the Social Security program faces longterm financing difficulties. Several proposals that have been offered to shore-up the finances of the Social Security program would create individual retirement accounts funded with part of the payroll tax. The authors of many of these proposals claim that future beneficiaries will be better off under their new system than under the current system. This study examines the consequences of differing earnings patterns and year-to-year differences in asset returns have for Social Security retired worker benefits in three Social Security reform proposals. Incorporating both actual earnings histories and variation in asset returns shows that none of the three individual account plans can always deliver benefits that are higher than payable current-law benefits. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Reforming Public Pensions in the US and the UK

This essay describes the current debate on reforming Social Security in the US, along with a brief description of how the programme works. Along the way it comments on the quality of some reform proposals as well as their political standing. Where issues are similar, some inferences are drawn for the UK. While the focus of this essay is the political debate, the debate and my analysis do draw on the academic literature, which is not surprising since academics have played a number of roles in the debate, making reform proposals, being on and staffing the commission appointed by President Bush, and working for the Bush administration. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.

Knowledge Spillovers and High-technology Clustering: Evidence from Taiwan's Hsinchu Science-Based Industrial Park

Knowledge spillovers of high-technology industries are alleged to be important determinants of industrial clustering. Dynamic production modeling is applied to measure the sectoral and spatial spillover effects to study the implications of various types of knowledge spillovers on high-technology industry clustering in Taiwan's Hsinchu Science-based Industrial Park (HSIP). The analysis is performed using the Taiwanese government's industrial census of technological activities at the micro level with 2340 plants for the period 1986-1995. We find substantive sectoral and spatial knowledge spillover effects, which are considered to be major motivating forces for regional concentration patterns of Taiwan's high-technology industries. (JEL "L10", "O30") Copyright 2005 Western Economic Association International.

Social Security Benefit Uncertainty under Individual Accounts

Social Security reforms that include individual accounts change both the expected benefit and the benefit risk. This article uses a long-term stochastic forecasting model to estimate the distribution of expected benefits under a simple individual account, recognizing uncertainties in the current system. Introducing individual accounts increases the overall variability of benefit levels relative to current law; indeed the standard deviations of expected benefit gains exceed the level of those gains. The increase in uncertainty about benefit replacement rates is even larger, however, because individual accounts partially sever the link between earnings and benefits in the existing system. (JEL H55) Copyright 2005 Western Economic Association International.

Social Security Privatization and Market Risk

Under Social Security privatization, workers would be allowed to divert some of the money that currently goes to Social Security into private accounts. This would expose them to market risk, that is, the risk of a substantial drop in equity prices or of a prolonged bear market. This could result in generations of workers with less money than they thought they would have for retirement. Depending on a worker's birth date, if the privatization approach proposed by President Bush's Commission to Strengthen Social Security had been enacted at the start of the Social Security program, the retirement benefits generated from putting 10% of earnings in a private account for 35 years would have ranged from 100% to less than 20% relative to pre-retirement earnings. The extraordinarily high retirement income generated from the booming 1990s stock market was the equivalent of winning the generational lottery-unlikely to be repeated regularly. Even under these beneficial circumstances, a privatized system could have cost the government more than $1 trillion in today's dollars over the past 3 decades if the government decided to help out those who accumulated too little for retirement. The primary alternative to a government bailout of the Social Security system, older workers working longer, would likely not generate the desired results. Workers wanting to work longer would create labor market pressures typically at times when unemployment is already high. Copyright 2006 by The Policy Studies Organization.