What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 - 1800)?

The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha). This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site's nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000-1800), after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950

The location of Great Zimbabwe.

<p>The location of Great Zimbabwe.</p

A section of the western side of Great Zimbabwe including the Car Park and Maintenance Workshop areas.

<p>The areas where hut concentrations were observed, is also shown.</p

Chinese jade teapot found from the renders ruin at Great Zimbabwe.

<p>Chinese jade teapot found from the renders ruin at Great Zimbabwe.</p

Population estimates for Great Zimbabwe based on the number of homesteads and averages of four and seven people per household (Model 2) (see Fig 2 for the distribution of occupation periods).

<p>Population estimates for Great Zimbabwe based on the number of homesteads and averages of four and seven people per household (Model 2) (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0178335#pone.0178335.g002" target="_blank">Fig 2</a> for the distribution of occupation periods).</p

Estimated number of huts for different components of Great Zimbabwe and corresponding population estimates based on the extreme assumption that every hut had a minimum of four and a maximum of seven people (Model 1) (see Fig 2 for the distribution of occupation periods).

<p>Estimated number of huts for different components of Great Zimbabwe and corresponding population estimates based on the extreme assumption that every hut had a minimum of four and a maximum of seven people (Model 1) (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0178335#pone.0178335.g002" target="_blank">Fig 2</a> for the distribution of occupation periods).</p

Estimated number of houses for the walled and unwalled areas based on surface indications, data from published excavations and estimates of general extent of individual occupation periods.

<p>Estimated number of houses for the walled and unwalled areas based on surface indications, data from published excavations and estimates of general extent of individual occupation periods.</p

Distribution of the major periods of occupation at Great Zimbabwe overlaid with a phosphate map of the site (adapted from [2, 6]).

<p>Distribution of the major periods of occupation at Great Zimbabwe overlaid with a phosphate map of the site (adapted from [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0178335#pone.0178335.ref002" target="_blank">2</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0178335#pone.0178335.ref006" target="_blank">6</a>]).</p

Chinese blue on white porcelain found in the Lower Valley enclosures at Great Zimbabwe.

<p>Chinese blue on white porcelain found in the Lower Valley enclosures at Great Zimbabwe.</p