A model composite assessment of the enhancement of Arctic warming by sea ice retreat

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2006Five global climate models used in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment are utilized to estimate the local enhancement of Arctic warming attributable to sea ice retreat in 21st century B2-scenario greenhouse gas (GHG) simulations. The models show a wide range of ice retreat, resulting in a corresponding range in the enhancement of warming. The enhancement is highly seasonal, varying locally from essentially zero in the summer to several degrees CC) in the late autumn and early winter. The composite climate model response to GHG forcing manifests as a nonlinear amplification of seasonally modulated warming enhancement. The magnitude of the warming enhancement increases with the threshold decline in ice concentration used to define retreat because higher thresholds better isolate the warming enhancement signal over ice retreat areas. A threshold of 20% ensures that all models in this study have enough ice retreat area to sample the enhancement because all start with ice concentrations at least that high over substantial northern hemisphere areas. All estimates are lower bounds because they do not account for advective effects

Symbolic Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Mathematica

Mathematica is a symbolic programming language that empowers the user to undertake complicated algebraic tasks. One such task is the derivation of maximum likelihood estimators, demonstrably an important topic in statistics at both the research and expository level. In this paper, a Mathematica package is provided that contains a function entitled SuperLog. This function utilises pattern-matching code that enhances Mathematica's ability to simplify expressions involving the natural logarithm of a product of algebraic terms. This enhancement to Mathematica's functionality can be of particular benefit for maximum likelihood estimation

Internal agent states : experiments using the swarm leader concept

In recent years, an understanding of the operating principles and stability of natural swarms has proven to be a useful tool for the design and control of artificial robotic agents. Many robotic systems, whose design or control principals are inspired by behavioural aspects of real biological systems such as leader-follower relationship, have been developed. We introduced an algorithm which successfully enhances the navigation performance of a swarm of robots using the swarm leader concept. This paper presents some applications based on that work using the simulations and experimental implementation using a swarming behaviour test-bed at the University of Strathclyde. Experimental and simulation results match closely in a way that confirms the efficiency of the algorithm as well as its applicability

Investigation into background levels of small organic samples at the NERC Radiocarbon Laboratory

Recent progress in preparation/combustion of submilligram organic samples at our laboratories is presented. Routine methods had to be modified/refined to achieve acceptable and consistent procedural blanks for organic samples smaller than 1000 g C. A description of the process leading to a modified combustion method for smaller organic samples is given in detail. In addition to analyzing different background materials, the influence of different chemical reagents on the overall radiocarbon background level was investigated, such as carbon contamination arising from copper oxide of different purities and from different suppliers. Using the modified combustion method, small amounts of background materials and known-age standard IAEA-C5 were individually combusted to CO2. Below 1000 g C, organic background levels follow an inverse mass dependency when combusted with the modified method, increasing from 0.13 0.05 pMC up to 1.20 0.04 pMC for 80 g C. Results for a given carbon mass were lower for combustion of etched Iceland spar calcite mineral, indicating that part of the observed background of bituminous coal was probably introduced by handling the material in atmosphere prior to combustion. Using the modified combustion method, the background-corrected activity of IAEA-C5 agreed to within 2 s of the consensus value of 23.05 pMC down to a sample mass of 55 g C

Crater population and resurfacing of the Martian north polar layered deposits

Present-day accumulation in the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) is thought to occur via deposition on the north polar residual cap. Understanding current mass balance in relation to current climate would provide insight into the climatic record of the NPLD. To constrain processes and rates of NPLD resurfacing, a search for craters was conducted using images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Context Camera. One hundred thirty craters have been identified on the NPLD, 95 of which are located within a region defined to represent recent accumulation. High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images of craters in this region reveal a morphological sequence of crater degradation that provides a qualitative understanding of processes involved in crater removal. A classification system for these craters was developed based on the amount of apparent degradation and infilling and where possible depth/diameter ratios were determined. The temporal and spatial distribution of crater degradation is interpreted to be close to uniform. Through comparison of the size-frequency distribution of these craters with the expected production function, the craters are interpreted to be an equilibrium population with a crater of diameter D meters having a lifetime of ~30.75D^(1.14) years. Accumulation rates within these craters are estimated at 7.2D^(−0.14) mm/yr, which corresponds to values of ~3–4 mm/yr and are much higher than rates thought to apply to the surrounding flat terrain. The current crater population is estimated to have accumulated in the last ~20 kyr or less

Progress in AMS target production in sub-milligram samples at the NERC Radiocarbon Laboratory

. Recent progress in graphite target production for sub-milligram environmental samples in our facility is presented. We describe an optimized hydrolysis procedure now routinely used for the preparation of CO2 from inorganic samples, a new high-vacuum line dedicated to small sample processing (combining sample distillation and graphitization units), as well as a modified graphitization procedure. Although measurements of graphite targets as small as 35 µg C have been achieved, system background and measurement uncertainties increase significantly below 150 µg C. As target lifetime can become critically short for targets <150 µg C, the facility currently only processes inorganic samples down to 150 µg C. All radiocarbon measurements are made at the Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC) accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) facility. Sample processing and analysis are labor-intensive, taking approximately 3 times longer than samples ≥500 µg C. The technical details of the new system, graphitization yield, fractionation introduced during the process, and the system blank are discussed in detail