Measuring time preferences

We review research that measures time preferences—i.e., preferences over intertemporal tradeoffs. We distinguish between studies using financial flows, which we call “money earlier or later” (MEL) decisions and studies that use time-dated consumption/effort. Under different structural models, we show how to translate what MEL experiments directly measure (required rates of return for financial flows) into a discount function over utils. We summarize empirical regularities found in MEL studies and the predictive power of those studies. We explain why MEL choices are driven in part by some factors that are distinct from underlying time preferences.National Institutes of Health (NIA R01AG021650 and P01AG005842) and the Pershing Square Fund for Research in the Foundations of Human Behavior

Monetary benefits of preventing childhood lead poisoning with lead-safe window replacement

Previous estimates of childhood lead poisoning prevention benefits have quantified the present value of some health benefits, but not the costs of lead paint hazard control or the benefits associated with housing and energy markets. Because older housing with lead paint constitutes the main exposure source today in the U.S., we quantify health benefits, costs, market value benefits, energy savings, and net economic benefits of lead-safe window replacement (which includes paint stabilization and other measures). The benefit per resident child from improved lifetime earnings alone is $21,195 in pre-1940 housing and$8,685 in 1940-59 housing (in 2005 dollars). Annual energy savings are $130 to$486 per housing unit, with or without young resident children, with an associated increase in housing market value of $5,900 to$14,300 per housing unit, depending on home size and number of windows replaced. Net benefits are $4,490 to$5,629 for each housing unit built before 1940, and $491 to$1,629 for each unit built from 1940-1959, depending on home size and number of windows replaced. Lead-safe window replacement in all pre-1960 U.S. housing would yield net benefits of at least $67 billion, which does not include many other benefits. These other benefits, which are shown in this paper, include avoided Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, other medical costs of childhood lead exposure, avoided special education, and reduced crime and juvenile delinquency in later life. In addition, such a window replacement effort would reduce peak demand for electricity, carbon emissions from power plants, and associated long-term costs of climate change.Lead Poisoning, IQ, Energy Efficiency, Cost Benefit Analysis, Housing, Climate Change

Evolutionary game dynamics of controlled and automatic decision-making

We integrate dual-process theories of human cognition with evolutionary game theory to study the evolution of automatic and controlled decision-making processes. We introduce a model where agents who make decisions using either automatic or controlled processing compete with each other for survival. Agents using automatic processing act quickly and so are more likely to acquire resources, but agents using controlled processing are better planners and so make more effective use of the resources they have. Using the replicator equation, we characterize the conditions under which automatic or controlled agents dominate, when coexistence is possible, and when bistability occurs. We then extend the replicator equation to consider feedback between the state of the population and the environment. Under conditions where having a greater proportion of controlled agents either enriches the environment or enhances the competitive advantage of automatic agents, we find that limit cycles can occur, leading to persistent oscillations in the population dynamics. Critically, however, these limit cycles only emerge when feedback occurs on a sufficiently long time scale. Our results shed light on the connection between evolution and human cognition, and demonstrate necessary conditions for the rise and fall of rationality.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

Broadcasting Flu Messages – Citywide Transmission and Community Reception: An Evaluation of Ready New York’s pandemic influenza outreach campaign

Public health risk communication is a central feature of New York City’s pandemic flu preparedness plan. Particularly in the early stages of a pandemic, before effective therapeutic measures are available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, personal protective hygiene, and voluntary isolation are critical strategies for suppressing the spread of a novel viral strain. New York City health and emergency management officials have decided to use the city’s risk communication structure – the Office of Emergency Management’s Ready New York outreach and dissemination capacities – as one of the primary means to communicate pandemic flu health messages. In October 2008, NCDP contracted with Public Health Solutions and the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) to evaluate the reach and effectiveness of its planned Ready NY Pandemic Flu community outreach campaign

The evolution and devolution of cognitive control : the costs of deliberation in a competitive world

Dual-system theories of human cognition, under which fast automatic processes can complement or compete with slower deliberative processes, have not typically been incorporated into larger scale population models used in evolutionary biology, macroeconomics, or sociology. However, doing so may reveal important phenomena at the population level. Here, we introduce a novel model of the evolution of dual-system agents using a resource-consumption paradigm. By simulating agents with the capacity for both automatic and controlled processing, we illustrate how controlled processing may not always be selected over rigid, but rapid, automatic processing. Furthermore, even when controlled processing is advantageous, frequency-dependent effects may exist whereby the spread of control within the population undermines this advantage. As a result, the level of controlled processing in the population can oscillate persistently, or even go extinct in the long run. Our model illustrates how dual-system psychology can be incorporated into population-level evolutionary models, and how such a framework can be used to examine the dynamics of interaction between automatic and controlled processing that transpire over an evolutionary time scale

Loss of buoyancy control in the copepod Calanus finmarchicus

A mechanism is demonstrated that could explain large-scale aggregations of lipid-rich copepods in the surface waters of marine environments. Laboratory experiments establish that changes in salinity and temperature induce lipid-mediated buoyancy instability that entrains copepods in surface waters. Reduced hydrostatic pressure associated with forced ascent of copepods at fjordic sills, shelf breaks and seamounts would also reduce the density of the lipid reserves, forcing copepods and particularly those in diapause to the surface. We propose that salinity, temperature and hydrodynamics of the physical environment, in conjunction with the biophysical properties of lipids, explain periodic high abundances of lipid-rich copepods in surface waters