Nitrogen Oxides Emissions, Abatement Technologies and Related Costs for Europe in the RAINS Model Database

This paper describes the module of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model dealing with the potential and costs for controlling emissions of nitrogen oxides. The paper discusses the selected aggregation level of the emission generating activities and reviews the major options for controlling NOx emissions. Algorithms for estimating emission control costs for stationary and mobile sources are presented. The cost calculation distinguishes 'general' (i.e., valid for all countries) and 'country-specific' parameters in order to capture characteristic technology- and site-specific factors influencing the actual costs of applying a certain measure under a given condition. The methodology is illustrated by two examples for typical control technologies (combustion modification together with selective catalytic reduction for power plant boilers and catalytic converters for cars). Finally, the method for constructing emission batement cost curves showing the relationships between the level of remaining emissions and the associated cost is explained. The general parameters used for cost calculation are presented in the main body of the report, while all country-specific parameters are contained in a number of appendices. Furthermore, energy scenarios as they are currently implemented in the RAINS model and the resulting cost curves for NOx control related to these energy scenarios are presented in these annexes

Sulfur Emissions, Abatement Technologies and Related Costs for Europe in the RAINS Model Database

This paper describes the part of the Regional Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model dealing with the potential and costs controlling emissions of sulfur dioxide. The paper describes the selected aggregation level of the emission generating activities and reviews the major options for controlling SO2 emissions. An algorithm for estimating emission control costs is presented. The cost calculation distinguishes 'general'(i.e., valid for all countries) and 'country-specific' parameters in order to capture characteristic technology- and site-specific factors influencing the actual costs of applying a certain measure under a given condition. The methodology is illustrated by two examples for typical control technologies (wet flue gas desulfurization and the use of low-sulfur gas oil). Finally, the method for constructing emission abatement cost curves showing the relationships between the level of remaining emissions and the associated costs is explained. The general parameters used in the cost calculations are presented in the main body of the report, while all country-specific parameters are contained in a number of appendices. In addition, these country-specific appendices present the energy scenarios as they are currently implemented in the RAINS model, and the resulting cost curves for SO2 control related to these energy scenarios

The Potential for further Control of Emissions of Fine Particulate Matter in Europe

This report examines the possible evolution of emissions of primary particulate matter in Europe up to 2020 as a consequence of further economic development and progressing implementation of emission control legislation, in particular of the Protocols that also influence primary emissions of PM. Furthermore, it explores the potential for further PM emission reductions through extensions of the existing protocols (i) to additional countries, (ii) by stricter emission limit values, and (iii) to other sectors. Based on the implementation of the RAINS model as it was used for the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) program of the European Commission, the report analyses three emission control cases: (i) the situation in the year 2000, (ii) the current legislation case for 2020, and (iii) a case with further control measures. Results are presented for three groups of countries: (i) the 15 old Member States of the European Union, Norway and Switzerland, (ii) the 10 new Member States, and (iii) the other countries in Europe including the European area of Russia and Turkey. The analysis concludes that primary emissions of PM are expected to decline in the future due to current legislation, between 2000 and 2020 by approx. 40-45 percent in the EU-25 and by 8-9 percent in the non-EU countries. Tightened emission limit values in a potential revision of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols would have a relatively small effect on total PM emissions in 2020, especially if the protocols would not receive ratifications from additional Parties. In the EU-25, PM2.5 emissions would decline in 2020 at maximum by an additional 7 percent if the most advanced technical measures were implemented. A significantly larger reduction potential could be harvested through ratification and subsequent implementation of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols by additional Parties. This could reduce PM2.5 emissions in the non-EU countries by up to 25 percent in 2020 compared to the current legislation situation. While the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols contain obligations for PM emissions from certain emission sources, in 2020 the majority of PM emissions is expected to originate from sources for which these protocols do not specify emission limit values. For the EU-25, about 80 percent of the identified technical potential for further PM reductions emerges from sources that are not covered in the Protocols. In the non-EU countries, more than 60 percent of the technical reduction potential relates to these sources. Approximately two thirds of this technical reduction potential from the non-protocol sectors emerge from small non-industrial combustion sources, especially wood and coal stoves

Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario

The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA): Environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

With the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models, ...). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios

The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions

The evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation. After increasing until about 2006, we estimate a declining trend continuing until 2011. However, there is strong spatial variability, with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions, with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping. China remains a key contributor, but the introduction of stricter emission limits followed by an ambitious program of installing flue gas desulfurization on power plants resulted in a significant decline in emissions from the energy sector and stabilization of total Chinese SO2 emissions. Comparable mitigation strategies are not yet present in several other Asian countries and industrial sectors in general, while emissions from international shipping are expected to start declining soon following an international agreement to reduce the sulfur content of fuel oil. The estimated trends in global SO2 emissions are within the range of representative concentration pathway (RCP) projections and the uncertainty previously estimated for the year 2005

The impact of air pollutant and methane emission controls on tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing: CTM calculations for the period 1990-2030

To explore the relationship between tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing with changing emissions, we compiled two sets of global scenarios for the emissions of the ozone precursors methane (CH₄), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) up to the year 2030 and implemented them in two global Chemistry Transport Models. The 'Current Legislation' (CLE) scenario reflects the current perspectives of individual countries on future economic development and takes the anticipated effects of presently decided emission control legislation in the individual countries into account. In addition, we developed a 'Maximum technically Feasible Reduction' (MFR) scenario that outlines the scope for emission reductions offered by full implementation of the presently available emission control technologies, while maintaining the projected levels of anthropogenic activities. Whereas the resulting projections of methane emissions lie within the range suggested by other greenhouse gas projections, the recent pollution control legislation of many Asian countries, requiring introduction of catalytic converters for vehicles, leads to significantly lower growth in emissions of the air pollutants NO_x, NMVOC and CO than was suggested by the widely used and more pessimistic IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), which made Business-as-Usual assumptions regarding emission control technology. With the TM3 and STOCHEM models we performed several long-term integrations (1990-2030) to assess global, hemispheric and regional changes in CH₄, CO, hydroxyl radicals, ozone and the radiative climate forcings resulting from these two emission scenarios. Both models reproduce broadly the observed trends in CO, and CH₄ concentrations from 1990 to 2002. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> For the 'current legislation' case, both models indicate an increase of the annual average ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere by 5ppbv, and up to 15ppbv over the Indian sub-continent, comparing the 2020s (2020-2030) with the 1990s (1990-2000). The corresponding higher ozone and methane burdens in the atmosphere increase radiative forcing by approximately 0.2 Wm^-2. Full application of today's emissions control technologies, however, would bring down ozone below the levels experienced in the 1990s and would reduce the radiative forcing of ozone and methane to approximately -0.1 Wm^-2. This can be compared to the 0.14-0.47 Wm^-2 increase of methane and ozone radiative forcings associated with the SRES scenarios. While methane reductions lead to lower ozone burdens and to less radiative forcing, further reductions of the air pollutants NO_x and NMVOC result in lower ozone, but at the same time increase the lifetime of methane. Control of methane emissions appears an efficient option to reduce tropospheric ozone as well as radiative forcing

GAINS: The impact of economic crisis on GHG mitigation potentials and costs in Annex I Countries

This report analyzes how GHG mitigation potentials and costs in the Annex I countries of the UNFCCC are influenced by the current economic crisis