Interpretation of the Expected Value of Perfect Information and Research Recommendations:A Systematic Review and Empirical Investigation

calculations are increasingly performed to guide and underpin research recommendations. An EVPI value that exceeds the estimated cost of research forms a necessary (although not sufficient) condition for further research to be considered worthwhile. However, it is unclear what factors affect researchers ’ recommendations and whether there is a notional threshold of positive returns below which research is not recommended. The objectives of this study were to explore whether EVPI and other factors have a bearing on research recommendations and to assess whether there exists a threshold EVPI below which research is typically not recommended. Methods. A systematic lit-erature review was undertaken to identify applied EVPI calculations in the health care field. Study characteris-tics were extracted, including funder, location, diseas

A Health Economics Response to the Review of the Liverpool Care Pathway

Background: In 2011 the Palliative Care Funding Review highlighted concerns about the funding, provision, and quality of care at the end of life. Two years on, an independent review of the Liverpool Care Pathway—prompted by a storm of negative media coverage— has raised concerns around a lack of funding, availability of support for the dying and their relatives, and patient centered care. There are recommendations to increase funding through a national tariff for palliative care services, address inconsistencies, and replace the Liverpool Care Pathway with individual end-of-life care plans. Objective: This paper explores the economic implications of the review's recommendations and links these to inadequacies with the current economic framework currently recommended for use in the United Kingdom by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, before highlighting aspects of ongoing research aimed at addressing these inadequacies. Methods: As well as the published report More Care, Less Pathway, we draw upon preliminary qualitative evidence from 19 semistructured interviews conducted with academics specializing in economics and/or end-of-life care. Conclusions: While there is a need for increased funding in the short term (highlighted in recent reviews), increasing funding to services that have little evidence base appears to be an irresponsible long-term strategy. Hence there should also be increased investment in research and increased emphasis in particular on developing economic tools to evaluate services

Cross-national comparisons: a missing link in the relationship between policies and fertility? A comparative study of fertility decision making of Polish nationals in Poland and UK

Our findings suggest that a framework to research fertility in contemporary societies in which cross-national comparisons are considered may contribute new and useful knowledge, however more research is needed to test the influence of cross-national comparisons on actual behavioural outcomes

Predicting carer health effects using patient data

Illnesses and interventions can affect the health status of family carers in addition to patients. However economic evaluation studies rarely incorporate data on health status of carers.We investigated whether changes in carer health status could be 'predicted' from the health data of those they provide care to (patients), as a means of incorporating carer outcomes in economic evaluation.We used a case study of the family impact of meningitis, with 497 carer-patient dyads surveyed at two points. We used regression models to analyse changes in carers' health status, to derive predictive algorithms based on variables relating to the patient. We evaluated the predictive accuracy of different models using standard model fit criteria.It was feasible to estimate models to predict changes in carers' health status. However, the predictions generated in an external testing sample were poorly correlated with the observed changes in individual carers' health status. When aggregated, predictions provided some indication of the observed health changes for groups of carers.At present, a 'one-size-fits-all' predictive model of carer outcomes does not appear possible and further research aimed to identify predictors of carer's health status from (readily available) patient data is recommended. In the meanwhile, it may be better to encourage the targeted collection of carer data in primary research to enable carer outcomes to be better reflected in economic evaluation