Strongly Lensed Supermassive Black Hole Binaries as Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Sources

Supermassive black hole binary systems (SMBHBs) should be the most powerful sources of gravitational waves (GWs) in the Universe. Once Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) detect the stochastic GW background from their cosmic merger history, searching for individually resolvable binaries will take on new importance. Since these individual SMBHBs are expected to be rare, here we explore how strong gravitational lensing can act as a tool for increasing their detection prospects by magnifying fainter sources and bringing them into view. Unlike for electromagnetic waves, when the geometric optics limit is nearly always valid, for GWs the wave-diffraction-interference effects can become important when the wavelength of the GWs is larger than the Schwarzchild radius of the lens, i.e. $M_{\rm lens} \sim 10^8\,(\frac{f}{mHz})^{-1}\,M_\odot$. For the GW frequency range explored in this work, the geometric optics limit holds. We investigate GW signals from SMBHBs that might be detectable with current and future PTAs under the assumption that quasars serve as bright beacons that signal a recent merger. Using the black hole mass function derived from quasars and a physically motivated magnification distribution, we expect to detect a few strongly lensed binary systems out to $z \approx 2$. Additionally, for a range of fixed magnifications $2 \leq \mu \leq 100$, strong lensing adds up to $\sim$30 more detectable binaries for PTAs. Finally, we investigate the possibility of observing both time-delayed electromagnetic signals and GW signals from these strongly lensed binary systems -- that will provide us with unprecedented multimessenger insights into their orbital evolution.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures (now 16 pages, 8 figures); updated method/results & pre-publication revisions, references adde

Discovery and Characterization of Galactic-scale Dual Supermassive Black Holes Across Cosmic Time

The hierarchical structure formation paradigm predicts the formation of pairs of supermassive black holes in merging galaxies. When both (or one) members of the SMBH pair are unobscured AGNs, the system can be identified as a dual (or offset) AGN. Quantifying the abundance of these AGN pairs as functions of separation, redshift and host properties is crucial to understanding SMBH formation and AGN fueling in the broad context of galaxy formation. The High Latitude Wide Area Survey with Roman, with its unprecedented combination of sensitivity, spatial resolution, area and NIR wavelength coverage, will revolutionize the study of galactic-scale environments of SMBH pairs. This white paper summarizes the science opportunities and technical requirements on the discovery and characterization of SMBH pairs down to galactic scales (i.e., less than tens of kpc) over broad ranges of redshift (1<z<7) and luminosity (Lbol>1E42 erg/s).Comment: Roman Core Community Survey White Paper, focusing on the High Latitude Wide Area Surve

Massive Black Hole Binaries as LISA Precursors in the Roman High Latitude Time Domain Survey

With its capacity to observe $\sim 10^{5-6}$ faint active galactic nuclei (AGN) out to redshift $z\approx 6$, Roman is poised to reveal a population of $10^{4-6}\, {\rm M_\odot}$ black holes during an epoch of vigorous galaxy assembly. By measuring the light curves of a subset of these AGN and looking for periodicity, Roman can identify several hundred massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) with 5-12 day orbital periods, which emit copious gravitational radiation and will inevitably merge on timescales of $10^{3-5}$ years. During the last few months of their merger, such binaries are observable with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), a joint ESA/NASA gravitational wave mission set to launch in the mid-2030s. Roman can thus find LISA precursors, provide uniquely robust constraints on the LISA source population, help identify the host galaxies of LISA mergers, and unlock the potential of multi-messenger astrophysics with massive black hole binaries.Comment: White Paper for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope's Core Community Surveys (https://roman.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/ccs_white_papers.html

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-wave Background

\ua9 2024. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational-wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15 yr data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes, which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work, we search the NANOGrav 15 yr data set for evidence of a gravitational-wave background with quadrupolar HD and scalar-transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors ∼2 when comparing HD to ST correlations, and ∼1 for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis

How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational Wave Background

\ua9 2023. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.Analyses of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nanohertz frequency band. The most plausible source of this background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for this background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely (i) Gaussianity, (ii) isotropy, and most often, (iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated data sets. The data-set length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated data sets, even though their fundamental assumptions are not strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Anisotropy in the Gravitational-Wave Background

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email [email protected]

The NANOGrav 12.5 yr Data Set: A Computationally Efficient Eccentric Binary Search Pipeline and Constraints on an Eccentric Supermassive Binary Candidate in 3C 66B

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05 yr period and low redshift (∼0.02) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it to simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity e 0 &lt; 0.5 and the symmetric mass ratio η &gt; 0.1. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of 88.1 ± 3.7 ns for the Earth term-only and 81.74 ± 0.86 ns for the Earth+pulsar term searches for e 0 &lt; 0.5 and η &gt; 0.1. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are (1.98 ± 0.05) × 109 and (1.81 ± 0.01) × 109 M ☉. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations

The NANOGrav 12.5 yr Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set. We find a Bayes factor of 2.8 in favor of a model that includes a memory signal and common spatially uncorrelated red noise (CURN) compared to a model including only a CURN. However, further investigation shows that a disproportionate amount of support for the memory signal comes from three dubious pulsars. Using a more flexible red-noise model in these pulsars reduces the Bayes factor to 1.3. Having found no compelling evidence, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately 3.3 × 10−14. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613−0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise that can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array