Statins for extension of disability-free survival and primary prevention of cardiovascular events among older people: protocol for a randomised controlled trial in primary care (STAREE trial)

Introduction: The world is undergoing a demographic transition to an older population. Preventive healthcare has reduced the burden of chronic illness at younger ages but there is limited evidence that these advances can improve health at older ages. Statins are one class of drug with the potential to prevent or delay the onset of several causes of incapacity in older age, particularly major cardiovascular disease (CVD). This paper presents the protocol for the STAtins in Reducing Events in the Elderly (STAREE) trial, a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial examining the effects of statins in community dwelling older people without CVD, diabetes or dementia. Methods and analysis: We will conduct a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial among people aged 70 years and over, recruited through Australian general practice and with no history of clinical CVD, diabetes or dementia. Participants will be randomly assigned to oral atorvastatin (40 mg daily) or matching placebo (1:1 ratio). The co-primary endpoints are disability-free survival defined as survival-free of dementia and persistent physical disability, and major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death or non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke). Secondary endpoints are all-cause death, dementia and other cognitive decline, persistent physical disability, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, fatal and non-fatal cancer, all-cause hospitalisation, need for permanent residential care and quality of life. Comparisons between assigned treatment arms will be on an intention-to-treat basis with each of the co-primary endpoints analysed separately in time-to-first-event analyses using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Ethics and dissemination: STAREE will address uncertainties about the preventive effects of statins on a range of clinical outcomes important to older people. Institutional ethics approval has been obtained. All research outputs will be disseminated to general practitioner co-investigators and participants, published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international conferences. Trial registration number: NCT02099123.Sophia Zoungas, Andrea Curtis, Simone Spark, Rory Wolfe, John J McNeil, Lawrence Beilin, Trevor T-J Chong, Geoffrey Cloud, Ingrid Hopper, Alissia Kost, Mark Nelson, Stephen J Nicholls, Christopher M Reid, Joanne Ryan, Andrew Tonkin, Stephanie A Ward, Anthony Wierzbicki, On behalf of STAREE investigator grou

Early carboniferous brachiopod faunas from the Baoshan block, west Yunnan, southwest China

38 brachiopod species in 27 genera and subgenera are described from the Yudong Formation in the Shidian-Baoshan area, west Yunnan, southwest China. New taxa include two new subgenera: Unispirifer (Septimispirifer) and Brachythyrina (Longathyrina), and seven new species: Eomarginifera yunnanensis, Marginatia cylindrica, Unispirifer (Unispirifer) xiangshanensis, Unispirifer (Septimispirifer) wafangjieensis, Brachythyrina (Brachythyrina) transversa, Brachythyrina (Longathyrina) baoshanensis, and Girtyella wafangjieensis. Based on the described material and constraints from associated coral and conodont faunas, the age of the brachiopod fauna from the Yudon Formation is considered late Tournaisian (Early Carboniferous), with a possibility extending into earlyViseacutean.<br /

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

Predictive Performance of a Polygenic Risk Score for Incident Ischemic Stroke in a Healthy Older Population

Background and Purpose: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to predict ischemic stroke (IS). However, further validation of PRS performance is required in independent populations, particularly older adults in whom the majority of strokes occur. Methods: We predicted risk of incident IS events in a population of 12 792 healthy older individuals enrolled in the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly). The PRS was calculated using 3.6 million genetic variants. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. The primary outcome was IS over 5 years, with stroke subtypes as secondary outcomes. A multivariable model including conventional risk factors was applied and reevaluated after adding PRS. Area under the curve and net reclassification were evaluated. Results: At baseline, mean population age was 75 years. In total, 173 incident IS events occurred over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. When PRS was added to the multivariable model as a continuous variable, it was independently associated with IS (hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.20-1.65] per SD of the PRS; P<0.001). The PRS alone was a better discriminator for IS events than most conventional risk factors. PRS as a categorical variable was a significant predictor in the highest tertile (hazard ratio, 1.74; P=0.004) compared with the lowest. The area under the curve of the conventional model was 66.6% (95% CI, 62.2-71.1) and after inclusion of the PRS, improved to 68.5 ([95% CI, 64.0-73.0] P=0.095). In subgroup analysis, the continuous PRS remained an independent predictor for large vessel and cardioembolic stroke subtypes but not for small vessel stroke. Reclassification was improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.17-0.43). Conclusions: PRS predicts incident IS in a healthy older population but only moderately improves prediction over conventional risk factors. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583

Mapping Bathymetry and Depositional Facies on Great Bahama Bank

Satellite imagery and an extensive set of water-depth measurements have been used to map and critically evaluate the magnitude and patterns of bathymetry across Great Bahama Bank. Descriptions of previously collected sediment samples were combined with satellite imagery to map and refine the interpreted distribution of surficial carbonate sediments (depositional facies). Data reveal that 60% of Great Bahama Bank lies in 5 m or less of water. The deep portion occurs mainly in a generally east–west trending area in the southern portion of the platform. The re-evaluation of the facies reveals that Great Bahama Bank is essentially a very grainy platform with muddier accumulations primarily in the lee of Andros Island. This area of Great Bahama Bank also experiences currents related to an excursion of the Florida Current onto the platform top; possibly enhancing sediment mud production through the generation of whitings. Sediment equivalents to mudstones, wackestones and mud-rich packstones cover 8%, 5% and 14%, respectively, of the platform top, whereas sediment equivalents to mud-poor packstones, grainstones and rudstones account for 20%, 45% and 3% of the surface area. Boundstones (reefs) were not specifically mapped in this study due to the resolution of the mapping. There is a poor relationship between the occurrence of the depositional texture and water depth, in that the grainier sediment types are abundant across the full range of water depths. The most abrupt lateral facies changes portrayed on the facies maps are observed leeward of islands, areas which also hold the highest diversity in facies type. The majority of the islands on the platform align with the north-west/south-east strike of the platform margin and these islands, in turn, exert control on the shape and orientation of facies belts that develop in proximity to them. For this reason, regions of the platform that contain principal islands host facies belts that align with the principal axis of the platform, whereas for regions lacking islands, the facies belts adopt an east–west trend consistent with prevailing winds and currents. There is a clear trend that the wide southern portion of the platform hosts the most continuous expanses of grain-rich sediments