EXPO-12: Development and validation of the Exposure to Violent Extremism Scale

Objective: This study details the development and validation of the 12-item Exposure to Violent Extremism Scale (EXPO-12). We aimed to undertake a transparent and robust process of scale development to present a tool to facilitate research on the relationship between exposure and violent extremism. / Method: First, we generated an initial item pool and evaluated items via expert feedback (n = 6) and a task designed to assess item comprehension (n = 13; Study 1). Second, we explored the underlying factor structure with exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and evaluated item characteristics with item response theory (IRT) in a representative sample of the U.K. population (n = 1, 509; Study 2). Finally, we sought to replicate the factor structure proposed by Study 2 via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and examined convergent validity with a related construct, violent extremist intentions (n = 1, 475; Study 3). / Results: Study 1 resulted in a preliminary pool of 40 items. Study 2 used EFA to establish a four-factor structure consisting of 21 items. IRT further reduced the item pool by evaluating differential item functioning, discrimination, and location parameters, resulting in EXPO-12. Study 3 replicated the factor structure proposed in Study 2 via CFA. EXPO-12 demonstrated good convergent validity with violent extremist intentions. / Conclusion: EXPO-12 is presented as a preliminarily validated measure of the concept, alongside its limitations. The scale’s main implication is as a tool to facilitate research to unpack the complexity and nuances of the relationship between exposure and violent extremism

Prescient, inconsistent, and ignorant: Commentary on the Dispensation of dynamite

Comments on the article The Dispensation of Dynamite (1883, March 16) (see record 2018-63621-005). The Dispensation of Dynamite (1883, March 16) is equal parts prescient, inconsistent, ignorant, and devoid of true context. The authors try to contextualize aspects of Dispensation’s reporting, add some correctives to erroneous aspects, and draw upon contemporary debates within terrorism studies, as well as recent terrorist attacks. Dispensation reports the day after coordinated

Time sequencing the TRAP-18 indicators

A time sequence analysis is conducted on 125 lone-actor terrorists, most of whom mounted attacks in Europe and North America, utilizing the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), a structured professional judgment instrument with demonstrable interrater reliability and criterion, discriminant, and predictive validity. Both frequency filters (≥3) and coefficient filters (>.50) were applied to the data. Results indicate that virtually all distal characteristics, such as criminal violence, mental disorder, and ideology, preceded the proximal warning behaviors, such as pathway, fixation, identification, leakage, last resort, and directly communicated threats. Indicators that were “gatekeepers” and “turning point events” were also identified (Taylor et al., 2008). The time sequence analysis further validates the model of the TRAP-18 as a risk instrument for the assessment and management of lone-actor terrorist violence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved

Does cognitive inflexibility predict violent extremist behaviour intentions? A registered direct replication report of Zmigrod et al., 2019

Purpose: Zmigrod et al. (2019a, Frontiers in Psychology, 10, 989) demonstrated that lower levels of cognitive flexibility predict a higher willingness to fight and die for the national in-group. We conducted a registered direct replication of their Study 1. Extending the original study, we examined whether the documented relationship held when a self-report measure for cognitive flexibility was introduced and when identity fusion was controlled for. We also investigated whether cognitive inflexibility predicts normative pro-group behaviour intentions. // Methods: Participants (N = 1378) reported in a cross-sectional survey study their willingness to fight, die and sacrifice themselves for the in-group and completed the Remote Associates (RAT) as and Wisconsin Card Sorting (WCST) tests. Afterwards, self-reported cognitive flexibility, identity fusion and normative pro-group behaviour intentions were assessed. // Results: Results showed a small negative relationship between RAT accuracy rates and willingness to fight and die. WCST accuracy rates were positively related with willingness to die but not correlated with willingness to fight. Self-report measures of cognitive flexibility were partially positively and partially negatively associated with support for violent extremism. There was further evidence that lower cognitive flexibility predicts higher normative pro-group behaviour intentions. A mini meta-analysis, which synthesized findings from the original study and our replication, demonstrated a relatively small negative correlation between cognitive flexibility and support for violent extremism. // Conclusions: In summary, even though not all individual results could be replicated, we confirmed the overall conclusion of the original study: lower cognitive flexibility predicted stronger willingness to fight and die for an in-group. The findings highlight that it is important to integrate cognitive style in multi-level frameworks of risk factors of violent extremism. Additionally, our results point out that the validity of different measures of cognitive flexibility, including self-report tools, must be further examined. Future research that evaluates cognitive flexibility training in the context of CVE/PVE interventions is also encouraged

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone‐actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone‐actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone‐actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime‐ and/or violence‐supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone‐actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime‐ and/or violence‐supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone‐actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone‐actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor “predicts” violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism

Quantum kinetic theory of the filamentation instability

The quantum electromagnetic dielectric tensor for a multi species plasma is re-derived from the gauge invariant Wigner-Maxwell system and presented under a form very similar to the classical one. The resulting expression is then applied to a quantum kinetic theory of the electromagnetic filamentation instability. Comparison is made with the quantum fluid theory including a Bohm pressure term, and with the cold classical plasma result. A number of analytical expressions are derived for the cutoff wave vector, the largest growth rate and the most unstable wave vector

Disaggregating Lone-actor Grievance-fuelled Violence: Comparing Lone-actor Terrorists and Mass Murderers

Research suggests that lone-actor terrorists and mass murderers may be better conceptualized as lone-actor grievance-fueled violence (LAGFV) offenders, rather than as distinct types. The present study sought to examine the extent to which these offenders could (or could not) be disaggregated along dimensions relevant to the threat assessment of both. Drawing on a Risk Analysis Framework (RAF), the offending process was theorized as interactions among propensity, situation, preparatory, leakage and network indicators. We analyzed a dataset of 183 U.S. offenders, including sixty-eight lone-actor terrorists and 115 solo mass murderers. Cluster analysis identified profiles within each of the components: propensity (stable, criminal, unstable), situation (low stress, high stress (social), high stress (interpersonal), preparatory (fixated, novel aggression, equipped, clandestine, predatory, preparatory), leakage (high leakage, low leakage), and network (lone, associated, connected). Bi-variate analysis examined the extent to which the profiles classified offenders previously labeled as lone-actor terrorists or mass murderers. The results suggest that while significant differences may exist at the periphery of these dimensions, offenders previously classified as lone-actor terrorists or mass murderers occupy a noteworthy shared space. Moreover, no profile classifies a single “type” of offender exclusively. Lastly, we propose a dynamic, interactional model of LAGFV and discuss the implications of these findings for the threat assessment and management of LAGFV offenders

Learning from the parallel field of terrorism studies.

Comments on an article by T. W. Briggs and J. W. Pollard (see record 2020-26206-005). Briggs and Pollard make a convincing case for the advancement of computational modeling and simulation of mass violence for threat assessment and management. The purpose of this commentary is to look into the analogous study of terrorism to pinpoint recent areas of advancement. We narrow our focus to three core areas, two of which heavily overlap with core areas identified by Briggs and Pollard: (a) computational linguistic approaches, (b) spatial modeling, and (c) network based designs. Historically, the fields of both (a) threat assessment and management and (b) terrorism studies grew in silos. The aim here is for a much greater alignment in research agendas moving forward. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved

Modeling the plasma near-wakes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76834/1/AIAA-7721-514.pd

The Whole Is Greater than the Sum of Its Parts: Risk and Protective Profiles for Vulnerability to Radicalization

This study examines how behavioral indicators co-occur as “risk profiles” across different domains relevant to risk assessment as theorized by a Risk Analysis Framework, and how these profiles impact upon vulnerability to radicalization. We unpack both the inter- and intra-domain relationships among profiles, identifying the relative importance of cumulative or interactive effects. We apply latent class analysis, a series of ANOVAs, and moderator analyses to a sample of the UK population (n = 1,500). We examine how the risk profiles relate to scores on the Radicalism Intention Scale, and how profiles relate to, and interact with, one another. Our results suggest that radicalization risk emerges fundamentally from both the interaction and cumulation of processes at different levels of analysis and is therefore highly context dependent. Risk assessment should rely less on quantifying specific indicators and attend to correctly inferring their functional relevance to the risk being assessed