Economic forecasting in a changing world

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective

Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research

This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, and draw out the implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss the areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings which lack theoretical explanations. JEL Classification: C32

Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research

We describe a general theoretical framework against which recent results in economic forecasting can be judged, including explanations for the findings of forecasting competitions, the prevalence of forecast failure, and the role of causal variables. We compare this framework to a previous formulation which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster, then describe ten aspects which our approach illuminates, and draw out their implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss ten areas where research is needed to clarify empirical findings that still lack theoretical explanations.

Give Kids The World Village

Give Kids the World Village is an 89-acre non-profit village in Kissimmee, FL, that partners with organizations such as Make-A-Wish to provide theme park tickets and housing to terminally ill children. The villages runs on volunteers, from their on-site shuttle service to serving breakfast, lunch, and dinner to operating wheelchair-friendly rides. They rely on volunteers to make sure that families can get the most out of their one-week vacations, and just worry about spending time with their family.https://stars.library.ucf.edu/hip-2023fall/1069/thumbnail.jp

Flowering of Sugarcane: Mechanics and Control

Flowering of sugarcane is a mixed blessing for the grower: on the one hand, flowering is essential for the improvement by commercial cane breeding; on the other hand, it can cause very substantial losses of yield in commercial fields. This bulletin presents relevant data from many years research on the mechanics of flowering and the methods available to prevent or induce blossoming