Wealth Mobility: The Missing Element

We consider the problems that may arise when cross sectional data alone are used for inferences about individual welfare, the existence of elites, the possibilities of class boundaries, the openness of a society, etc. We also consider problems with alternative measures of socio-economic position. We then use a sample of 2400 households observed over one or two decade intervals together with data on the population of households at each observation point to examine mobility within the distribution of wealth for an almost closed economy, Utah, 1850-1870. We use information on households to examine those characteristics that contribute to mobility. We find considerable mobility, much apparently stochastic, within quite highly skewed distributions of wealth that also exhibit increasing inequality through time.

Unobservable Family and Individual Contributions to the Distributions ofIncome and Wealth

This paper uses a data set composed of combinations of full brothers, half brothers as well as fathers and sons to measure the effect of common family background on households'income and wealth. While the data is drawn from a nineteenth century population, the intra-class correlation (after the effects of age, occupation, nativity, residence and duration in the economy have been removed) for income ranges from .13 to .18 which is similar to that found in modern samples. Intra-class correlations for wealth are significantly higher (.18 to .35) than those for income. The addition of fathers' observed characteristics to the sweeping regressions reduces the unobserved common background effect shared by brothers by about twenty percent.The intra-class correlations of half brothers were lower than those observed for full brothers though the small differences between the two groups suggest that fathers played a dominant role in the transmission of the common family effect. Unobserved background was decomposed into individual and family effects by a variance components procedure. The individual effect was dominant for income while the family effect was dominant for wealth.

Intergenerational Effects of the Distribution of Income and Wealth: The Utah Experience, 1850-1900

The relationship between the wealth or income of parents and children is an important economic issue in both positive and normative senses. In this paper, we estimate elasticities of sons' income or wealth with respect to the wealth of their fathers for a sample of households in nineteenth century Utah. We find the elasticity relating the wealth of fathers to sons to range from .10 to .34 depending on the variables held constant such as occupation, age and residence. Elasticities based on observation of the wealth of fathers and sons in the same year were higher than those based on a lagged value of the fathers' wealth. The death of the father prior to observation of the sons' wealth increased the elasticity about three fold. The elasticity between the income of sons and wealth of fathers was low (.09 to .21) but significant even though the sons' incomes were observed fifteen years after the wealth of fathers. In general, the data suggest a persistent relationship between the economic status of parents and their children with substantial regression toward the mean so that an economic elite was unlikely to be based upon intergenerational transmission of economic success.

Precedence and Wealth: Evidence from Nineteenth Century Utah

Earlier work has established a strong positive relationship between a household's wealth and its duration in the local economy. This paper explores the possible connection between the magnitude of this wealth/duration relationship and the community's precedence rate--the percentage of households in a given year (1870) present in the same locale in an earlier year (1860). We hypothesize that a low precedence rate will be associated with a high return to the household's duration in the local economy, controlling for the size of the local population. This hypothesis is tested and tentatively confirmed for the counties of Utah in 1870. We also find that a low precedence rate is associated with increased inequality.

Economic and Geographic Mobility on the Farming Frontier: Evidence from Appanoose County, Iowa 1850-1870

This paper investigates the characteristics of the early settlers on the midwestern farming frontier, the correlates of their geographic mobility, and the determinants of their wealth. Using evidence drawn from the manuscripts of the federal censuses of 1850-1870, we find average rates of growth of wealth over time that were considerably above the national average, a steeper cross-sectional relationship between wealth and age than those found for populations drawn more broadly from throughout the United States at the same time, and a substantial positive effect of early arrival on the frontier on wealth levels. These results suggest that very high levels of economic opportunity may have been a characteristic of the nineteenth-century farming frontier.