Belgian-Japanese search for Antarctic meteorites during the 2010.2011 field season.

第2回極域科学シンポジウム/第34回南極隕石シンポジウム 11月17日（木） 国立国語研究所 2階講

Modelling the effects of an abolition of the EU sugar quota on internal prices, production and imports

We apply a spatial price equilibrium model of the world sugar market to simulate an abolishment of the EU quota system in 2015/16. To overcome the normative nature of the approach, we calibrate the model by attaching a non-linear cost term to each trade flow. This is in some regards similar to positive mathematical programming. We suggest an economic interpretation and an econometric specification of the cost term. Production in the EU increases to almost 16 million tons. Twelve member states increase production, seven reduce it. Preferential imports are significantly reduced. Simulated effects are found to be more pronounced the higher the world market price.CAP, structural change, sugar, TRQ, spatial modelling, trade preferences, PMP, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Flexible quota constraints in positive mathematical programming models

To explain over- and underuse of available quota, Buysse et al. (2007) have integrated the shadow cost of the quota constraint in a quota flexibility function in a positive mathematical programming model. This method and central hypothesis, formulated and tested for the case of Belgian sugar beet farms, is in current paper extended and confirmed for the cases of Flemish dairy quota and manure emission rights. Despite the different organisation, objectives and implementations of the diverse quota systems, the results are similar. A higher utilisation of quota is significantly driven by the quota rent, but farm characteristics are also important and the effect declines with increasing quota rent. Regardless the quota, the dairy quota flexibility behaviour of the sample of Flemish farms results in an output price elasticity of 0.6%. The quota flexibility functions can be used for policy analysis, model sophistication and farm advisory instrument.Quota, flexibility, Positive Mathematical Programming, farm model, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Fertilization: trade-offs between manure abatement and plant productivity

In 2005, 30% of the Flemish farms faced a manure excess, while at aggregated level still 9.7% of the emission rights were unused. This means that, despite the various possibilities, Flemish farmers do not succeed in an effective exchange of manure between farms. In current paper is shown how inorganic fertilizer use influences the use and exchange of organic nitrogen. Because of the mutual interdependency between organic and inorganic nitrogen emission rights (or quota), inorganic nitrogen use limits the emission rights for organic nitrogen. Utilisation of these emission rights are analysed as a trade-offs choice between plant productivity (use of inorganic nitrogen) and manure disposal, as the major abatement alternative of manure production. Farmers still prefer inorganic fertilizers because of their effect on plant productivity and income. However, by changing the quota rent of organic nitrogen, the fertilization behaviour can be influenced. A higher quota rent of organic nitrogen would increase the use of manure. This trade-off behaviour seriously influences effectiveness of policies. When the objective is to lower the total nitrogen use, a mere reduction of organic quota can partially be counteracted by a higher inorganic nitrogen use. When the objective is to better spread the manure, increasing the quota rent for deficit farms will increase their acceptance of manure.manure abatement, nutrient emission rights, Tobit model, Crop Production/Industries,

Cost-benefit analysis of abatement measures for nutrient emission from agriculture

In intensive animal husbandry areas surface water N and P concentrations often remain too high. The Water Framework Directive calls for additional nutrient emission abatement measures. Therefore, costs and benefits for possible agricultural measures in Flanders were first analysed in terms of soil balance surplus. Finally, abatement measures for agriculture, households and industry were set off against each other and ranked according to their cost-efficiency by the Environmental Costing Model. Increased dairy cattle efficiency, winter cover crops and increased pig feed efficiency turn out very cost efficient. Other agricultural measures are less cost efficient than for instance collective treatment for households and industry.nitrogen and phosphorus abatement, surface water, cost efficiency, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

Derogation on the EU Nitrates Directive: does it make a difference?

The paper discusses an ex ante evaluation of the derogation on the Nitrates Directive for Flanders, Belgium, which is a case of intensive but highly productive livestock areas. The aim is to develop an accurate simulation model to detect small differences in manure surpluses caused by changes of manure production and/or utilization. The system of models consists of various modules to fine tune the calculations of manure production, fertilizing behaviour and manure allocation and disposal on and off farm. The results show that derogation may cause the existing manure surpluses to expire, if only nitrogen limits are considered and no transactions costs are taken into account. When also phosphate fertilization limits are considered, the increase in manuring possibilities is much lower than expected. Ongoing research focuses on the marginal shifts in manure surplus at farm level and possible effects of transactions costs.Nitrates Directive, derogation, modelling, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

A FARM LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN CAP REFORMS AND LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL LEGISLATIONS: HOW AND IN WHICH EXTENT FLEMISH DAIRY FARMERS CAN FILL UP EXTRA MILK QUOTA?

The agricultural policies shift gradually from EU-level organised market interventions to local organised environmental policies. This paper explores the growth possibilities of the Flemish dairy sector with the outlook of a quota abolishment as a case study of this policy shift. The dairy quota policy seems very restrictive for the highly profitable Flemish dairy sector, but the environmental restrictions from the manure regulation can limit the growth of the dairy sector as well. The paper uses a spatial multi-agent simulation model applied to a sample of 40.000 farms to estimate price development of emission rights and their possible impact on the growth of the dairy production. The results show that a higher milk production leads to higher prices for emission rights. However, the increased cost of manure emission rights is not expected to impede dairy farm growth because the current milk quota rent estimates go far beyond the cost of manure emission rights.milk quota, manure emission rights, mathematical programming, Flanders, Agricultural and Food Policy, Industrial Organization, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C02, C61, L11, Q18,

Estimation and validation of temporal gait features using a markerless 2D video system

Background and Objective: Estimation of temporal gait features, such as stance time, swing time and gait cycle time, can be used for clinical evaluations of various patient groups having gait pathologies, such as Parkinson’s diseases, neuropathy, hemiplegia and diplegia. Most clinical laboratories employ an optoelectronic motion capture system to acquire such features. However, the operation of these systems requires specially trained operators, a controlled environment and attaching reflective markers to the patient’s body. To allow the estimation of the same features in a daily life setting, this paper presents a novel vision based system whose operation does not require the presence of skilled technicians or markers and uses a single 2D camera. Method: The proposed system takes as input a 2D video, computes the silhouettes of the walking person, and then estimates key biomedical gait indicators, such as the initial foot contact with the ground and the toe off instants, from which several other temporal gait features can be derived. Results: The proposed system is tested on two datasets: (i) a public gait dataset made available by CASIA, which contains 20 users, with 4 sequences per user; and (ii) a dataset acquired simultaneously by a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system and a simple 2D video camera, containing 10 users, with 5 sequences per user. For the CASIA gait dataset A the relevant temporal biomedical gait indicators were manually annotated, and the proposed automated video analysis system achieved an accuracy of 99% on their identification. It was able to obtain accurate estimations even on segmented silhouettes where, the state-of-the-art markerless 2D video based systems fail. For the second database, the temporal features obtained by the proposed system achieved an average intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.86, when compared to the "gold standard" optoelectronic motion capture system. Conclusions: The proposed markerless 2D video based system can be used to evaluate patients’ gait without requiring the usage of complex laboratory settings and without the need for physical attachment of sensors/markers to the patients. The good accuracy of the results obtained suggests that the proposed system can be used as an alternative to the optoelectronic motion capture system in non-laboratory environments, which can be enable more regular clinical evaluations.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio