Ondernemen in de open samenleving

Internationale markten zijn de afgelopen decennia sterk mondiaal ontwikkeld en veel bedrijven zijn in deze geglobaliseerde context uitgegroeid tot belangrijke, quasi-politieke spelers. Deze stormachtige economische ontwikkelingen bieden kansen en welvaart aan velen, maar kennen echter ook schaduwzijden, van milieubelasting tot belastingontwijking. In deze bundel verkennen de auteurs het idee van de ‘open samenleving’ om vat te krijgen op deze nieuwe realiteit. De open samenleving naar het ideaal van Popper, waarin mensen de vrijheid hebben om hun mening uit te drukken, initiatief te nemen, en elkaar tegen te spreken, wordt gezien als de grondslag voor vrijheid, welvaart, en vooruitgang. Deze bundel onderzoekt of de toegenomen openheid van markten de open samenleving als politiek ideaal dichterbij heeft gebracht. De auteurs werpen vanuit verschillende perspectieven een kritisch licht op de bedreigingen die voortvloeien uit mondiale markten en de toegenomen macht van ondernemingen. Ze stellen óók de vraag of het gedachtegoed van de open samenleving inspiratie kan bieden bij het tegengaan van die bedreigingen. Kunnen nieuwe vormen en interpretaties van ‘openheid’ worden gevonden, die tegenwicht bieden tegen de excessen van de vrijemarkteconomie

Testing an Academic Library Website for Usability with Faculty and Graduate Students

Objectives - This usability study was developed to observe faculty and graduate students’ reactions to a recent redesign of the University of Kansas (KU) Libraries’ website. The redesign included new navigational features, introduction of a federated search tool, a quick search box on the front page, and research subject pages. The study also provided the opportunity to observe the practices of faculty and graduate students in locating and retrieving information on the Libraries’ website. Methods - Ten participants (five faculty and five graduate students) representing diverse disciplines were solicited for the study. Participants were required to access the Libraries’ website to answer a series of questions regarding new and updated features of the website. Observational analysis using Morae™ software was conducted and interviews with each participant provided details of their opinions on how these new features would influence their research and teaching activities. Results - Most of the participants either did not notice or ignored the major website changes. Links to and locations of commonly used resources (e.g. catalogue; databases; e-journals) had been changed minimally, and the faculty and graduate student participants gravitated to those familiar features to complete tasks. Prior to the study, participants had not accessed the new discovery tools; however, once previewed, responses to the tools’ utility were generally favourable. After using the federated search tool on a familiar topic, several participants noted that, when directed to databases they had not previously considered, they were able to locate citations they had missed in the past. Observers noted pitfalls in navigating the site such as inconsistent underscoring of links, ambiguous terminology, and unclear icons meant to expand subject heading lists. Unexpected searching behaviours were observed, including inconsistent and lack of conceptual understanding in searching for e-journal content. Conclusions - This study provides evidence regarding the usability of a library website with a population already familiar with library resources. It demonstrated that faculty and graduate students are not interested in experimenting with new discovery tools but are amenable to their potential value to undergraduate students. The recent trend toward minimizing content and links on websites satisfies this population, one which is already comfortable with the basic attributes of a library’s website

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

D1.2 Handbook of multi-hazard, multi-risk definitions and concepts

This report is the first output of Work Package 1: Diagnosis of the MYRIAD-EU project: Handbook of Multi-hazard, Multi-Risk Definitions and Concepts. The aim of the task was to (i) acknowledge the differences and promote consistency in understanding across subsequent work packages in the MYRIAD-EU project, (ii) improve the accessibility of our work to a broad array of stakeholders and (iii) strengthen consensus across the hazard and risk community through a common understanding of multi-hazard, multi-risk terminology and concepts. The work encompassed a mixed-methods approach, including internal consultations and data-generating exercises; literature reviews; external stakeholder engagement; adopting and building on a rich existing body of established glossaries. 140 terms are included in the glossary, 102 related to multi-hazard, multi-risk, disaster risk management and an additional 38 due to their relevance to the project, acknowledging the need for a common understanding amongst an interdisciplinary project consortium. We also include extended definitions related to concepts particularly of relevance to this project deliverable, including ‘multi-hazard’, ‘hazard interrelationships’, ‘multi-risk’ and ‘direct and indirect loss and risk’. Underpinned by a literature review and internal consultation, we include a specific section on indicators, how these might be applied within a multi-hazard and multi-risk context, and how existing indicators could be adapted to consider multi-risk management. We emphasise that there are a number of established glossaries that the project (and risk community) should make use of to strengthen the impact of the work we do, noting in our literature review a tendency in papers and reports to define words afresh. We conclude the report with a selection of key observations, including terminology matters – for all aspects of disaster risk management, for example communication, data collection, measuring progress and reporting against Sendai Framework targets. At the same time, we discuss when is it helpful to include ‘multi-‘ as a prefix, questioning whether part of the paradigm shift needed to successfully address complex challenges facing an interconnected world is through inherently seeing vulnerability, exposure and disaster risk through the lens of multiple, interrelated hazards. We emphasise that there is likely to be an evolution of the terminology throughout the project lifetime as terms are emerge or shift as the project evolves. Finally, we propose a roadmap for developing and testing draft multi-risk indicators in MYRIAD-EU. The WP1 team would like to acknowledge all the contributions of the consortium on this task and the feedback from the External Advisory Board, in particular the chair of the board Virginia Murray, Head of Global Disaster Risk Reduction at the UK Health Security Agency, and the contribution of Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Head of Global Risk Management and Reporting at UNDRR, for her reflections on the findings of this work

A first update on mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

peer reviewe

Parametric Precipitation Model for Tropical Cyclone Radial Rainfall Profiles: Reducing the biases in the Bader model for the North Atlantic

Torrential rain from tropical cyclones can have a devastating impact, causing loss of life and billions in damages. To better understand the risk faced by coastal communities, it is important to estimate how often a tropical cyclone could occur and how much rainfall it will produce. One way to do this is by analyzing past storms and building parametric models of rainfall rates during tropical cyclone events. While many parametric precipitation models –such as the Bader model– exist, their accuracy remains limited and many challenges still need to be overcome. The most important challenges are output overestimation and a poor representation of rainfall over land. Therefore, this thesis aims to reducethese biases by answering the following research question:"How can the bias in the radial rainfall distributions of a tropical cyclone in Bader’sparametrized model be reduced and be used for reliable rainfall estimates both above land and the ocean?"To answer this question, several new data sources were introduced from the TRMM/GPM satellites and Stage IV to improve the Bader model. While this original model only predicted precipitation based on maximum wind speed (vmax), the updated model also considers pressure deficit ΔP. The results suggest that ΔP can be a useful parameter to reduce bias and improve accuracy. However, it alsoleads to larger uncertainty ranges. Next, four precipitation profiles were proposed. A profile where precipitation is constant for low maximum precipitation values based on the predicted total rainfall (area under the graph) was selected for further exploration.The new models are explored during a case study of Hurricane Florence. Both the ΔP and vmax based models produced satisfactory results, compared to the benchmark IPET model. Moreover, an alternative fit above land has been proposed, where the highest precipitation is simulated at the eye. The proposed land fit improved the median of the predictions based on both vmax and ΔP. The ΔPbased model performed the best in the case study, however, no definitive conclusion could be reached upon which model is most suitable overall as more case studies would be required.Finally the updated model has been compared to the original Bader model. The new data ensured better representation over land, the overestimation of precipitation was reduced, and the model was applied with more confidence outside of the training data set. Consequently, results showed an improvementon its prediction capabilities. As a concluding remark, this research project highlights the importance of having insightful data to enhance the decision-making and risk management of natural hazards: a model that accurately quantifies uncertainty and the risks associated with a TC, representing a valuable tool for better understanding flood risk. Nonetheless, there are still several ways to further improve the modeled profiles (e.g., by including more data, introducing asymmetry or adding temporal autocorrelation)

A new method to compile global multi-hazard event sets

Abstract This study presents a new method, the MYRIAD-Hazard Event Sets Algorithm (MYRIAD-HESA), that compiles historically-based multi-hazard event sets. MYRIAD-HESA is a fully open-access method that can create multi-hazard event sets from any hazard events that occur on varying time, space, and intensity scales. In the past, multi-hazards have predominately been studied on a local or continental scale, or have been limited to specific hazard combinations, such as the combination between droughts and heatwaves. Therefore, we exemplify our approach by compiling a global multi-hazard event set database, spanning from 2004 to 2017, which includes eleven hazards from varying hazard classes (e.g. meteorological, geophysical, hydrological and climatological). This global database provides new scientific insights on the frequency of different multi-hazard events and their hotspots. Additionally, we explicitly incorporate a temporal dimension in MYRIAD-HESA, the time-lag. The time-lag, or time between the occurrence of hazards, is used to determine potentially impactful events that occurred in close succession. Varying time-lags have been tested in MYRIAD-HESA, and are analysed using North America as a case study. Alongside the MYRIAD-HESA, the multi-hazard event sets, MYRIAD-HES, is openly available to further increase the understanding of multi-hazard events in the disaster risk community. The open-source nature of MYRIAD-HESA provides flexibility to conduct multi-risk assessments by, for example, incorporating higher resolution data for an area of interest

The cross-sectional relation between medically unexplained physical symptoms (MUPS) and the Cortisol Awakening Response

Objectives: We aimed to assess the cross-sectional relation between levels of cortisol and specific symptom clusters, symptom severity and duration of symptoms in patients with medically unexplained physical symptoms (MUPS). Methods: Baseline data of a cohort of MUPS patients were used. We chose the Cortisol Awakening Response (CAR) as a cortisol parameter, using saliva samples. We used confirmatory factor analysis for the identification of 4 specific symptom clusters: (1) gastro-intestinal symptoms; (2) pain; (3) cardio-pulmonary symptoms; and (4) fatigue. For this factor analysis we used the Physical Symptom Questionnaire (PSQ), which assesses the occurrence and frequency of 51 physical symptoms. Symptom severity was measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15). Duration of symptoms was based on self-reported duration of top 3 symptoms. We performed multiple linear regression to assess relations between CAR and individual factor scores on symptom clusters, symptom severity and duration of symptoms. Results: Data from 296 patients (76% female) were included in the analyses. The majority of patients suffered from symptoms in multiple organ systems. Factor analysis confirmed that the model with 4 symptom clusters fitted our data. For the total study population, we found no significant relation between CAR and participants' factor scores on any of the symptom clusters. We also found no significant relations between CAR and severity or duration of symptoms. Conclusion: Our results suggest that within a heterogeneous MUPS population there is no relation between CAR and symptom severity and duration. However, more studies are needed to confirm our findings