A hybrid model-based and memory-based short-term traffic prediction system

Short-term traffic forecasting capabilities on freeways and major arterials have received special attention in the past decade due primarily to their vital role in supporting various travelers\u27 trip decisions and traffic management functions. This research presents a hybrid model-based and memory-based methodology to improve freeway traffic prediction performance. The proposed methodology integrates both approaches to strengthen predictions under both recurrent and non-recurrent conditions. The model-based approach relies on a combination of static and dynamic neural network architectures to achieve optimal prediction performance under various input and traffic condition settings. Concurrently, the memory-based component is derived from the data archival system that encodes the commuters\u27 travel experience in the past. The outcomes of the two approaches are two prediction values for each query case. The two values are subsequently processed by a prediction query manager, which ultimately produces one final prediction value using an error-based decision algorithm. It was found that the hybrid approach produces speed estimates with smaller errors than if the two approaches employed separately. The proposed prediction approach could be used in deriving travel times more reliable as the Traffic Management Centers move towards implementing Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) applications

A stochastic mesoscopic cell-transmission model for operational analysis of large-scale transportation networks

The cell transmission model (CTM), developed by Daganzo in 1994 was not fully exploited as an operations model for analysis of large-scale traffic networks. Because of its macroscopic / mesoscopic features, CTM offers calibration and computational advantages over microscopic models. This study presents a series of enhancements to the original form of CTM. These enhancements show potential to increase the model’s accuracy and realism of traffic flow representation. For example, topological enhancements and modifications to the flow advancing equation are introduced to allow variable cell lengths and non-discrete movements of vehicles between cells. In addition, implementation of lane-changing behavioral logics and algorithmic enhancements to model vehicle flows at network junctions demonstrate potential in modeling realistic non-homogeneous traffic streams in CTM. A calibration exercise was conducted to account for randomness in driving behavior using vehicle trajectory data. This proves the models potential in modeling stochastic variations of real-life networks. A sample freeway network of I-10 corridor in Baton Rouge was used to evaluate and compare the performance of the improved version of CTM versus CORSIM. The simulation results showed comparable performance of both platforms in terms of link occupancy (density) and total network travel time and demonstrate the potential of employing CTM in traffic operations applications

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am grateful to my advisor, Dr. Sherif Ishak for the ideas that led to this work, for his valuable comments, guidance, support and patience, throughout the course of this work. I thank Dr. Chester Wilmot and Dr. Brian Wolshon for their thoughtful comments along the initial proposal for this thesis topic and for being on my defense committee. Also, I want to acknowledge the successful collaboration with Prashanth Kotha on some preliminary research studies. Last but not the least I thank everyone who has remotely helped in the successful completion of this work. I dedicate this thesis to my dearest lovely and supportive wife, Anca-Alexandra, and to my family who gave me the early and the most important education. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..........................................................................................................ii LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................................