Population dynamics, agglomeration economies and municipal size. A long-term analysis

Under the hypothesis that modifications in municipal boundaries and creation (or suppression) of new administrative units reflect a progressive adjustment toward a more balanced distribution of population over space, the present study investigates the long-term relationship (1928-2012) between urban expansion, population dynamics and municipal area in a growing metropolitan region (Athens, Greece). In expanding regions, municipal size is a key variable outlining the amount and spatial concentration of services and infrastructures, resulting to be functionally related to population density, agglomeration factors, land availability to building and characteristic socioeconomic profiles of local communities. A statistical analysis of the relationship between population density and municipal area provides basic knowledge to policy and planning adjustments toward a more balanced spatial distribution of population and land among the local government units. Descriptive statistics, mapping, correlation analysis and linear regressions were used to assess the evolution of such relationship over a sufficiently long time period. The average municipal area in Athens decreased moderately over time, with a slight increase in spatial heterogeneity. Conversely, the average population density per municipality increased more rapidly, with a considerable reduction in spatial heterogeneity. The observed goodness-of-fit of the linear relationship between population density and municipal area increased significantly over time. The empirical results of our study indicate that municipal size has progressively adjusted to population density across metropolitan areas, determining a more balanced spatial distribution of the resident population, which was consolidated by the recent administrative reform of the local authorities in Greece (the so called \u2018Kallikratis\u2019 law). Such conditions represent a base for the informed analysis of the spatial structure of local administrative units and they contribute to the debate on the optimal size of municipalities and other administrative districts with relevant impact on both urban and metropolitan scales of governance

Toward a ‘Migrant Trap’? Local Development, Urban Sustainability, Sociodemographic Inequalities, and the Economic Decline in a Mediterranean Metropolis

After years following the breakdown of the Great Recession in Europe, crisis-driven urban shrinkage can be adequately investigated considering changes over time in selected demographic indicators, with a specific focus on migration. Using official statistics and a literature review, the present study documents the inherent demographic decline in metropolitan Athens (Greece) as a response to economic stagnation after a long-lasting expansion. The empirical results of our study delineate metropolitan shrinkage in Southern Europe as a process associated with complex socioeconomic conditions leading to (possibly counterintuitive) demographic outcomes as far as migration trends are concerned. Recession has determined unsustainable economic conditions especially for non-native population segments, promoting both class and ethnic segregation. The negative migration balance in the 2010s led to an intense population decline hitting settlements made already demographically fragile because of low fertility and aging. Athens became a sort of ‘migrant trap’, being progressively unattractive for incoming migration flows—both internal and international—and losing an increasingly high number of non-native residents settling in the area, especially during the ‘gold’ decade of the 2004 Olympics. A sudden reduction in immigration rates reflected both economic (recession) and non-economic (population aging, fertility reduction, and childbearing postponement) factors, causing an incipient shrinkage after secular urban growth. The empirical results of our study add to the traditional literature on ‘industrial cities shrinkage’ in Europe and contribute to (re)formulate short- and medium-term development scenarios in large agglomerations, shedding further light on the role of migration in crisis-driven processes of urban decline in Mediterranean Europe

Population dynamics and agglomeration factors: A non-linear threshold estimation of density effects

Abstract: Although Southern Europe is relatively homogeneous in terms of settlement characteristics and urban dynamics, spatial heterogeneity in its population distribution is still high, and differences across regions outline specific demographic patterns that require in-depth investigation. In such contexts, density-dependent mechanisms of population growth are a key factor regulating socio-demographic dynamics at various spatial levels. Results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution of the resident population in Greece contributes to identifying latent (density-dependent) processes of metropolitan growth over a sufficiently long time interval (1961-2011). Identification of density-dependent patterns of population growth contributes to the analysis of socioeconomic factors underlying demographic divides, possibly distinguishing between the effects of population concentration and dispersion. Population growth rates were non-linearly correlated with population density, highlighting a positive (or negative) impact of urban concentration on demographic growth when population is lower (or higher) than a fixed threshold (2800 and 1300 inhabitants/km2 in 1961 and 2011, respectively). In a context of low population density (less than 20 inhabitants/km2), the relationship between density and growth was again negative, contrasting with the positive and linear relationship observed in denser contexts. This result evidences a sort of 'depopulation' trap that leads to accelerated population decline under a defined density threshold. An improved understanding of density-dependent mechanisms of population growth and decline contributes to rethinking strategies of sustainable development and social policies more adapted to heterogeneous regional contexts

Structural changes in the employment composition and wage inequality: A comparison across European countries

Molti paesi stanno assistendo ad un'alterazione nella composizione della propria forza lavoro in seguito ad una progressiva diminuzione delle occupazioni con livelli intermedi di competenze. Alla luce di questi cambiamenti strutturali, si propone un'analisi comparativa della disuguaglianza salariale in Europa. La metodologia RIF, applicata a dati EU-SILC (2005-2013), permette di scorporare, dai differenziali di disuguaglianza, la quota imputabile alle dotazioni dei lavoratori da quella attribuibile alla capacità dei mercati di valorizzare tali risorse. L'assenza di una struttura di mercato ben definita, cui spesso si associa un deterioramento di tutte le occupazioni, può incidere seriamente sulla distribuzione salariale e, in tale processo, la componente "ritorno" riveste un ruolo fondamentale.For several years many countries have been experienced a progressive impoverishment of middle-skill jobs that has led to structural changes in their labour markets (job polarisation, upgrading or downgrading of occupations). This paper investigates how the shifts in the workforce affect wage inequality comparatively for a selection of European countries. The RIF regression, tested on the EU-SILC data (2005-2013), enables us to assess how much of inequality differentials over time is accounted for by workers' endowments rather than the capabilty of country's labour market to capitalise skills. An outright deterioration of all jobs, irrespective of skill levels required, and the lack of a well-defined structure of the labour market may jeopardise wage distribution and the return effect plays a leading role in this process

How effective are the regional policies in Europe? The role of European Funds

The European Structural and Investment Funds are the leading policy instrument through which the EU encourages growth-enhancing conditions for less well-off regions in order to make territorial cohesion within countries. In this work, we perform the Difference in Differences technique to assess the effectiveness of the 2007-2013 EU funding in achieving the convergence in employment levels across NUTS2 regions. Controlling for the socio-economic background at the regional level, a special focus is devoted to Italy. Some empirical results suggest that the EU funding was not effective enough to help the convergence for most countries

Evaluating the tourist satisfaction in five famous Italian cities

Reasoning on the satisfaction of people visiting a country or a city is very important for at least two reasons. First, more satisfied persons are more likely to spend money. Second, if they are satisfied, there will be a higher chance that they want to come back. In this paper, we investigate the perception that foreign visitors have on five cities around Italy: Florence, Milan, Naples, Rome, and Venice, which are chosen as the main destinations for travelling in Italy. By applying the counting approach and the dominance curve, we compare the perceived tourists’ satisfaction and rank the cities in terms of better performance. Data comes from the annual sample Survey on International Tourism carried out by Bank of Italy for 2016. Our results could be used by policy-makers to monitor the multidimensional aspects of tourist satisfaction in Italy, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of a given policy

Urban growth and demographic dynamics in southern Europe: Toward a new statistical approach to regional science

Metropolitan growth in Europe has resulted in drastic changes of urban forms, socio-spatial structures and land-use patterns due to sequential processes of urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization. To assess latent shifts from mono-centric models towards more disarticulated and decentralized settlement configurations, the present study evaluates spatio-temporal patterns of growth between the 1920s and the 2010s in three Mediterranean cities with different structure and functions (Barcelona: compact and moderately polycentric; Rome: dispersed, medium-density; Athens: mono-centric, hyper-compact). To identify and characterize long-term urban transformations, an original approach was illustrated in this study, based on a multivariate analysis of 13 indicators resulting from descriptive statistics and linear regression modeling the relationship between population density and distance from inner cities. The empirical results of this study indicate that Barcelona, Rome and Athens have experienced different urbanization cycles, characterized by a (more or less) concentrated distribution of population along urban gradients. Despite similarities in demographic dynamics and planning practices, these processes have determined (i) a mostly centralized growth in Barcelona, (ii) a relatively dispersed and discontinuous spatial structure in Rome, and (iii) a steep decline of population density with the distance from downtown Athens. Compact urban expansion, population decline and urban de-concentration were finally assessed using the analytical approach proposed in this study

Population dynamics, agglomeration economies and municipal size: A long-term analysis

Under the hypothesis that modifications in municipal boundaries and creation (or suppression) of new administrative units reflect a progressive adjustment toward a more balanced distribution of population over space, the present study investigates the long-term relationship (1928-2012) between urban expansion, population dynamics and municipal area in a growing metropolitan region (Athens, Greece). In expanding regions, municipal size is a key variable outlining the amount and spatial concentration of services and infrastructures, resulting to be functionally related to population density, agglomeration factors, land availability to building and characteristic socioeconomic profiles of local communities. A statistical analysis of the relationship between population density and municipal area provides basic knowledge to policy and planning adjustments toward a more balanced spatial distribution of population and land among the local government units. Descriptive statistics, mapping, correlation analysis and linear regressions were used to assess the evolution of such relationship over a sufficiently long time period. The average municipal area in Athens decreased moderately over time, with a slight increase in spatial heterogeneity. Conversely, the average population density per municipality increased more rapidly, with a considerable reduction in spatial heterogeneity. The observed goodness-of-fit of the linear relationship between population density and municipal area increased significantly over time. The empirical results of our study indicate that municipal size has progressively adjusted to population density across metropolitan areas, determining a more balanced spatial distribution of the resident population, which was consolidated by the recent administrative reform of the local authorities in Greece (the so called ‘Kallikratis’ law). Such conditions represent a base for the informed analysis of the spatial structure of local administrative units and they contribute to the debate on the optimal size of municipalities and other administrative districts with relevant impact on both urban and metropolitan scales of governance

It is the Total that Does [Not] Make the Sum: Nature, Economy and Society in the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being of the Italian Provinces

Over the last years there has been an increasing interest in measuring well-being at local level. This is mainly due to the fact that socio-economic indicators at country level do not provide a complete picture of the living conditions in a territory. Moreover, the temporal dimension is also a fundamental aspect that allows analysing the trends of local well-being over time. The aim of this paper is to provide a more in-depth analysis of territorial disparities, inequalities and divergences across the Italian territories. In particular, this paper is one of the first attempts to analyse the overtime trend of the Italian well-being at provincial level (NUTS3) using a subset of indicators recently provided by ISTAT to measure the Equitable and Sustainable Well-being (BES) at local level. We apply a Bayesian latent variable model to construct three composite indicators related to the three main pillars of well-being, namely economic, social, and environmental. These composite indicators have been estimated for all the years between 2004 and 2016 for each Italian province. Results suggest that in the period of analysis the economic well-being has worsened in almost all provinces, with weak signs of recovery starting from 2014. On the contrary, social well-being improved in almost all provinces, with some exceptions in the South. The environmental well-being has increased over time as well, more in the Northern and Central provinces than in the South