Meeting the Poverty-Reduction MDG in the Southern Cone

This paper assesses the likelihood of meeting the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015 in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. We simulate the poverty impact of changes in growth rates and redistributive policies, and trace the poverty consequences of various alternative economic scenarios using microeconometric decompositions. Sustainable and vigorous productivity growth seems to be a necessary condition to meet the poverty MDG by 2015 in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The required growth rate could be significantly lower if some modest well-targeted redistribution could be performed. In contrast to its neighbors, Chile has already achieved the poverty MDG.MDG, poverty, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay

Ethnicity and the Millennium Development Goals in Latin America and the Caribbean

ethnicity, race, MDG, poverty, education, Latin America, Caribbean

Comercio y Desigualdad Salarial en Argentina: Un Enfoque de Equilibrio General Computado.

En este trabajo, se utiliza un modelo de Equilibrio General Computado (CGE) para analizar el efecto de la apertura comercial sobre el salario de los trabajadores calificados versus el salario de los trabajadores no calificados en la Argentina. El resultado que se obtiene es que en el caso de Argentina, el comercio sólo explica una pequeña porción (alrededor de 3%) del incremento en la desigualdad salarial. Adicionalmente, se presenta una metodología que puede emplearse para realizar ejercicios de descomposición con un modelo de CGE.

“On the Marginal Cost of Public Funds for Argentina: CGE Evaluation and Sensitivity to Regulatory Regimes”

We estimate the Marginal Cost of Public Funds for Argentina using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, assessing the sensitivity of the results to the existence of alternative regulatory regimes (Price-Cap and Cost-Plus) for public utilities subject to regulation. Although the estimates are in the range of international studies, we find that the results are sensitive to the regulatory regime, to the presence of exempted goods, the existence of unemployment, the value of the elasticity of labor supply, as well as to the degree of capital mobility, between sectors and internationally.computable general equilibrium; Public Funds; Marginal Cost

Meeting the poverty-reduction MDG in the Southern Cone

Este trabajo evalúa la probabilidad de alcanzar el Objetivo del Desarrollo del Milenio de pobreza en Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Simulamos el cambio esperado en la pobreza de distintas tasas de crecimientos y políticas redistributivas, haciendo énfasis en las consecuencias de diversos escenarios creados por descomposiciones microeconométricas. El crecimiento sostenido y vigoroso parece ser una condición necesaria para alcanzar el ODM de pobreza en Argentina, Paraguay y Uruguay para el 2015. La tasa de crecimiento requerida podría ser menor si fuese factible una redistribución focalizada. A contraposición de sus vecinos, Chile ya ha alcanzado el ODM de pobreza.This paper assesses the likelihood of meeting the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015 in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. We simulate the poverty impact of changes in growth rates and redistributive policies, and trace the poverty consequences of various alternative economic scenarios using microeconometric decompositions. Sustainable and vigorous productivity growth seems to be a necessary condition to meet the poverty MDG by 2015 in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The required growth rate could be significantly lower if some modest well-targeted redistribution could be performed. In contrast to its neighbors, Chile has already achieved the poverty MDG.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS

Construcción de una Matriz de Contabilidad Social para Ecuador para el Año 2007

En este documento se describe el procedimiento seguido para la construcción de una matriz de contabilidad social (SAM; del inglés Social Accounting Matrix) para Ecuador para el año 2007. El objetivo que se persigue es facilitar la posibilidad de replicar el trabajo realizado. Asimismo, la documentación de los pasos seguidos puede servir de base para futuras actualizaciones de la SAM elaborada.

A Proximity-Based Approach to Labor Mobility in CGE Models with an Application to Sub-Saharan Africa

The ease with which workers can move between sectors has a strong impact on how shocks affect an economy. This paper introduces an approach to labor mobility with frictions. Under the approach, worker capabilities (their efficiencies in different sectors) depend on their sector affiliation. If workers belonging to sector a move to a’, their efficiency shortfall compared to workers assigned to a’ is measured by a proximity parameter, 0 ≤ proxa,a’ ≤ 1. If proxa,a’ < 1, the efficient quantity reaching a’ is below the physical quantity. In this setting, profit-maximizing producers, facing given physical worker wages (which may vary depending on sectoral affiliation), pay the same wage per efficiency unit irrespective of origin and thus pay less efficient workers a lower wage per physical unit. This approach to labor mobility is tested in a static CGE model that is applied to an illustrative sub-Saharan African dataset with sector proximities defined using the approach of the product-space literature. Simulations of positive export price shocks show that, the higher the proximities, the stronger the labor reallocation and the welfare gains.Facultad de Ciencias Económicas (FCE

A Quantitative Framework for Assessing Public Investment in Tourism : An Application to Haiti

This study develops a linked regional computable general equilibrium and micro-simulation (RCGE-MS) model to assess the regional economy-wide and poverty impacts of a US$36 million investment in tourism in the south of Haiti. The first social accounting matrix for Haiti with a base year of 2012/2013 was constructed to calibrate the model. This research addresses three key gaps identified in the tourism impact assessment literature. First, a destination-specific tourism demand and value chain analysis was used to calibrate the shocks implemented in the model. Second, the RCGE-MS approach moves beyond the representative household configuration to enable more robust analysis of tourism investment impacts on poverty and income inequality. Third, results of this modelling were used to inform a social cost-benefit analysis to provide greater transparency in the evaluation of trade-offs between investment alternatives. Considering the investment and projected tourism demand, results show a positive impact on sectoral activity, especially for the hotel and restaurant sector (182.1% in 2040). The investment leads to a 2.0% increase in Gross Regional Product in 2040 compared with the baseline. The South Department’s exports are 4.7% below baseline in 2040 and imports are 6.1% higher due to the inflow of foreign exchange and the consequent appreciation of the regional real exchange rate, increased demand for most goods and services, and limited regional productive capacity. The rate of unemployment falls, beginning at 26% in 2013 and ending at 23.4% by 2040. The investment helps lift some of the poorest in the Haiti’s South out of poverty, reducing the poverty headcount by 1.6 percentage points. Driving this result is an increase in employment, the average wage and non-labor income. The linked RCGE-MS approach proves to be a powerful tool for assessing how tourism investments affect regional economic activity and revealing the mechanisms through which tourism can contribute to increase employment opportunities and reduce poverty.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS

Case Study: Impacts of trade liberalization on poverty and inequality in Argentina: policy insights from a non-parametric CGE Microsimulation analysis

This paper studies the economic, poverty, and income inequality impacts of both world and domestic trade reform in Argentina, with a special focus on export taxes. Argentina offers an interesting case study as the only large agricultural exporter that has, at many points in its history, applied export taxes to several of its agricultural products. The paper combines results from a global economy-wide model (World Bank?s LINKAGE model), a national CGE model, and microsimulations. The results suggest that full liberalization of world trade (including subsidies and import taxes, but not export taxes), both for agricultural and non-agricultural goods, reduces poverty and inequality in Argentina. However, if only agricultural goods are included, indicators for poverty and inequality do not improve and even deteriorate somewhat. This is particularly the case if export taxes are eliminated.Poverty; trade liberalization; agricultural policy; Argentina; export taxes.

Caracterización económico-social de las provincias argentinas

En este trabajo se emplea la metodología del análisis de factores para construir indicadores sintéticos que permiten caracterizar la situación económica-social de las provincias argentinas. Partiendo de dieciséis variables se construyen tres indicadores sintéticos: económico-social; de mercado laboral; y de tasa de desempleo. Los resultados muestran el siguiente ordenamiento de las provincias argentinas según su ubicación en el ranking económico-social: 1) Ciudad de Buenos Aires; 2) Santa Cruz; 3) Chubut; 4) La Pampa; 5) Tierra del Fuego; 6) Neuquén; 7) Buenos Aires; 8) Santa Fe; 9) Córdoba; 10) Río Negro; 11) Mendoza; 12) Entre Ríos; 13) San Luis; 14) Catamarca; 15) San Juan; 16) Tucumán; 17) La Rioja; 18) Salta; 19) Jujuy; 20) Misiones; 21)Corrientes; 22) Santiago del Estero; 23) Chaco; y 24) Formosa. Una ubicación menor (mayor) indica un mejor (peor) desempeño económico-social. Se analiza la evolución temporal de la situación relativa de las provincias argentinas mediante la comparación de los resultados obtenidos con los del trabajo de Nuñez Miñana (1972). Se evalúa también la hipótesis de convergencia económico-social de las provincias argentinas.Proyecto "Disparidades Regionales y Federalismo Fiscal: Una Propuesta para la Reforma del Régimen de Coparticipación Federal de Impuestos en la Argentina" que se realiza en el Departamento de Economía de la UNLP cuenta con el apoyo de Tinker Foundation. Director del Proyecto: Dr. Alberto Porto.Departamento de Economí