Altitude or hot air?

This paper uses several econometric models to evaluate the determinants of the outcomes of the World Cup Qualifying matches played in South America. It documents the relative importance of home-field advantage and other factors. Contrary to popular belief, altitude appears not to be an important factor behind the outcome or score of a match.Bivariate Poisson; Ordered Probit; Football Match Results

Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny - general equilibrium analysis of the illegal drugs market

This paper presents a general equilibrium model for the production,trafficking, and consumption of illegal drugs which endogenously determines relative prices and quantities. The model is calibrated to characterize the market for cocaine and is used to analyze the effects of three types of policies: making the illegal activities riskier, increasing the penalties for conducting illegal activities, and legalizing previously illegal activities. Assessing the effects of these policies using the powerful tool of a general equilibrium model provides illuminating (and in cases surprising) results.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Markets and Market Access,Consumption,Currencies and Exchange Rates

Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizonForecasting, Threshold, Artificial Neural Networks, Reality Check, Bootstrap.

Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizonForecasting, Time Series, Threshold, Artificial Neural Networks, Reality Check, Bootstrap

Chile's Free Trade Deals with the EU and the US: A Big Deal?

Chile put into place broad free trade agreements (FTAs) with its two major trading partners: the EU (effective 2003) and the US (effective 2004). This paper quanti- fies their economic effects for the Chilean economy, stemming from the conventional trade components (lower tariffs and higher market access) and other aspects of the lat- ter broad FTAs, including improved intellectual property rights, factor productivity gains, and their fiscal consequences. The paper also considers that the country risk premium may decline and aggregate investment may rise in response to the institutional stability and policy credibility enhanced by the FTAs. Simulation results are reported for steady states and dynamic transition paths, based on a three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model for an open economy inhabited by infinitely-lived representative agents. The model is calibrated to the Chilean economy and the actual features of both trade agreements. The reported effects of FTAs on resource allocations, relative prices, expenditure composition, output, and welfare are generally small due to Chile's high initial trade openness; aggregate output and consumption do not exceed 1% in any given period. On impact, the largest gains come from a lower risk premium that leads to a tem- porary consumption and investment boom, which is reverted in the long run as a result of larger net foreign liabilities. In steady state, the gains from improved factor productivity dominate all other effectsChile, Free Trade Agreements

I would walk 500 miles (if it paid)

One of the pillars of the educational voucher system instituted in Chile is that competition among schools to attract students would improve the quality of the education provided. Surveys have suggested that families rank the distance of the school from their home as the most important factor for choosing a school. They also suggest that parents largely ignore the results of standardized tests. We use a novel data set which includes measures of the distance between homes and schools to analyze the determinants of school choice. Economic theory suggests, and the estimations confirm, that parents consider quality of the school and its location when choosing schools. The paper quantifies the relevant trade-offs.Vouchers; School Choice; Distance; Chile

Altitude or hot air?

This paper uses several econometric models to evaluate the determinants of the outcomes of the World Cup Qualifying matches played in South America. It documents the relative importance of home-field advantage and other factors. Contrary to popular belief, altitude appears not to be an important factor behind the outcome or score of a match

Should for-profit schools be banned?

This paper uses different methods to evaluate the performance of students of public, subsidized, and private schools; distinguishing among for-profit and non-profit schools

I would walk 500 miles (if it paid)

One of the pillars of the educational voucher system instituted in Chile is that competition among schools to attract students would improve the quality of the education provided. Surveys have suggested that families rank the distance of the school from their home as the most important factor for choosing a school. They also suggest that parents largely ignore the results of standardized tests. We use a novel data set which includes measures of the distance between homes and schools to analyze the determinants of school choice. Economic theory suggests, and the estimations confirm, that parents consider quality of the school and its location when choosing schools. The paper quantifies the relevant trade-offs

Distance to School and Competition in the Chilean Schooling System

This paper analyze the demand for educational services in a context in which households and schools are heterogeneous. Distance from student’s place of residence to schools is a key component of our model. School quality and household characteristics are also important in- gredients. Our empirical analysis uses rich and novel information from a large sample of students in Chile. We combine geo-referenced data with longitudinal information on student’s performance. Our longitudinal data contains information for 95% of the Chilean students initially enrolled in 8th grade in 2004. For each student in our data, we observe her scores in two national tests (taken during eight and tenth grades, respectively), all her grades during high school, and her performance on the Chilean standardized test of college admission. We also observe her place of residence and the locations of the schools in which her enrolled. Our results shed lights on the determinants of schooling choices. Our ultimate objective is to understand the impact of these choices on academic performance and and long-term outcomes