Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies

Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates (RER) behave differently in developed and developing countries. We develop an exogenous 2-sector growth model in which RER determination depends on the country's capacity to borrow from international capital markets. The country faces a constraint on capital inflows. With high domestic savings, the country converges to the world per capita income and RER only depends on productivity spread between sectors (Balassa-Samuelson effect). If the constraint is too tight and/or domestic savings too low, RER depends on both net foreign assets (transfer effect) and productivity. We then analyze the empirical implications of the model and find that, in accordance with the theory, RER is mainly driven by productivity and net foreign assets in constrained countries and exclusively by productivity in unconstrained countries.Real exchange rate; capital inflows constraint; overlapping generations

Efficiency and production frontiers in the aftermath of recessions: international evidence

The relationship between recessions and productivity growth has been the focus of an important body of theoretical and empirical research in the last two decades. We contribute to this literature by presenting new evidence on the evolution of productivity in the aftermath of recessions. Our method allows us to distinguish between frontier and (in-)efficiency effects of recessions. We present international evidence for a panel of 70 countries for the 1960-2000 period. Our results reveal that the average cumulative impact of recessions on productivity up to four years after its end is negative and significant. This, however, results from a mixture of mechanisms. The level of frontier production increases, but the rate of technical progress decreases, leading to a fall in frontier production. Efficiency also falls, lending support for the idea that recessions tend to reduce, rather than increase, economic restructuring. Long and deep recessions are also shown to have distinctive impacts on productivity

A note on the relationship between real wages and employment: Further evidence from panel cointegration tests

Purpose – Tests for the existence of a long-run relationship between real wages and employment, utilising annual data from 1961-1996 for a panel of 12 European Union countries. Design/methodology/approach – Applies modern time series techniques organised around panel unit root and panel cointegration tests to draw sharper conclusions from the short time series that are typically available. Findings – Indicates that a long-run relationship between real wages and employment cannot be established. This being so, little success is expected in bringing down unemployment, the most pressing problem in the European Union, by reducing real wages. Originality/value – Investigates the long-run relationship between real wages and employment by conducting more reliable tests in the context of 12 European countries, namely Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, the UK, Norway and Finland over the period 1961-1996.Pay Policies, unemployment

Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests,”

Abstract In this paper we investigate the long run relationship between financial depth and economic growth, trying to utilize the data in the most efficient manner via panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. In addition, we use threshold cointegration tests, and dynamic panel data estimation for a panel-based vector error correction model. The long run relationship is estimated using fully modified OLS. For 10 developing countries, the empirical results provide clear support for the hypothesis that there is a single equilibrium relation between financial depth, growth and ancillary variables, and that the only cointegrating relation implies unidirectional causality from financial depth to growth.

Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model

In this paper we propose Granger (non-)causality tests based on a VAR model allowing for time-varying coefficients. The functional form of the time-varying coefficients is a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model using time as the transition variable. The model allows for testing Granger non-causality when the VAR is subject to a smooth break in the coefficients of the Granger causal variables. The proposed test then is applied to the money-output relationship using quarterly US data for the period 1952:2-2002:4. We find that causality from money to output becomes stronger after 1978:4 and the model is shown to have a good out of sample forecasting performance for output relative to a linear VAR model.Granger causality; Time-varying coefficients; LSTAR models