Organic Cation Transporter 3: A Cellular Mechanism Underlying Rapid, Non-Genomic Glucocorticoid Regulation of Monoaminergic Neurotransmission, Physiology, and Behavior

Corticosteroid hormones act at intracellular glucocorticoid receptors (GR) and mineralocorticoid receptors (MR) to alter gene expression, leading to diverse physiological and behavioral responses. In addition to these classical genomic effects, corticosteroid hormones also exert rapid actions on physiology and behavior through a variety of non-genomic mechanisms, some of which involve GR or MR, and others of which are independent of these receptors. One such GR-independent mechanism involves corticosteroid-induced inhibition of monoamine transport mediated by “uptake2” transporters, including organic cation transporter 3 (OCT3), a low-affinity, high-capacity transporter for norepinephrine, epinephrine, dopamine, serotonin and histamine. Corticosterone directly and acutely inhibits OCT3-mediated transport. This review describes the studies that initially characterized uptake2 processes in peripheral tissues, and outlines studies that demonstrated OCT3 expression and corticosterone-sensitive monoamine transport in the brain. Evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis that corticosterone can exert rapid, GR-independent actions on neuronal physiology and behavior by inhibiting OCT3-mediated monoamine clearance. Implications of this mechanism for glucocorticoid-monoamine interactions in the context-dependent regulation of behavior are discussed

Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage

Shleifer and Vishny (1997) pointed out some of the practical and theoretical problems associated with assuming that rational risk-arbitrage would quickly drive asset prices back to long-run equilibrium. In particular, they showed that the possibility that asset price disequilibrium would worsen, before being corrected, tends to limit rational speculators. Uniquely, Shleifer and Vishny (1997) showed that “performance-based asset management” would tend to reduce risk-arbitrage when it is needed most, when asset prices are furthest from equilibrium. We analyze a generalized Shleifer and Vishny (1997) model for central bank intervention. We show that increasing availability of arbitrage capital has a pronounced effect on the dynamic intervention strategy of the central bank. Intervention is reduced during periods of moderate misalignment and amplified at times of extreme misalignment. This pattern is consistent with empirical observation.

Predicting exchange rate volatility: genetic programming vs. GARCH and RiskMetrics

This article investigates the use of genetic programming to forecast out-of-sample daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Forecasting performance is evaluated relative to GARCH(1,1) and RiskMetrics models for two currencies, DEM and JPY. Although the GARCH/RiskMetrics models appear to have a inconsistent marginal edge over the genetic program using the mean-squared-error (MSE) and R2 criteria, the genetic program consistently produces lower mean absolute forecast errors (MAE) at all horizons and for both currencies.Foreign exchange rates ; Forecasting ; Programming (Mathematics)

Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies, a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model. When realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account, we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology. Thus, our results are consistent with market efficiency. We do, however, find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data.Foreign exchange

Evaluating Pooled Evidence from the Reemployment Bonus Experiments

Social experiments conducted in Pennsylvania and Washington tested the effect of offering Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants a cash bonus for rapid reemployment. This paper combines data from the two experiments and uses a consistent framework to evaluate the experiments and determine with greater certainty the extent to which a reemployment bonus can affect economic outcomes. Bonus offers in each of the experiments generated statistically significant but relatively modest reductions in UI receipt. Since the estimated impacts on UI receipt were modest, the reemployment bonuses did not generate the UI savings necessary to pay for administering and paying the bonuses. Hence, contrary to earlier findings from a bonus experiment conducted in Illinois, findings from the Pennsylvania and Washington experiments strongly suggest that a reemployment bonus is not a cost-effective method of speeding the reemployment of UI claimants.unemployment, insurance, bonus, experiments, O'Leary, Decker

Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market

This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. Technicians view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders’ psychological regularities. The literature on technical analysis has established that simple technical trading rules on dollar exchange rates provided 15 years of positive, risk-adjusted returns during the 1970s and 80s before those returns were extinguished. More recently, more complex and less studied rules have produced more modest returns for a similar length of time. Conventional explanations that rely on risk adjustment and/or central bank intervention are not plausible justifications for the observed excess returns from following simple technical trading rules. Psychological biases, however, could contribute to the profitability of these rules. We view the observed pattern of excess returns to technical trading rules as being consistent with an adaptive markets view of the world.Foreign exchange rates

Lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies

The adaptive markets hypothesis posits that trading strategies evolve as traders adapt their behavior to changing circumstances. This paper studies the evolution of trading strategies for a hypothetical trader who chooses portfolios from foreign exchange (forex) technical rules in major and emerging markets, the carry trade, and U.S. equities. The results show that forex trading alone dramatically outperforms the S&P 500 but there is little gain to coordinating forex and equity strategies, which explains why practitioners consider these tools separately. In addition, a backtesting procedure to choose optimal portfolios does not select carry trade strategies until well into the 1990s, which helps to explain the relatively recent surge in interest in this strategy. Forex trading returns dip significantly in the 1990s but recover by the end of the decade and have greatly outperformed an equity position since 1998. Overall, trading rule returns still exist in forex markets—with substantial stability in the types of rules—though they have migrated to emerging markets to a considerable degree.Foreign exchange ; Trade