Doing More for Our Children: Modeling a Universal Child Allowance or More Generous Child Tax Credit

Child poverty in the United States remains stubbornly high, with 12.2 million children living in poverty in 2013. Nearly 17 percent of children in the United States lived in poverty in 2013 -- a higher rate than for other age groups, and considerably higher than the child poverty rate in other advanced industrialized countries. The U.S. deep child poverty rate -- children who live in families with incomes less than half of the poverty line -- was 4.5 percent of all children in 2013, meaning nearly 1 in 20 children live in families that cannot even afford half of what is considered a minimally adequate living.One key policy for reducing child poverty is the child tax credit (CTC) -- which reduces the child poverty rate from 18.8 percent to 16.5 percent of American children. There is broad acceptance of the importance of the CTC, and key expansions to the CTC were made permanent at the end of 2015. At a moment when leaders ranging from President Barack Obama to Speaker Paul Ryan are talking about poverty, now is an opportune time to explore policy options that would build on this success. This report models two approaches to reduce child poverty in the United States even further -- a universal child allowance and an expanded CTC.A universal child allowance is a cash benefit that is provided to all families with children without regard to their income, earnings, or other qualifying conditions, and that could be subject to taxes for families with high incomes. The U.S. child tax credit, in contrast, is provided only to families that meet a threshold for earnings, phasing in as earnings increase and then phasing out as earnings rise higher. While most other advanced industrialized countries have some kind of universal support for children, the United States does not.For each approach, we begin with a modest reform, and then model increasingly generous versions. In our simulations, we find that even the modest reforms generate important poverty reductions. Our results also make clear that the more we spend on these programs, the greater the reduction in poverty the United States can achieve

The effect of different post-exercise beverages with food on ad libitum fluid recovery, nutrient provision, and subsequent athletic performance

This study investigated the effect of consuming either water or a carbohydrate (CHO)-electrolyte sports beverage (‘Sports Drink’) ad libitum with food during a 4 h post-exercise recovery period on fluid restoration, nutrient provision and subsequent endurance cycling performance. On two occasions, 16 endurance-trained cyclists; 8 male [M] (age: 31 ± 9 y; VO2max: 54 ± 6 mL·kg−1·min−1) and 8 female [F] (age: 33 ± 8 y; VO2max: 50 ± 7 mL·kg−1·min−1); lost 2.3 ± 0.3% and 1.6 ± 0.3% of their body mass (BM), respectively during 1 h of fixed-intensity cycling. Participants then had ad libitum access to either Water or Sports Drink and food for the first 195 min of a 4 h recovery period. At the conclusion of the recovery period, participants completed a cycling performance test consisting of a 45 min fixed-intensity pre-load and an incremental test to volitional exhaustion (peak power output, PPO). Beverage intake; total water/nutrient intake; and indicators of fluid recovery (BM, urine output, plasma osmolality [POSM]) were assessed periodically throughout trials. Participants returned to a similar state of net positive fluid balance prior to recommencing exercise, regardless of the beverage provided (Water: +0.4 ± 0.5 L; Sports Drink: +0.3 ± 0.3 L, p = 0.529). While Sports Drink increased post-exercise energy (M: +1.8 ± 1.0 MJ; F: +1.3 ± 0.5 MJ) and CHO (M: +114 ± 31 g; F: +84 ± 25 g) intake (i.e. total from food and beverage) (p's < 0.001), this did not improve subsequent endurance cycling performance (Water: 337 ± 40 W [M] and 252 ± 50 W [F]; Sports Drink: 340 ± 40 W [M] and 258 ± 47 W [F], p = 0.242). Recovery beverage recommendations should consider the post-exercise environment (i.e. the availability of food), an individual's tolerance for food and fluid pre−/post-exercise, the immediate requirements for refuelling (i.e. CHO demands of the activity) and the athlete's overall dietary goals.Full Tex

Ontological Understanding And The State Model Of Processes

A general model of processes is developed based on a systematic study and joint resolution of the main ontological issues concerning time, space, individuals, qualities and relations. Beginning with the goal of finding a theory or conceptual scheme for understanding change, four constraints on the study\u27s scope are adopted: the traditional ontological concepts mentioned above are the study\u27s starting points; a realist orientation, interpreting the goal of ontology as giving a literal description of the most general features of what exists and how it behaves, is adopted; change is construed as the recombination of fundamental existents; and the fundamental existents are held to be uncreated and indestructible.;The view of understanding as knowledge gained through conceptual revision and integration is the basis of the method followed. Alternative conceptions of time, space, individuals, qualities, and relations are critically and systematically surveyed in the context of the state model of processes. This model construes change as a temporally-ordered series of states where each state consists of one or more spatially oriented individuals exemplifying qualities or relations.;It is argued that an Absolutist theory of space-time provides the best account of the ordering of states in a process and of the motion, orientation and identities of individuals. Individuals, it is shown, are best construed as consisting of portions of matter in which universal qualities are immanent. From these discussions it emerges that each fundamental existent--space-time, matter and each quality--is an expansive unity containing parts whose existence and interrelation are inseparable. This leads to a discussion of the mutally supportive contributions of ontological analysis and synthesis to understanding processes and, in particular, justifies appealing to laws of nature in accounts of existents and events that cannot fruitfully be analysed

Fire Resistance Ramifications of High-Strength A615 and A706 Rebar

Fire is one of the most serious threats that a structure may experience during its service life. Thermal expansion, extreme temperature gradients, and degrading material properties can lead to structural failure. Structural fire resistance is addressed in building codes, and has grown more robust over the years. Past research has studied normal strength (Grade 60) rebar, but information regarding high strength rebar is incomplete. To ensure that the current standards of practice accurately predict the behavior of hot-rolled, high strength rebar at elevated temperature, an experimental study was conducted at Lehigh University. Samples of #8 ASTM A615 Grades 60, 75, and 100 and ASTM A706 Grades 60 and 80 reinforcement were tested in tension using an electrically heated ceramic furnace and a universal testing machine. The stress-strain behavior along with the elastic modulus, yield strength, and ultimate strength were determined through constant temperature tests. A metallurgical microstructure analysis was conducted on samples from testing to observe changes in the steel microstructure. The test methods were modeled after past research and the rate of loading and sample sizes conformed to current ASTM standards. The test results showed good agreement with the current reduction values for elastic modulus and yield strength found in Eurocode. The test results showed poor agreement with the current reduction values for yield strength found in ACI 216 (2014). Eurocode assumes ultimate total elongation to be constant in its material stress-strain model. The test results showed poor agreement with the current total elongation values found in Eurocode. A computational analysis was performed to determine the effect on reinforced concrete beam elements containing rebar with the experimental strength reduction properties. Performance was compared with beams using ACI 216 and Eurocode steel reduction properties. The current data shows that the Eurocode material model for hot-rolled steel at elevated temperature does not fully predict the stress-strain behavior of these bars. Modifications to the Eurocode material model are proposed. The new model is suitable for a performance-based approach to structural fire resistant design of reinforced concrete members

Trade costs, 1870–2000

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half? Was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade? To address this question, we derive a micro-founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods. Thus, we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs, transportation costs, and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede international trade but that are inherently difficult to observe. We use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913, its retreat from 1921 to 1939, and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000. We find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre–World War I trade boom and 33 percent of the post–World War II trade boom, while a precipitous rise in trade costs explains the entire interwar trade bust

Trends in Child Poverty by Race/Ethnicity: New Evidence Using an Anchored Historical Supplemental Poverty Measure

Official poverty statistics have been criticized, however, for being based on an outdated measure of poverty (Blank, 2008; Citro and Michael, 1995). First put into use in the 1960s, the official poverty measure’s (OPM) concept of needs has been updated for inflation but still reflects the living standards, family budgets, and family structures of that time. Moreover, when tallying family resources, the OPM misses key government programs such as Food Stamps and tax credits that have expanded since the 1960s. For these reasons, the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implemented an improved “supplemental poverty measure” (SPM) in 2011 (Short 2011) for calendar years 2009 and 2010. This SPM is now released annually alongside the OPM (see Short 2015 for the latest data as of this writing), but the Census Bureau has no plans to produce the measure historically. However, historical data on levels and trends in poverty are essential for better understanding the progress the country has made since Lyndon B. Johnson’s famous declaration of the War on Poverty in the 1960s. Understanding what has been successful in the past is important for assessing what might be successful in the future for amelioration of economic disadvantage. What’s more, success and its sources may vary by race/ethnicity. We use a historical version of the SPM to provide the first estimates of racial/ethnic differences in child poverty for the period 1970 to the present using this improved measure. We begin our analysis in 1970 because that is the first year we can reliably distinguish non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, and Latinos (unfortunately, data limitations prevent us from examining other groups over the long term). We detail below our data and methods, then describe our main results, and conclude briefly. Data and Methods We use data from multiple years of the Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement (also known as the March CPS) combined with data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) to produce SPM estimates for the period 1970 to 2014. We use a methodology similar to that used by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in producing their SPM estimates, but with adjustments for differences in available data over time. Our methodology differs from the SPM in only one respect. Instead of using a poverty threshold that is re-calculated over time, we use today’s threshold and carry it back historically by adjusting it for inflation using the CPI-U-RS. Because this alternative measure is anchored with today’s SPM threshold, we refer to it as an anchored supplemental poverty measure, or anchored SPM for short. An advantage of an anchored SPM is that poverty trends resulting from such a measure can be explained only by changes in income and net transfer payments (cash or in kind). Trends in poverty based on a relative measure (e.g. SPM poverty), on the other hand, could be due to over time changes in thresholds. Thus, an anchored SPM arguably provides a cleaner measure of how changes in income and net transfer payments have affected poverty historically (Wimer et al., 2013).[1] [1] All analyses in this paper are also available using quasi-relative poverty thresholds; results are available upon request

Students’ perceptions of using Facebook as an interactive learning resource at university

Facebook is a popular platform that may facilitate learning activities at university. In this study, students' perceptions of using 'Facebook pages' within individual university subject offerings were evaluated. Individual 'Facebook pages' were developed for four university courses and used to provide information relevant to the courses and allow opportunities for student interaction. An initial questionnaire administered in the first lecture of semester indicated that nearly all students (n=161, 93.1%) possessed an active Facebook account. Most students (n=135, 78.0%) anticipated that a Facebook page would facilitate their learning, by increased interaction with students and instructors, and notifications for course information. A second questionnaire was completed in the final lecture of semester indicating that 81.9% of students engaged with the course Facebook page at some stage. However, perceptions of the effectiveness of the page as a learning tool were variable, with only 51% of students stating that it was effective. Despite this, the majority of students (n=110, 76.4%) recommended using Facebook in future courses. This preliminary evaluation of Facebook as a learning aid suggests that it has the potential to promote collaborative and cooperative learning, but further research is required, specifically to understand if and how it can enhance learning

Transit Detection in the MEarth Survey of Nearby M Dwarfs: Bridging the Clean-First, Search-Later Divide

In the effort to characterize the masses, radii, and atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets, there is an urgent need to find examples of such planets transiting nearby M dwarfs. The MEarth Project is an ongoing effort to do so, as a ground-based photometric survey designed to detect exoplanets as small as 2 Earth radii transiting mid-to-late M dwarfs within 33 pc of the Sun. Unfortunately, identifying transits of such planets in photometric monitoring is complicated both by the intrinsic stellar variability that is common among these stars and by the nocturnal cadence, atmospheric variations, and instrumental systematics that often plague Earth-bound observatories. Here we summarize the properties of MEarth data gathered so far, and we present a new framework to detect shallow exoplanet transits in wiggly and irregularly-spaced light curves. In contrast to previous methods that clean trends from light curves before searching for transits, this framework assesses the significance of individual transits simultaneously while modeling variability, systematics, and the photometric quality of individual nights. Our Method for Including Starspots and Systematics in the Marginalized Probability of a Lone Eclipse (MISS MarPLE) uses a computationally efficient semi-Bayesian approach to explore the vast probability space spanned by the many parameters of this model, naturally incorporating the uncertainties in these parameters into its evaluation of candidate events. We show how to combine individual transits processed by MISS MarPLE into periodic transiting planet candidates and compare our results to the popular Box-fitting Least Squares (BLS) method with simulations. By applying MISS MarPLE to observations from the MEarth Project, we demonstrate the utility of this framework for robustly assessing the false alarm probability of transit signals in real data. [slightly abridged]Comment: accepted to the Astronomical Journal, 21 pages, 12 figure