1,141 research outputs found

    Acquisition Values and Optimal Financial (In)Flexibility

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    In this paper, the authors analyze optimal financial structure for an incumbent and potential entrant accounting for feedback effects in secondary asset markets.Financial Flexibility; Market Entry; Acquisition; Exit Values; Predation; Financial Contracting; Product Market Competition

    Controls, belief updating, and bias in medical RCTs

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    We develop a formal model of placebo e§ects. If subjects in seemingly-ideal single-stage RCTsupdate beliefs about breakthroughs based upon personal physiological responses, mental e§ectsdi§er across medications received, treatment versus control. Consequently, the average cross-arm health di§erence becomes a biased estimator. Constructively, we show: bias can be alteredthrough choice of control; higher-e¢ cacy controls mitigate upward bias; and e¢ cacy states canbe revealed through controls of intermediate e¢ cacy or controls that mimic a subset of e¢ cacystates. Consistent with experimental evidence, our theory implies outcomes within-arm andcross-arm di§erences can be non-monotone in treatment probability. Finally, we develop noveldi§erences-in-di§erences and triangle equality tests to detect RCT bias

    Goodhart's law and machine learning: a structural perspective

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    We develop a simple structural model to illustrate how penalized regressions generate Goodhart bias when training data are clean but covariates are manipulated at known cost by future agents. With quadratic (extremely steep) manipulation costs, bias is proportional to Ridge (Lasso) penalization. If costs depend on absolute or percentage manipulation, the following algorithm yields manipulation-proof prediction: Within training data, evaluate candidate coefficients at their respective incentive-compatible manipulation configuration. We derive analytical coefficient adjustments: slopes (intercept) shift downward if costs depend on percentage (absolute) manipulation. Statisticians ignoring manipulation costs select socially suboptimal penalization. Model averaging reduces these manipulation costs

    Fluid-fluid phase separation in a soft porous medium

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    Various biological and chemical processes lead to the nucleation and growth of non-wetting fluid bubbles within the pore space of a granular medium, such as the formation of gas bubbles in liquid-saturated lake-bed sediments. In sufficiently soft porous materials, the non-wetting nature of these bubbles can result in the formation of open cavities within the granular solid skeleton. Here, we consider this process through the lens of phase separation, where thermomechanics govern the separation of the non-wetting phase from a fluid-fluid-solid mixture. We construct a phase-field model informed by large-deformation poromechanics, in which two immiscible fluids interact with a poroelastic solid skeleton. Our model captures the competing effects of elasticity and fluid-fluid-solid interactions. We use a phase-field damage model to capture the mechanics of the granular solid. As a model problem, we consider an initial distribution of non-wetting fluid in the pore space that separates into multiple cavities. We use simulations and linear-stability analysis to identify the key parameters that control phase separation, the conditions that favour the formation of cavities, and the characteristic size of the resulting cavities

    ‘The Only Logic of Trident is Omnicide’: Christopher Helali interviews Peace Activist Martha Hennessy

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    Interview with Martha Hennessy, the granddaughter of Dorothy Day, co-founder of the Catholic Worker, on her life, her anti-nuclear and peace activism, and ongoing trial as part of the Kings Bay Plowshares 7

    Aerobic, resistance, and mind-body exercise are equivalent to mitigate symptoms of depression in older adults: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

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    Background: Exercise has been identified as an allied health strategy that can support the management of depression in older adults, yet the relative effectiveness for different exercise modalities is unknown. To meet this gap in knowledge, we present a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to examine the head-to-head effectiveness of aerobic, resistance, and mind-body exercise to mitigate depressive symptoms in adults aged ≥ 65 years. Methods: A PRISMA-NMA compliant review was undertaken on RCTs from inception to September 12 th, 2019. PubMed, Web of Science, CINAHL, Health Source: Nursing/Academic Edition, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, and SPORTDiscus were systematically searched for eligible RCTs enrolling adults with a mean age ≥ 65 years, comparing one or more exercise intervention arms, and which used valid measures of depressive symptomology. Comparative effectiveness was evaluated using network meta-analysis to combine direct and indirect evidence, controlling for inherent variation in trial control groups. Results: The systematic review included 81 RCTs, with 69 meeting eligibility for the network meta-analysis ( n = 5,379 participants). Pooled analysis found each exercise type to be effective compared with controls (Hedges' g = -0.27 to -0.51). Relative head-to-head comparisons were statistically comparable between exercise types: resistance versus aerobic (Hedges' g = -0.06, PrI = -0.91, 0.79), mind-body versus aerobic (Hedges' g = -0.12, PrI = -0.95, 0.72), mind-body versus resistance (Hedges' g = -0.06, PrI = -0.90, 0.79). High levels of compliance were demonstrated for each exercise treatment. Conclusions: Aerobic, resistance, and mind-body exercise demonstrate equivalence to mitigate symptoms of depression in older adults aged ≥ 65 years, with comparably encouraging levels of compliance to exercise treatment. These findings coalesce with previous findings in clinically depressed older adults to encourage personal preference when prescribing exercise for depressive symptoms in older adults, irrespective of severity. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42018115866 (23/11/2018). © 2020 Miller KJ et al
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