What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006)http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64361/1/wp893.pd

Long-run strong-exogeneity

This note supplements the paper by Pradel and Rault (2003) "Exogeneity in VAR-ECM models with purely exogenous long-run paths", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. In particuliar, we propose a condition to distinguish between cointegration amongst "endogenous" and "exogenous" variables and also between cointegrating vectors appearing in the equations of the "endogenous" and "exogenous" variables, i.e in the conditional and marginal models. This condition that we call "long-run strong-exogeneity" has a practical appealing aspect since it permits valid long-run forecasts from the conditional model alone.cointegration, exogeneity, weak exogeneity

Further results on weak-exogeneity in vector error correction models

This paper provides a necessary and sufficient condition for weak exogeneity in vector error correction models. An interesting property is that the statistics involved in the sequential procedure for testing this condition are distributed as ?ariables and can therefore easily be calculated with usual statistical computer packages, which makes our approach fully operational empirically. Finally, the power and size distortions of this sequential test procedure are analysed with Monte-Carlo simulationsCointegration, canonical representation, weak-exogeneity, power, size distortions.

A re-examination of the Purchasing Power Parity using non-stationary dynamic panel methods : a comparative approach for developing and developed countries

The aim of this paper is to apply recent advances in the econometrics of non-stationary dynamic panel methods to examine the robustness of the PPP concept for a sample of 73 developed and developing countries. Our investigations indicate that the strong PPP is verified for OECD and MENA countries. However in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the PECO, PPP does not seem relevant to characterize the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. A widening of our analysis field shows that the nature of the exchange rate regime doesn’t condition the validity of the PPP and that the PPP is more easily accepted in countries with high inflation than with low one.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39956/3/wp570.pd

Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU

Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend-and-tax causality is found for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, while tax-and-spend evidence is present for Germany, Belgium, Austria, Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64366/1/wp944.pd

Does the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Hold for Asian Countries? An Empirical Analysis using Panel Data Cointegration Tests

This paper tests empirically the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis using annual data for 6 Asian countries. We apply new panel data cointegration techniques recently developed by Pedroni (2000) and we compare the results with those obtained with conventional Johansen (1995)’s time series cointegration tests. Whereas, standard time series approach turns out to be able to put in evidence a significant long-run relationship between real exchange rate and productivity differential; this relationship is strongly rejected for all countries using recent advances in the econometrics of non-stationary dynamic panel methods. Closer examinations of the three key components of the BS hypothesis enable us to identify clearly the causes of this empirical failure. We find that the absence of a positive long-run relationship between productivity differential and relative prices is the reason for this rejection.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39889/3/wp504.pd

On the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries : Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia

The main goal of this paper is to tackle the empirical issues of the real exchange rate litterature by applying recently developed panel cointegration techniques to a structural long-run real exchange rate equation. We consider here a sample of 45 developing countries, divided into three groups according to geographical criteria: Africa, Latin America and Asia. Our investigations confirm that having a reference to assess the degree of distortion of real exchange rate is not as simple as it can be thought with the PPP concept. The real exchange rate is e?ectively at the centre of an economic spiral and its value depends on the economic specificities of each country. In other words, we don’t have a fixed and general norm but, for each economy, the real exchange rate trajectory depends on its development level, on the way economic policy is conducted, and on its position on the international market.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39957/3/wp571.pd

Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?

We apply recent panel cointegration methods to a structural equation between government expenditure and revenue. Allowing for multiple endogenous breaks and after computing appropriate bootstrap critical values, we conclude for fiscal sustainability in the overall EU15 panel.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64355/1/wp902.pd

The sources of Real Exchange Fluctuations in Developing Countries : an Econometric Investigation

In this paper we address the two following questions: (1) what are the major sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in developing countries? (2) do economic policy makers have room to face possible real exchange rate fluctuations? To answer these questions, we estimate a structural VAR model for 3 developing countries (Morocco, The Philippines, Uruguay) and carry out the conventional exercises of impulse response functions and of variance decomposition of forecast error. Our investigatation suggest that domestic shocks dominate real exchange rate fluctuations and that the contribution of external shocks is relatively low. Besides, the low contribution of the nominal shock put into question monetary policies which seek to promote competitiveness through a currency devaluation. Moreover, our estimations confirm that the real exchange rate also depends on shocks on foreign interest rate and/or on the terms of exchange which can make it move from its equilibrium level. The budgetary tool therefore remains efficient to stabilize the real exchange rate with respect to possible external shocks.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40039/3/wp653.pd

Some New Insights into Currency Boards: Evidence from Bulgaria

The presence of a Currency Board (CB) monetary system in Bulgaria is a key factor in assessing monetary policy transmission, since a CB implies no monetary autonomy. Using the SVAR technique according to the statistical properties of macroeconomic time series, we propose evidence sustaining the endogeneity of main Bulgarian monetary aggregates to shocks on the ECB interest rate. These results shed a new perspective over CB functioning.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64349/1/wp903.pd