A Bayesian Markov Chain Approach Using Proportions Labour Market Data for Greek Regions

This paper focuses on Greek labour market dynamics at a regional base, which comprises of 16 provinces, as defined by NUTS levels 1 and 2 (Eurostat, 2008), using Markov Chains for proportions data for the first time in the literature. We apply a Bayesian approach, which employs a Monte Carlo Integration procedure that uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of transition probabilities from full employment to part employment, unemployment and economically unregistered unemployment and vice a versa. Our results show that there are disparities in the transition probabilities across regions, implying that the convergence of the Greek labour market at a regional base is far from being considered as completed. However, some common patterns are observed as regions in the south of the country exhibit similar transition probabilities between different states of the labour market.Greek Regions, Employment, Unemployment, Markov Chains.

Transition of Social Welfare in the European Country Clubs

This paper focuses on the dynamics of welfare by studying the persistence and transition of poverty risk, social transfers, employment and unemployment in the four European Country Clubs as defined by Esping-Andersen, G. (1990) and Bertola et al. (2001). We model their evolution in a multistate Markov process for proportions of aggregate data and estimate the transition matrix by adopting a Bayesian approach under inequality constraints and Monte Carlo Integration. Our approach uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of persistence and transition probabilities, for which statistical inference is readily available. The results show high persistence in unemployment rate in the Anglo-Saxon social club, whilst regarding social expenditures the four identified social clubs converge to two, the Nordic with the Continental club and the Anglo-Saxon with the Southern club. The half life statistics show fast pace across all variables of interest.Social Clubs, Markov Chains, Monte Carlo Integration, Transition

Automorphism Inducing Diffeomorphisms, Invariant Characterization of Homogeneous 3-Spaces and Hamiltonian Dynamics of Bianchi Cosmologies

An invariant description of Bianchi Homogeneous (B.H.) 3-spaces is presented, by considering the action of the Automorphism Group on the configuration space of the real, symmetric, positive definite, $3\times 3$ matrices. Thus, the gauge degrees of freedom are removed and the remaining (gauge invariant) degrees, are the --up to 3-- curvature invariants. An apparent discrepancy between this Kinematics and the Quantum Hamiltonian Dynamics of the lower Class A Bianchi Types, occurs due to the existence of the Outer Automorphism Subgroup. This discrepancy is satisfactorily removed by exploiting the quantum version of some classical integrals of motion (conditional symmetries) which are recognized as corresponding to the Outer Automorphisms.Comment: 18 pages, LaTeX2e, no figures, one table, to appear in Communications in Mathematical Physic

The General Solution of Bianchi Type VIIhVII_h Vacuum Cosmology

The theory of symmetries of systems of coupled, ordinary differential equations (ODE) is used to develop a concise algorithm in order to obtain the entire space of solutions to vacuum Bianchi Einstein Field Equations (EFEs). The symmetries used are the well known automorphisms of the Lie algebra for the corresponding isometry group of each Bianchi Type, as well as the scaling and the time re-parametrization symmetry. The application of the method to Type VII_h results in (a) obtaining the general solution of Type VII_0 with the aid of the third Painlev\'{e} transcendental (b) obtaining the general solution of Type $VII_h$ with the aid of the sixth Painlev\'{e} transcendental (c) the recovery of all known solutions (six in total) without a prior assumption of any extra symmetry (d) The discovery of a new solution (the line element given in closed form) with a G_3 isometry group acting on T_3, i.e. on time-like hyper-surfaces, along with the emergence of the line element describing the flat vacuum Type VII_0 Bianchi Cosmology.Comment: latex2e source file, 27 pages, 2 tables, no fiure

Conditional Symmetries and the Canonical Quantization of Constrained Minisuperspace Actions: the Schwarzschild case

A conditional symmetry is defined, in the phase-space of a quadratic in velocities constrained action, as a simultaneous conformal symmetry of the supermetric and the superpotential. It is proven that such a symmetry corresponds to a variational (Noether) symmetry.The use of these symmetries as quantum conditions on the wave-function entails a kind of selection rule. As an example, the minisuperspace model ensuing from a reduction of the Einstein - Hilbert action by considering static, spherically symmetric configurations and r as the independent dynamical variable, is canonically quantized. The conditional symmetries of this reduced action are used as supplementary conditions on the wave function. Their integrability conditions dictate, at a first stage, that only one of the three existing symmetries can be consistently imposed. At a second stage one is led to the unique Casimir invariant, which is the product of the remaining two, as the only possible second condition on $\Psi$. The uniqueness of the dynamical evolution implies the need to identify this quadratic integral of motion to the reparametrisation generator. This can be achieved by fixing a suitable parametrization of the r-lapse function, exploiting the freedom to arbitrarily rescale it. In this particular parametrization the measure is chosen to be the determinant of the supermetric. The solutions to the combined Wheeler - DeWitt and linear conditional symmetry equations are found and seen to depend on the product of the two "scale factors"Comment: 20 pages, LaTeX2e source file, no figure

Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility

Assuming the time series of random returns to be jointly elliptical, we derive a relationship between its conditional variance and the probability density function of the conditioning set. In the case that such a relationship is linear in a quadratic form for of the conditioning variables, we show that the probability density function of the conditioning variables is multivariate t. This result is then applied to models of conditionally random volatility and used to derive exact results for the GARCH(p,q) class of processes previously thought to be intractable.Elliptical Distributions, Financial Asset Returns, Conditional Volatility, GARCH

Towards Canonical Quantum Gravity for G1 Geometries in 2+1 Dimensions with a Lambda--Term

The canonical analysis and subsequent quantization of the (2+1)-dimensional action of pure gravity plus a cosmological constant term is considered, under the assumption of the existence of one spacelike Killing vector field. The proper imposition of the quantum analogues of the two linear (momentum) constraints reduces an initial collection of state vectors, consisting of all smooth functionals of the components (and/or their derivatives) of the spatial metric, to particular scalar smooth functionals. The demand that the midi-superspace metric (inferred from the kinetic part of the quadratic (Hamiltonian) constraint) must define on the space of these states an induced metric whose components are given in terms of the same states, which is made possible through an appropriate re-normalization assumption, severely reduces the possible state vectors to three unique (up to general coordinate transformations) smooth scalar functionals. The quantum analogue of the Hamiltonian constraint produces a Wheeler-DeWitt equation based on this reduced manifold of states, which is completely integrated.Comment: Latex 2e source file, 25 pages, no figures, final version (accepted in CQG

Transition of Social Welfare in the European Country Clubs

This paper focuses on the dynamics of welfare by studying the persistence and transition of poverty risk, social transfers, employment and unemployment in the four European Country Clubs as defined by Esping-Andersen, G. (1990) and Bertola et al. (2001). We model their evolution in a multistate Markov process for proportions of aggregate data and estimate the transition matrix by adopting a Bayesian approach under inequality constraints and Monte Carlo Integration. Our approach uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of persistence and transition probabilities, for which statistical inference is readily available. The results show high persistence in unemployment rate in the Anglo-Saxon social club, whilst regarding social expenditures the four identified social clubs converge to two, the Nordic with the Continental club and the Anglo-Saxon with the Southern club. The half life statistics show fast pace across all variables of interest