Appropriateness of clinical severity classification of new WHO childhood pneumonia guidance : a multi-hospital, retrospective, cohort study

Background: Management of pneumonia in many low-income and middle-income countries is based on WHO guidelines that classify children according to clinical signs that define thresholds of risk. We aimed to establish whether some children categorised as eligible for outpatient treatment might have a risk of death warranting their treatment in hospital. Methods: We did a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2–59 months admitted to one of 14 hospitals in Kenya with pneumonia between March 1, 2014, and Feb 29, 2016, before revised WHO pneumonia guidelines were adopted in the country. We modelled associations with inpatient mortality using logistic regression and calculated absolute risks of mortality for presenting clinical features among children who would, as part of revised WHO pneumonia guidelines, be eligible for outpatient treatment (non-severe pneumonia). Findings: We assessed 16 162 children who were admitted to hospital in this period. 832 (5%) of 16 031 children died. Among groups defined according to new WHO guidelines, 321 (3%) of 11 788 patients with non-severe pneumonia died compared with 488 (14%) of 3434 patients with severe pneumonia. Three characteristics were strongly associated with death of children retrospectively classified as having non-severe pneumonia: severe pallor (adjusted risk ratio 5·9, 95% CI 5·1–6·8), mild to moderate pallor (3·4, 3·0–3·8), and weight-for-age Z score (WAZ) less than −3 SD (3·8, 3·4–4·3). Additional factors that were independently associated with death were: WAZ less than −2 to −3 SD, age younger than 12 months, lower chest wall indrawing, respiratory rate of 70 breaths per min or more, female sex, admission to hospital in a malaria endemic region, moderate dehydration, and an axillary temperature of 39°C or more. Interpretation: In settings of high mortality, WAZ less than −3 SD or any degree of pallor among children with non-severe pneumonia was associated with a clinically important risk of death. Our data suggest that admission to hospital should not be denied to children with these signs and we urge clinicians to consider these risk factors in addition to WHO criteria in their decision making

Hypothermia amongst neonatal admissions in Kenya: a retrospective cohort study assessing prevalence, trends, associated factors, and its relationship with all-cause neonatal mortality

BackgroundReports on hypothermia from high-burden countries like Kenya amongst sick newborns often include few centers or relatively small sample sizes.ObjectivesThis study endeavored to describe: (i) the burden of hypothermia on admission across 21 newborn units in Kenya, (ii) any trend in prevalence of hypothermia over time, (iii) factors associated with hypothermia at admission, and (iv) hypothermia's association with inpatient neonatal mortality.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2020 to March 2023, focusing on small and sick newborns admitted in 21 NBUs. The primary and secondary outcome measures were the prevalence of hypothermia at admission and mortality during the index admission, respectively. An ordinal logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between selected factors and the outcomes cold stress (36.0°C–36.4°C) and hypothermia (<36.0°C). Factors associated with neonatal mortality, including hypothermia defined as body temperature below 36.0°C, were also explored using logistic regression.ResultsA total of 58,804 newborns from newborn units in 21 study hospitals were included in the analysis. Out of these, 47,999 (82%) had their admission temperature recorded and 8,391 (17.5%) had hypothermia. Hypothermia prevalence decreased over the study period while admission temperature documentation increased. Significant associations were found between low birthweight and very low (0–3) APGAR scores with hypothermia at admission. Odds of hypothermia reduced as ambient temperature and month of participation in the Clinical Information Network (a collaborative learning health platform for healthcare improvement) increased. Hypothermia at admission was associated with 35% (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.22, 1.50) increase in odds of neonatal inpatient death.ConclusionsA substantial proportion of newborns are admitted with hypothermia, indicating a breakdown in warm chain protocols after birth and intra-hospital transport that increases odds of mortality. Urgent implementation of rigorous warm chain protocols, particularly for low-birth-weight babies, is crucial to protect these vulnerable newborns from the detrimental effects of hypothermia

Childhood mortality during and after acute illness in Africa and south Asia: a prospective cohort study

Background: Mortality among children with acute illness in low-income and middle-income settings remains unacceptably high and the importance of post-discharge mortality is increasingly recognised. We aimed to explore the epidemiology of deaths among young children with acute illness across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to inform the development of interventions and improved guidelines. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children aged 2–23 months with acute illness, stratified by nutritional status defined by anthropometry (ie, no wasting, moderate wasting, or severe wasting or kwashiorkor), who were admitted to one of nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia between Nov 20, 2016, and Jan 31, 2019. We assisted sites to comply with national guidelines. Co-primary outcomes were mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and post-discharge mortality within 180 days of hospital discharge. A priori exposure domains, including demographic, clinical, and anthropometric characteristics at hospital admission and discharge, as well as child, caregiver, and household-level characteristics, were examined in regression and survival structural equation models. Findings: Of 3101 children (median age 11 months [IQR 7–16]), 1120 (36·1%) had no wasting, 763 (24·6%) had moderate wasting, and 1218 (39·3%) had severe wasting or kwashiorkor. Of 350 (11·3%) deaths overall, 234 (66·9%) occurred within 30 days of hospital admission and 168 (48·0%) within 180 days of hospital discharge. 90 (53·6%) post-discharge deaths occurred at home. The proportion of children who died following discharge was relatively preserved across nutritional strata. Numerically large high-risk and low-risk groups could be disaggregated for early mortality and post-discharge mortality. Structural equation models identified direct pathways to mortality and multiple socioeconomic, clinical, and nutritional domains acting indirectly through anthropometric status. Interpretation: Among diverse sites in Africa and south Asia, almost half of mortality occurs following hospital discharge. Despite being highly predictable, these deaths are not addressed in current guidelines. A fundamental shift to a child-centred, risk-based approach to inpatient and post-discharge management is needed to further reduce childhood mortality, and clinical trials of these approaches with outcomes of mortality, readmission, and cost are warranted. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Hospital readmission following acute illness among children 2–23 months old in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of CHAIN cohortResearch in context

Summary: Background: Children in low and middle-income countries remain vulnerable following hospital-discharge. We estimated the incidence and correlates of hospital readmission among young children admitted to nine hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of the CHAIN Network prospective cohort enrolled between 20th November 2016 and 31st January 2019. Children aged 2–23 months were eligible for enrolment, if admitted for an acute illness to one of the study hospitals. Exclusions were requiring immediate resuscitation, inability to tolerate oral feeds in their normal state of health, had suspected terminal illness, suspected chromosomal abnormality, trauma, admission for surgery, or their parent/caregiver was unwilling to participate and attend follow-up visits. Data from children discharged alive from the index admission were analysed for hospital readmission within 180-days from discharge. We examined ratios of readmission to post-discharge mortality rates. Using models with death as the competing event, we evaluated demographic, nutritional, clinical, and socioeconomic associations with readmission. Findings: Of 2874 children (1239 (43%) girls, median (IQR) age 10.8 (6.8–15.6) months), 655 readmission episodes occurred among 506 (18%) children (198 (39%) girls): 391 (14%) with one, and 115 (4%) with multiple readmissions, with a rate of: 41.0 (95% CI 38.0–44.3) readmissions/1000 child-months. Median time to readmission was 42 (IQR 15–93) days. 460/655 (70%) and 195/655 (30%) readmissions occurred at index study hospital and non-study hospitals respectively. One-third (N = 213/655, 33%) of readmissions occurred within 30 days of index discharge. Sites with fewest readmissions had the highest post-discharge mortality. Most readmissions to study hospitals (371/450, 81%) were for the same illness as the index admission. Age, prior hospitalisation, chronic conditions, illness severity, and maternal mental health score, but not sex, nutritional status, or physical access to healthcare, were associated with readmission. Interpretation: Readmissions may be appropriate and necessary to reduce post-discharge mortality in high mortality settings. Social and financial support, training on recognition of serious illness for caregivers, and improving discharge procedures, continuity of care and facilitation of readmission need to be tested in intervention studies. We propose the ratio of readmission to post-discharge mortality rates as a marker of overall post-discharge access and care. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1131320)

Childhood growth during recovery from acute illness in Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the childhood acute illness and nutrition (CHAIN) prospective cohortResearch in context

Summary: Background: Growth faltering is well-recognized during acute childhood illness and growth acceleration during convalescence, with or without nutritional therapy, may occur. However, there are limited recent data on growth after hospitalization in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We evaluated growth following hospitalization among children aged 2–23 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Between November 2016 and January 2019, children were recruited at hospital admission and classified as: not-wasted (NW), moderately-wasted (MW), severely-wasted (SW), or having nutritional oedema (NO). We describe earlier (discharge to 45-days) and later (45- to 180-days) changes in length-for-age [LAZ], weight-for-age [WAZ], mid-upper arm circumference [MUACZ], weight-for-length [WLZ] z-scores, and clinical, nutritional, and socioeconomic correlates. Findings: We included 2472 children who survived to 180-days post-discharge: NW, 960 (39%); MW, 572 (23%); SW, 682 (28%); and NO, 258 (10%). During 180-days, LAZ decreased in NW (−0.27 [−0.36, −0.19]) and MW (−0.23 [−0.34, −0.11]). However, all groups increased WAZ (NW, 0.21 [95% CI: 0.11, 0.32]; MW, 0.57 [0.44, 0.71]; SW, 1.0 [0.88, 1.1] and NO, 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]) with greatest gains in the first 45-days. Of children underweight (<−2 WAZ) at discharge, 66% remained underweight at 180-days. Lower WAZ post-discharge was associated with age-inappropriate nutrition, adverse caregiver characteristics, small size at birth, severe or moderate anaemia, and chronic conditions, while lower LAZ was additionally associated with household-level exposures but not with chronic medical conditions. Interpretation: Underweight and poor linear growth mostly persisted after an acute illness. Beyond short-term nutritional supplementation, improving linear growth post-discharge may require broader individual and family support. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1131320; National Institute for Health Research NIHR201813

Characterising paediatric mortality during and after acute illness in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the CHAIN cohort using a machine learning approach

Background: A better understanding of which children are likely to die during acute illness will help clinicians and policy makers target resources at the most vulnerable children. We used machine learning to characterise mortality in the 30-days following admission and the 180-days after discharge from nine hospitals in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: A cohort of 3101 children aged 2–24 months were recruited at admission to hospital for any acute illness in Bangladesh (Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals), Pakistan (Civil Hospital Karachi), Kenya (Kilifi, Mbagathi, and Migori Hospitals), Uganda (Mulago Hospital), Malawi (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital), and Burkina Faso (Banfora Hospital) from November 2016 to January 2019. To record mortality, children were observed during their hospitalisation and for 180 days post-discharge. Extreme gradient boosted models of death within 30 days of admission and mortality in the 180 days following discharge were built. Clusters of mortality sharing similar characteristics were identified from the models using Shapley additive values with spectral clustering. Findings: Anthropometric and laboratory parameters were the most influential predictors of both 30-day and post-discharge mortality. No WHO/IMCI syndromes were among the 25 most influential mortality predictors of mortality. For 30-day mortality, two lower-risk clusters (N = 1915, 61%) included children with higher-than-average anthropometry (1% died, 95% CI: 0–2), and children without signs of severe illness (3% died, 95% CI: 2–4%). The two highest risk 30-day mortality clusters (N = 118, 4%) were characterised by high urea and creatinine (70% died, 95% CI: 62–82%); and nutritional oedema with low platelets and reduced consciousness (97% died, 95% CI: 92–100%). For post-discharge mortality risk, two low-risk clusters (N = 1753, 61%) were defined by higher-than-average anthropometry (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%), and gastroenteritis with lower-than-average anthropometry and without major laboratory abnormalities (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%). Two highest risk post-discharge clusters (N = 267, 9%) included children leaving against medical advice (30% died, 95% CI: 25–37%), and severely-low anthropometry with signs of illness at discharge (46% died, 95% CI: 34–62%). Interpretation: WHO clinical syndromes are not sufficient at predicting risk. Integrating basic laboratory features such as urea, creatinine, red blood cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts into guidelines may strengthen efforts to identify high-risk children during paediatric hospitalisations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1131320

Neonatal mortality in Kenyan hospitals: a multisite, retrospective, cohort study

Background Most of the deaths among neonates in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) can be prevented through universal access to basic high-quality health services including essential facility-based inpatient care. However, poor routine data undermines data-informed efforts to monitor and promote improvements in the quality of newborn care across hospitals.Methods Continuously collected routine patients’ data from structured paper record forms for all admissions to newborn units (NBUs) from 16 purposively selected Kenyan public hospitals that are part of a clinical information network were analysed together with data from all paediatric admissions ages 0–13 years from 14 of these hospitals. Data are used to show the proportion of all admissions and deaths in the neonatal age group and examine morbidity and mortality patterns, stratified by birth weight, and their variation across hospitals.Findings During the 354 hospital months study period, 90 222 patients were admitted to the 14 hospitals contributing NBU and general paediatric ward data. 46% of all the admissions were neonates (aged 0–28 days), but they accounted for 66% of the deaths in the age group 0–13 years. 41 657 inborn neonates were admitted in the NBUs across the 16 hospitals during the study period. 4266/41 657 died giving a crude mortality rate of 10.2% (95% CI 9.97% to 10.55%), with 60% of these deaths occurring on the first-day of admission. Intrapartum-related complications was the single most common diagnosis among the neonates with birth weight of 2000 g or more who died. A threefold variation in mortality across hospitals was observed for birth weight categories 1000–1499 g and 1500–1999 g.Interpretation The high proportion of neonatal deaths in hospitals may reflect changing patterns of childhood mortality. Majority of newborns died of preventable causes (&gt;95%). Despite availability of high-impact low-cost interventions, hospitals have high and very variable mortality proportions after stratification by birth weight