PROGNOSIS OF MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION THROUGH METHODS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

In this paper we propose the prognosis of the unemployment rate in the European Union through the Box-Jenkins method and the TRAMO/SEATS method as well as the detection of the method which proves to provide the best results. The monthly unemployment rate in the European Union is affected by seasonal variations of deterministic and stochastic nature. The prognosis through the Box-Jenkins nature supposes the separate consideration of seasonal variations, according to their specific nature. The stochastic seasonal variations are modelled and prognosticated simultaneously with the other components of the time series, based on the generating stochastic process. The prognosis of the monthly unemployment rate in the European Union through the TRAMO/SEATS methods is done by aggregating the individual prognoses of the components of the time series, obtained according to the stochastic processes models that generate them.seasonal variations, stochastic process, moving average, prognosis, performance indicators of the prognosis

A STATISTICAL APPROACH OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF A PHENOMENON USING A RO-EU COMPOSITE INDEX

This study aims at presenting a new computation index, which simultaneously measures the time and space variation of the various economic indices. The elaboration method of the space-time index is based on a matrix construct, the time and space variation of the analyzed economic index being represented via a system of vectors in plane. The practical application of the compound index is exemplified by employing the data on the growth rate of the GDP/inhabitant, calculated for two spatial entities: Romania and the European Union, for the period 1999-2008. The obtained findings confirm the fact that the proposed space-time index is a good analysis tool for the measurement of the time and space variation related to the various economic indices, as well as for testing the economic convergence for discrete time moments.space-time index; convergence; economic shock.

Influence of ecological foliar fertilizers on yield and morphometric parameters in cultivated medicinal and aromatic plants (basil, marigold, artichoke)

The significance of cultivating aromatic and medicinal plants in ecological settings derives also from the fact that the usage of such species implies direct contact with humans, through consumption or otherwise. Enhanced knowledge of herbs and spices and their ecological cropping is required for a better exploitation of their outstanding properties and which are based on biologically active substances such as alkaloids, phenolic compounds or essential oils. This paper includes the results of the research conducted within UASVM Iasi, Faculty of Agronomy, focused on the influence of ecological foliar fertilizers (Fylo®, Geolino Plants&Flowers®, Cropmax®, Fitokondi®) on the yield and morphological indices on medicinal and aromatic plants: basil, marigold and artichoke. Our results showed positive effects of ecological foliar fertilizers on the investigated plant species, especially on the yield of fresh herbs

THE ANALYSIS OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALITY IN ROMANIA

This paper analyses one of the components of a time series, that is the seasonal component. The phenomenon studied in the paper is the unemployment in Romania during 1996-2005. The unemployment seasonality is measured by three indicators: low-peak seasonality, amplitude seasonality and mean seasonal variation. The seasonal factor is used, together with the extrapolation of the trend, to predict the unemployment level in Romania for the first quarter of 2009

Discriminant analysis in the study of romanian regional economic development

In this paper we propose using the discriminant analysis for the identification of a typology for the Romanian counties by the economic development level. In this purpose, we used a set of variables that characterize the economic and social development. The treatment of the data is done with the SPSS software. The results obtained in this paper can be used as arguments in making decisions regarding the harmonization of the Romanian regions and the allocation of the investments in appropriate counties and regions.European integration process, regional economic development, discriminant analysis

THE EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL PROFILE OF THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA

The main purpose of the paper is to identify the regional profile induced both by the existing resources and the level of development. The paper provides reliable information for regional development policies taking into consideration local resources. The research uses the multivariate statistical analysis of the macroeconomic statistical data after 1990. The results of the research pointed out the following conclusions: - local resources are used to a smaller extent at the regional level; - the correlation between resources and the level of economic development underlines the necessity of adopting a development policy that would better use the present resources.economic development, regional, profile, Romania, multivariate analysis

Panel data analysis applied in financial performance assessment

This paper aims to present the use of panel data analysis in order to assess the state and dynamics of financial performance of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange under the influence of determinant factors. Financial performance may be assessed by means of return on equity – ROE. Its main determinant factors suggested by literature are return on assets – ROA and own or financial leverage (FL). This paper provides a theoretical background and applied panel data analysis of two case studies that use fixed and random-effects models (investigating the influence of ROE of previous period on ROE for the current period). The selection of one of the two types of models is based on the results obtained by applying the Hausman test. The study includes Romanian companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) during 2006-2015 and uses balanced samples. The authors used SAS 9.2 for data processing

Paediatric COVID-19 mortality: a database analysis of the impact of health resource disparity

Background The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric populations varied between high-income countries (HICs) versus low-income to middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to investigate differences in paediatric clinical outcomes and identify factors contributing to disparity between countries.Methods The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 database was queried to include children under 19 years of age admitted to hospital from January 2020 to April 2021 with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Univariate and multivariable analysis of contributing factors for mortality were assessed by country group (HICs vs LMICs) as defined by the World Bank criteria.Results A total of 12 860 children (3819 from 21 HICs and 9041 from 15 LMICs) participated in this study. Of these, 8961 were laboratory-confirmed and 3899 suspected COVID-19 cases. About 52% of LMICs children were black, and more than 40% were infants and adolescent. Overall in-hospital mortality rate (95% CI) was 3.3% [=(3.0% to 3.6%), higher in LMICs than HICs (4.0% (3.6% to 4.4%) and 1.7% (1.3% to 2.1%), respectively). There were significant differences between country income groups in intervention profile, with higher use of antibiotics, antivirals, corticosteroids, prone positioning, high flow nasal cannula, non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation in HICs. Out of the 439 mechanically ventilated children, mortality occurred in 106 (24.1%) subjects, which was higher in LMICs than HICs (89 (43.6%) vs 17 (7.2%) respectively). Pre-existing infectious comorbidities (tuberculosis and HIV) and some complications (bacterial pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and myocarditis) were significantly higher in LMICs compared with HICs. On multivariable analysis, LMIC as country income group was associated with increased risk of mortality (adjusted HR 4.73 (3.16 to 7.10)).Conclusion Mortality and morbidities were higher in LMICs than HICs, and it may be attributable to differences in patient demographics, complications and access to supportive and treatment modalities