An incumbent country view on eastern enlargement of the EU Part II: The Austrian case

In part I of this paper, we have presented a general treatment of the welfare effect of an eastern EU enlargement on incumbent countries. Part II now takes a closer look at the Austrian case. We first present a few descriptive statistics on the role that east-west trade, as well as the pertinent trade barriers, play for the Austrian economy. We then argue that a numerical simulation, based on a suitably specified general equilibrium model, is an appropriate way towards a full evaluation of the welfare and distributional consequences of enlargement. Focusing on the Austrian case, we therefore implement an enriched and parameterized version of the general model used in part I of the paper. The model features savings and investment, based on intertemporal optimization, as well as sectoral allocation of capital and labor (skilled/unskilled), based on product differentiation and imperfect competition. In addition, the model incorporates a detailed representation of the government budget, featuring distortive taces and subsidies, as well as transfers to domestic households, and financial transactions with the EU. The model allows us to take a quantitative view on both the costs and integrations gains of en eastern enlargement. Relying on a Hicksian welfare measure which incorporates both long-run effects and short-run adjustment, our numerical simulations indicate that, in the Austrian case, the integration gains outweigh the fiscal burden.

An incumbent country view on eastern enlargement of the EU Part I: A general treatment

An eastern Enlargement of the EU, from an incumbent country point of view, involves a fiscal burden from extending Union agricultural and cohesion plicies to new members, coupled with potential gains as well as adjustment problems deriving from an extended customs union and a larger single market. Enlargement is controversial, because the net effect is unclear, a priori, and will certainly vary across individual countries. Our two- part contribution tries to do shed light on this controversy. In this first part, we present a general treatment of the likely effects on different incumbent countries, while a subsequent companion paper will take a closer look at the specific case of Austria. The general view of part I, in turn, first focuses on various empirical measures highlighting crucial differences between incumbents, pertaining to the fiscal burden on the one hand, and integration gains on the other. We then argue that a proper evaluation must rely on an explicit welfare criterion, and we use a general model of economic integration in order to identify the principal channels through which aggregate welfare of an incumbent country is affected by an enlargement of the EU. We address traditional effects of trade creation and trade diversion, as well as growth effects arising from an abolition of trade barriers. In addition, we ask how enlargement affects foreign direct investment and labor migration, and what this implies in welfare terms for an invumbent western European country. Taken together, these effects generate a certain presumption of integration gains, which need to be set against the fiscal burden. However, a final judgement requires a case- by-base approach, based on empirical implementations of enriched and parameterized models for specific countries. The companion paper, therefore, uses a suitably specified, calibrated dynamic equilibrium model, in order to take a closer look at the Austrian case.

Efimov states near a Feshbach resonance and the limits of van der Waals universality at finite background scattering length

We calculate the spectrum of three-body Efimov bound states near a Feshbach resonance within a model which accounts both for the finite range of interactions and the presence of background scattering. The latter may be due to direct interactions in an open channel or a second overlapping Feshbach resonance. It is found that background scattering gives rise to substantial changes in the trimer spectrum as a function of the detuning away from a Feshbach resonance, in particular in the regime where the background channel supports Efimov states on its own. Compared to the situation with negligible background scattering, the regime where van der Waals universality applies is shifted to larger values of the resonance strength if the background scattering length is positive. For negative background scattering lengths, in turn, van der Waals universality extends to even small values of the resonance strength parameter, consistent with experimental results on Efimov states in $^{39}$K. Within a simple model, we show that short-range three-body forces do not affect van der Waals universality significantly. Repulsive three-body forces may, however, explain the observed variation between around $-8$ and $-10$ of the ratio between the scattering length where the first Efimov trimer appears and the van der Waals length.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures; final version as publishe

Quantitative risk analysis for evaluation of avalanche protection projects

Questions on optimum protection measures have always been bound to economic considerations. This involves a comprehensive investigation and analysis of the effect of avalanche protection measures with an appropriate concept of risk, including the avalanche danger area and land use of the area. Technical and economic methods and analysis are applied in methodical procedures in order to arrive at an assessment model for avalanche protection projects. From the technical point of view, the application of general risk analysis methodology and its adaptation to specific circumstances related to avalanche hazards are in the foreground. The quantitative risk magnitudes are supplemented by the aspects of risk awareness, in particular of risk acceptance and risk aversion. The avalanche risk of specific protection projects in the sense of an expected annual value of damage is calculated as part of the total potential damage. The result of this risk analysis is shown in a quantitative risk - diagram with the outset risk without safety measures, the remaining risk and the risk reduction. By comparing the annual costs for measures and the expected risk reduction, it is possible to make comparisons between measures with a short-term and long-term effect. The targeted project selection for this paper takes the expected variability of the efficiency into account in order to be able to define the economical limits. It is also possible to deduce marginal costs which, in the past, were applied to prevent a statistical death occurrence

Eastern enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries

Eastern enlargement of the EU promises gains, but also imposes fiscal costs on incumbent countries. A sensitive issue concerns immigration, jobs and wages. We address these issues in a general equilibrium framework, both analytically and through numerical simulations. Analytical results identify capital accumulation as a prime transmission channel. Using a dynamic CGE model with search unemployment of high- and low-skilled labor, we simulate the effects of enlargement on Germany finding small e.ects from trade, but more pronounced labor market e.ects from migration. Based on German model elasticities, we approximate expected benefits and costs for other member countries as well.enlargement; economic integration; economic growth; capital accumulation; search unemployment; computable general equilibrium analysis

Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries

Eastern enlargement of the EU promises gains, but also imposes fiscal costs on incumbent countries. A sensitive issue concerns immigration, jobs and wages. We address these issues in a general equilibrium framework, both analytically and through numerical simulations. Analytical results identify capital accumulation as a prime transmission channel. Using a dynamic CGE model with search unemployment of high- and low-skilled labor, we simulate the effects of enlargement on Germany finding small effects from trade, but more pronounced labor market effects from migration. Based on German model elasticities, we approximate expected benefits and costs for other member countries as well.

Factors influencing day-to-day planning: protest – cooperation – indifference?

Current planning debates are characterised by the tension between political and societal goals on the one hand and questions of local implementation on the other. The general public and individual citizens are core elements of any planning process, with their level of involvement in day-to-day planning ranging from protests to cooperation to indifference. There are gaps in our knowledge about which factors affect planning stipulations in everyday practice. Using empirical data gathered in basic research on German municipalities of all sizes, this article develops an exploratory comparison of the planning challenges posed by the energy transition and the integration of major accident prevention in urban land-use planning. It identifies differences, the significance of internal and external influencing factors, and starting points to pave the way to better cooperation in daily planning activities