901 research outputs found
Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is
being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism.
We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's
polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed
sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will
be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.Comment: 10 pages 1 table 3 figure
The origin of grand minima in the sunspot cycle
One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there
have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known
example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of
cosmogenic isotopes (C14 and Be10) indicated that there were about 27 grand
minima in the last 11,000 yr, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had
conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the
question how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency
of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that
fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and the meridional
circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations
to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data
of last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that
about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing
grand minima.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter
Towards A Mean-Field Formulation Of The Babcock-Leighton Type Solar Dynamo. I. Alpha Coefficient Versus Durney's Double Ring Approach
We develop a model of the solar dynamo in which, on the one hand, we follow
the Babcock-Leighton approach to include surface processes like the production
of poloidal field from the decay of active regions, and, on the other hand, we
attempt to develop a mean field theory that can be studied in quantitative
detail. One of the main challenges in developing such models is to treat the
buoyant rise of toroidal field and the production of poloidal field from it
near the surface. We build up a dynamo model with two contrasting methods of
treating buoyancy. In one method, we incorporate the generation of the poloidal
field near the solar surface by Durney's procedure of double ring eruption. In
the second method, the poloidal field generation is treated by a positive
alpha-effect concentrated near the solar surface, coupled with an algorithm for
handling buoyancy. The two methods are found to give qualitatively similar
results.Comment: 32 pages, 27 figures, uses aastex.cls and epsfig.st
Fluctuations in the Alpha-Effect and Grand Solar Minima
Parameters of a special kind of \alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the
Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs.
The estimates evidence the presence of the Babcock-Leighton \alpha-effect on
the Sun. Fluctuations of the \alpha-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation
amplitude appreciably exceeds the mean value, and the characteristic time for
the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation.
Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numerical model for
the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the
magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated
statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the
data on solar activity over the Holocene.Comment: To appear in Astronomy Reports, 20 pages, 9 figure
Reply to comments of Dikpati et al
We present here our response to Dikpati et al.'s criticism of our recent
solar dynamo model.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure
Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only
from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier
times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar
field at a sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, although the
strength of the cycle is not correlated well with the polar field produced at
its end. This suggests that the Babcock Leighton mechanism of poloidal field
generation from decaying sunspots involves randomness, whereas the other
aspects of the dynamo process must be reasonably ordered and deterministic.
Only if the magnetic diffusivity within the convection zone is assumed to be
high, we can explain the correlation between the polar field at a minimum and
the next cycle. We give several independent arguments that the diffusivity must
be of this order. In a dynamo model with diffusivity like this, the poloidal
field generated at the mid latitudes is advected toward the poles by the
meridional circulation and simultaneously diffuses towards the tachocline,
where the toroidal field for the next cycle is produced. To model actual solar
cycles with a dynamo model having such high diffusivity, we have to feed the
observational data of the poloidal field at the minimum into the theoretical
model. We develop a method of doing this in a systematic way. Our model
predicts that cycle 24 will be a very weak cycle. Hemispheric asymmetry of
solar activity is also calculated with our model and compared with
observational data.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, submitted to MNRA
The Waldmeier Effect in Sunspot Cycles
We discuss two aspects of the Waldmeier Effect, namely (1) the rise times of
sunspot cycles are anti-correlated to their strengths (WE1) and (2) the rates
of rise of the cycles are correlated to their strengths (WE2). From analysis of
four different data sets we conclude that both WE1 and WE2 exist in all the
data sets. We study these effects theoretically by introducing suitable
stochastic fluctuations in our regular solar dynamo model.Comment: Magnetic Coupling between the Interior and Atmosphere of the Sun;
Astrophysics and Space Science Proceeding
- …