Economic Effects of a Potential Foodborne Disease: Potential Relationship between Mycobacterium Avium Subs. Paratuberculosis (MAP) in Dairy and Crohn’s in Humans

Welfare costs of a potential food shock were estimated by disseminating information to milk drinkers on the prevalence of Mycobacterium avium sub. paratuberculosis (MAP) in the U.S. milk supply, its potential linkage to Crohn’s disease in humans, and subsequent government intervention to minimize MAP in the milk supply. We found that 19.6% of milk consumers exposed to MAP information would stop milk consumption at current market prices, and that only 5% of those would return to their original milk consumption levels after the government intervention. Societal costs of the food shock after the intervention were estimated at $18.2 billion

Perception and Action in a Conflict Zone: a Study of Rural Economy and Rural Life amidst Narcos in Northeastern Mexico

This paper analyzes the effect of drug cartel violence on farmers in Northeastern Mexico. Using tools from the psychology literature on risk perceptions, dual process theory and behavioral economics, we investigate factors correlating with fear among farmers, and how that fear is affecting rural life and production decisions. Farmers' actions in response to risk can be explained under the dual process approach, and the degree of emotional and deliberative response for each action is estimated. We find evidence that drug related violence in Mexico is affecting rural life and production decisions of small holder farmers

Anticipatory Signals of Changes in Corn Demand

Contemporaneous observations on expected supply and on prices of post-harvest futures contracts for corn are used to estimate expected demand relationships. These equations are used to forecast the prices of the post-harvest contracts based on new supply estimates. Each forecast can be compared with a corresponding futures price, i.e., the market’s forecast. The differences help discern the market’s expectations about the expected demand for the new crop relative to historical experience, which can help support outlook analyses. The discussion also deepens understanding of the term “anticipatory prices,” as used by H. Working (1958)

Socially-Responsible Certification Schemes for Smallholder Coffee Farmers: Economics of Giving and Consumer Utility

We study consumer preferences for socially-responsible certified coffee based on alternative ways to distribute the price premium of the product. We use Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak (BDM) auctions in an experimental setting to elicit consumer willingness to pay for two socially-responsible certified coffee systems: the existing Fair Trade and a hypothetical certification called Sustainable Trade. These certification schemes differ in the way the price premium is given to producers. In the Fair Trade certifications growers receive a cash transfer whereas in the Sustainable Trade certification a portion of the premium is allocated to a social project in the grower’s community. We segment consumers as donors and non-donors and show that individuals who donate have strong preferences for certification systems that support social projects relative no non-donors. We also find that consumer attitudes toward donating have a strong effect on their willingness to pay for certified coffee. This effect is higher for consumers that donate a higher part of their income to charities