Liquidity Shocks, Systemic Risk, and Market Collapse: Theory and Application to the Market for Perps

Traditional explanations of market crashes rely on the collapse of an asset price bubble or the exacerbation of an information asymmetry sufficient to cause less-informed participants to withdraw from the market. We show that markets can crash even though asset prices have not deviated from fundamental values and information is shared symmetrically among all market participants. We present a model in which markets crash when investors shift their beliefs about the liquidity of the secondary market. While such shifts in liquidity may be a factor in explaining many market crashes, the collapse of the market for perpetual floating-rate notes (perps) provides an especially clear illustration of the theory because a shift in liquidity beliefs appears to have been the sole determinant of the market crash. Such a shift can be precipitated by a systemic liquidity shock that is transitory or permanent. The latter proved to be the case with perps because perceptions of the liquidity of the secondary market were permanently altered. In addition to providing new insights into why markets crash, our findings are particularly relevant for unseasoned financial products that are often priced and marketed on the assumption that liquid secondary markets will develop. The perp episode also highlights the importance of broad placement of securities. Since market liquidity arises endogenously from the diversity of liquidity needs across the investor base, the broader the investor base, the lower the probability of a systemic liquidity shock. We also show how simple modifications in security design can mitigate the impact of such a shock should it occur.

Offer Price, Target Ownership Structure and IPO Performance

Although the choice of an IPO offer price level would seem to have little economic significance, firms do not decide this arbitrarily. Our findings suggest that firms select their IPO offer prices to target a desired ownership structure, which in turn has implications for underpricing and post-IPO performance. Higher priced IPOs are marketed by more reputed underwriters and attract a relatively larger institutional investment. These IPOs are relatively more underpriced, possibly as compensation for the monitoring and information benefits provided by institutional investors. IPOs whose offer prices are below the median level seem to be targeted towards a retail investor clientele. These IPOs are also relatively more underpriced, possibly as a cost of adverse selection. Our finding that long-run performance increases with offer price confirms that higher priced IPOs are better firms.Initial public offerings; share prices; share allocation

Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Risk Management

We show that managerial overconfidence, which has been found to influence a number of corporate financial decisions, also affects corporate risk management. We find that managers increase their speculative activities using derivatives following speculative gains, while they do not reduce their speculative activities following speculative losses. This asymmetric response follows from selective selfattribution: successes tend to be attributed to one’s own skill, while failures tend to be attributed to bad luck. Thus, our results show that managerial behavioral biases can also impact corporate risk management.corporate risk management, behavioral biases, managerial overconfidence, speculation

Credit Enhancement through Financial Engineering: Freeport-McMoRan's Gold-Denominated Depository Shares

In 1993 and early 1994, Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX), a mining company, issued two series of gold-denominated depositary shares to raise 430 million dollars expanding their mining capacity in Indonesia. We price the depositary shares using a term structure model for the forward rates implied by gold futures and we show that FCX successfully enhanced the credit quality of the issue. This credit enhancement is achieved because the effect of linking the payoff of the depositary shares to gold reduces default risk and is similar to conventional risk management. However, the bundling of financing and risk management allows the firm to target hedging benefits only to the newly issued securities. The design of the security also overcomes the asset substitution problem. The depositary shares issued by FCX illustrate how firms can enhance credit quality through financial engineering without changing the existing priority ordering of their capital structure.Risk management, Gold-linked, Hybrid Securities

Is Share Price Related to Marketability? Evidence from Mutual Fund Share Splits

We examine the "marketability hypothesis," which states that stock splits enhance the attractiveness of shares to investors by restoring prices to a preferred trading range. We examine splits of mutual fund shares because they provide a clean testing ground for the marketability hypothesis, since the conventional rationales for common stock splits do not apply. We find that splitting funds experience significant increases (relative to non-splitting matched funds) in net assets and shareholders. Stock splits do appear to enhance marketability.

Why Do Firms Engage in Selective Hedging?

Surveys of corporate risk management document that selective hedging, where managers incorporate their market views into firms’ hedging programs, is widespread in the U.S. and other countries. Stulz (1996) argues that selective hedging could enhance the value of firms that possess an information advantage relative to the market and have the financial strength to withstand the additional risk from market timing. We study the practice of selective hedging in a 10-year sample of North American gold mining firms and find that selective hedging is most prevalent among firms that are least likely to meet these valuemaximizing criteria -- (a) smaller firms, i.e., firms that are least likely to have private information about future gold prices; and (b) firms that are closest to financial distress. The latter finding provides support for the alternative possibility suggested by Stulz that selective hedging may also be driven by asset substitution motives. We detect weak relationships between selective hedging and some corporate governance measures, especially board size, but find no evidence of a link between selective hedging and managerial compensation.Corporate risk management, selective hedging, speculation, financial distress, corporate governance, managerial compensation

Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Risk Management

We show that managerial overconfidence, which has been found to influence a number of corporate financial decisions, also affects corporate risk management. We find that managers increase their speculative activities using derivatives following speculative gains, while they do not reduce their speculative activities following speculative losses. This asymmetric response follows from selective selfattribution: successes tend to be attributed to one’s own skill, while failures tend to be attributed to bad luck. Thus, our results show that managerial behavioral biases can also impact corporate risk management

Common Liquidity Shocks and Market Collapse: Lessons From the Market for Perps

We show how a high degree of commonality in investor liquidity shocks can diminish incentives for intermediaries to keep markets open and lead to market collapse, even without information asymmetry or news affecting fundamentals. We motivate our model using the perpetual floating-rate note market where two years of explosive growth – in which issues by high quality borrowers were placed with institutional investors and traded in a liquid secondary market – were followed by a precipitous collapse when market intermediaries withdrew due to large order imbalances. We shed new light on the trade-off between ownership concentration and market liquidity

Credit Enhancement Through Targeted Risk Managment: Freeport-McMoRan's Gold-Dominated Depository Shares

In 1993 and early 1994, Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX), a mining company, issued two series of gold-denominated depositary shares to raise 430 million dollars for expansion of their mining capacity in Indonesia. We price the depositary shares using a term structure model for the forward rates implied by gold futures and we show that FCX successfully enhanced the credit quality of the issue. This credit enhancement is achieved because the effect of linking the payoff of the depositary shares to gold reduces default risk and is similar to conventional risk management. The building of financing and risk management, however, allows the firm to target hedging benefits only to the newly issued securities. The design of the security overcomes the asset substitution problem and credibly commits the firm to hedging. The depositary shares issued by FCX illustrate how firms can enhance credit quality through financial engineering without changing the existing priority ordering of their capital structure