Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

INTRODUCTION: Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. METHODS: We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. RESULTS: A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality

In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

Objectives We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors. Methods We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors. Results Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32). Conclusion Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications

Background The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines. Methods Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set. Results Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males. Conclusions This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly

Failure of standard antimicrobial therapy in children aged 3-59 months with mild or asymptomatic HIV infection and severe pneumonia

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether children aged 3-59 months with mild or non-symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and WHO-defined severe pneumonia have a higher failure rate than do HIV-uninfected children when treated with the standard WHO treatment of parenteral penicillin or oral amoxicillin. METHODS: This study was a planned sub-analysis of a randomized trial of 3-59-month-old children presenting with WHO-defined severe pneumonia (the APPIS study). We included two sites with high HIV prevalence in Durban, South Africa and Ndola, Zambia. Primary outcome measures were clinical treatment failure at day 2 and day 14. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: CT00227331http://www.clinicaltrialsgov/show/NCT00227331). FINDINGS: Of the 523 children enrolled, HIV status was known for 464 participants; 106 (23%) of these were infected with HIV. By day 2, 57 (12.3%) children had failed treatment and 110 (23.7%) failed by day 14. Twenty (18.9%) HIV-infected children failed by day 2 compared with 37 (10.3%) uninfected children (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-4.00). Thirty-four (32.1%) HIV-infected children failed treatment by day 14 compared with 76 (21.2%) uninfected children (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI: 1.11-3.17). Analysis stratified by age showed that the greatest differential in treatment failure at day 2 and day 14 occurred in the children aged 3-5 months. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected children with severe pneumonia fail WHO-standard treatment with parenteral penicillin or amoxicillin at day 2 and day 14 more often than do HIV-uninfected children, especially young infants. Standard case management of acute respiratory infection (ARI) using WHO treatment guidelines is inadequate in areas of high HIV prevalence and reappraisal of empiric antimicrobial therapy is urgently needed for severe pneumonia associated with HIV-1

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction: Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.Methods: We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.Results: A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).Conclusions: The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality

In-Hospital Mortality Risk Stratification in Children Under 5 Years Old with Pneumonia with or without Pulse Oximetry: A Secondary Analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) Dataset

ObjectivesWe determined pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality-risk stratification and chest indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.MethodsWe report characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children 2-59-months-old included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.ResultsAmong 285,839 children, 164,244 (57·5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5·8%, 95% CI 5·6-5·9% vs 2·1%, 95% CI 1·9-2·4%). One in five children with chest indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19·7%, 95% CI 19·0-20·4%) and the hypoxemic CFR was 10·3% (95% CI 9·1%-11·5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months (aOR 9·94, 95% CI 6·67-14·84) or 6-11 months (aOR 2·67, 95% CI 1·71-4·16)), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2·41, 95% CI 1·87-3·09), and female sex (aOR 1·82, 95% CI 1·43-2·32).ConclusionsChildren with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in ten died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in under-five pneumonia hospital care

In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

Objectives: We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors. Methods: We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors. Results: Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32). Conclusion: Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years