Planning Rural Water Services in Nicaragua: A Systems-Based Analysis of Impact Factors Using Graphical Modeling

The success or failure of rural water services in the developing world is a result of numerous factors that interact in a complex set of connections that are difficult to separate and identify. This research effort presented a novel means to empirically reveal the systemic interactions of factors that influence rural water service sustainability in the municipalities of Darío and Terrabona, Nicaragua. To accomplish this, the study employed graphical modeling to build and analyze factor networks. Influential factors were first identified by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing transcribed interviews from community water committee members. Factor influences were then inferred by graphical modeling to create factor network diagrams that revealed the direct and indirect interaction of factors. Finally, network analysis measures were used to identify “impact factors” based on their relative influence within each factor network. Findings from this study elucidated the systematic nature of such factor interactions in both Darío and Terrabona, and highlighted key areas for programmatic impact on water service sustainability for both municipalities. Specifically, in Darío, the impact areas related to the current importance of water service management by community water committees, while in Terrabona, the impact areas related to the current importance of finances, viable water sources, and community capacity building by external support. Overall, this study presents a rigorous and useful means to identify impact factors as a way to facilitate the thoughtful planning and evaluation of sustainable rural water services in Nicaragua and beyond

Adaptation advantage to climate change impacts on road infrastructure in Africa through 2100

The African continent is facing the potential of a US$183.6 billion liability to repair and maintain roads damaged from temperature and precipitation changes related to climate change through 2100. As detailed, the central part of the continent faces the greatest impact from climate change with countries facing an average cost of US$22 million annually, if they adopt a proactive adaptation policy and a US$54 million annual average, if a reactive approach is adopted. Additionally, countries face an average loss of opportunity to expand road networks from a low of 22 per cent to a high of 235 per cent in the central region

Adaptation Advantage to Climate Change Impacts on Road Infrastructure in Africa through 2100

The African continent is facing the potential of a US$183.6 billion liability to repair and maintain roads damaged from temperature and precipitation changes related to climate change through 2100. As detailed, the central part of the continent faces the greatest impact from climate change with countries facing an average cost of US$22 million annually, if they adopt a proactive adaptation policy and a US$54 million annual average, if a reactive approach is adopted. Additionally, countries face an average loss of opportunity to expand road networks from a low of 22 per cent to a high of 235 per cent in the central region.infrastructure, climate change, roads, cost estimates

Infrastructure and climate change: Impacts and adaptations for the Zambezi River Valley

The African Development Bank has called for US$40 billion per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, the effect of climate change on the road infrastructure of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, all located within the Zambezi River Basin. The study incorporates a stressor-response approach to estimate the effects of projected precipitation, temperature, and flooding changes on the paved and unpaved road infrastructure of these countries. The paper highlights the result of running 425 climate scenarios for each road type and policy option from 2010-2050. Based on a resulting database of over 1.4 million data points, the three southern African countries are facing a potential US$596 million price tag based on median climate scenarios to maintain and repair roads as a result of damages directly related to temperature and precipitation changes from potential climate change through 2050

Infrastructure and climate change: a study of impacts and adaptations in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

The African Development Bank has called for $40 Billion USD per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, the effect of climate change on the road infrastructure of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. The study incorporates a stressor-response approach to estimate the effects of projected precipitation, temperature, and flooding changes on the paved and unpaved road infrastructure of these countries. The paper highlights the result of running 425 climate scenarios for each road type and policy option from 2010 to 2050. Based on this broad analysis, it is estimated that the three southern African countries are facing a potential$596 million price tag based on median climate scenarios to maintain and repair roads as a result of damages directly related to temperature and precipitation changes from potential climate change through 2050. The challenge for policy makers is to determine the potential risk that a country is facing based on the uncertainties associated with the multiple aspects of climate change modeling. This article is part of a Special Issue on “Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley” edited by Finn Tarp, James Juana, and Philip Ward

Cost and impact analysis of sea level rise on coastal Vietnam

The Development under Climate Change research effort provides a basis for determining quantitative impacts on infrastructure from climate change. This paper provides results of an analysis of sea level rise impacts on road infrastructure in Vietnam. The study utilizes a quantitative approach for determining these impacts through engineering-based models that estimate the impact of sea level rises on road infrastructure. Through this approach, the cost impact of sea level rises on the coastal regions of Vietnam are presented

Infrastructure and climate change: Impacts and adaptations for South Africa

This paper presents the results of the current study on the impact of climate change on the road and building infrastructure within South Africa. The approach builds upon previous work associated with the UNU-WIDER Development under Climate Change effort emphasizing the impact of climate change on roads. The paper illustrates how climate change effects on both road and building structures can be evaluated with the application of a new analysis system - the infrastructure planning support system. The results of the study indicate that the national level climate change cost impact in South Africa will vary between US$141.0 million average annual costs in the median climate scenario under an adaptation policy, and US$210.0 million average annual costs under a no adaptation scenario. Similarly, the costs will vary between US$457.0 million average annual costs in the maximum climate scenario under an adaptation policy scenario, and US$522.0 million average annual costs under a no adaptation scenario. The paper presents these costs at a provincial impact level through the potential impacts of 54 climate scenarios. Decadal costs are detailed through 2100

Road infrastructure and climate change in Vietnam

Climate change is a potential threat to Vietnam's development as current and future infrastructure will be vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating the potential impact of changes from stressors, including: sea level rise, precipitation, temperature and flooding. Across 56 climate scenarios, the mean additional cost of maintaining the same road network through 2050 amount to US$10.5 billion. The potential scale of these impacts establishes climate change adaptation as an important component of planning and policy in the current and near future

Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges

We assessed the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) were used to capture a range of potential changes in climate. Using changes in maximum daily precipitation, we estimated changes to the peak flow rates for the 100-year return period for 2,097 watersheds. These estimates were then combined with information from the National Bridge Inventory database to estimate changes to bridge scour vulnerability. The results indicate that there may be significant potential risks to bridges in the United States from increased precipitation intensities. Approximately 129,000 bridges were found to be currently deficient. Tens of thousands to more than 100,000 bridges could be vulnerable to increased river flows. Results by region vary considerably. In general, more bridges in eastern areas are vulnerable than those in western areas. The highest GHG emissions scenarios result in the largest number of bridges being at risk. The costs of adapting vulnerable bridges to avoid increased damage associated with climate change vary from approximately $140 to$250 billion through the 21st century. If these costs were spread out evenly over the century, the annual costs would be several billion dollars. The costs of protecting the bridges against climate change risks could be reduced by approximately 30% if existing deficient bridges are improved with riprap.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Atmospheric Programs (Contract #EP-W-07-072

Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory - Preliminary Design Report

The DUSEL Project has produced the Preliminary Design of the Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at the rehabilitated former Homestake mine in South Dakota. The Facility design calls for, on the surface, two new buildings - one a visitor and education center, the other an experiment assembly hall - and multiple repurposed existing buildings. To support underground research activities, the design includes two laboratory modules and additional spaces at a level 4,850 feet underground for physics, biology, engineering, and Earth science experiments. On the same level, the design includes a Department of Energy-shepherded Large Cavity supporting the Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment. At the 7,400-feet level, the design incorporates one laboratory module and additional spaces for physics and Earth science efforts. With input from some 25 science and engineering collaborations, the Project has designed critical experimental space and infrastructure needs, including space for a suite of multidisciplinary experiments in a laboratory whose projected life span is at least 30 years. From these experiments, a critical suite of experiments is outlined, whose construction will be funded along with the facility. The Facility design permits expansion and evolution, as may be driven by future science requirements, and enables participation by other agencies. The design leverages South Dakota's substantial investment in facility infrastructure, risk retirement, and operation of its Sanford Laboratory at Homestake. The Project is planning education and outreach programs, and has initiated efforts to establish regional partnerships with underserved populations - regional American Indian and rural populations