Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in regions with low strain rates and a thick seismogenic layer: a case study from Malawi

Historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in low strain rate regions are not necessarily indicative of the long-term spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity. This implies that probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) should also consider geologic and geodetic data through fault-based seismogenic sources. However, it is not always clear how on-fault magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) should be described and, if the seismogenic layer is especially thick, how fault sources should be extrapolated down-dip. We explore these issues in the context of a new PSHA for Malawi, where regional extensional rates are 0.5–2 mm yr−1, the seismogenic layer is 30–40-km thick, the instrumental catalog is ∼60 yr long and fault-based sources were recently collated in the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model. Furthermore, Malawi is one of several countries along the East African Rift where exposure to seismic hazard is growing, but PSHA does not typically consider fault sources. We use stochastic event catalogs to explore different fault source down-dip extents and MFDs. Our PSHA indicates that hazard levels are highest for a Gutenberg–Richter on-fault MFD, even at low probabilities of exceedance (2 per cent in 50 yr), whilst seismic hazard levels are also sensitive to how relatively short (<50 km) fault sources are extrapolated down-dip. For sites close to fault sources (<40 km), seismic hazard levels are doubled compared to previous instrumental-seismicity based PSHA in Malawi. Cumulatively, these results highlight the need for careful fault source modelling in PSHA of low strain rate regions and the need for new fault-based PSHA elsewhere in the East Africa Rift

Acquisition of a Unique Onshore/Offshore Geophysical and Geochemical Dataset in the Northern Malawi (Nyasa) Rift

The Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania (SEGMeNT) project acquired a comprehensive suite of geophysical and geochemical datasets across the northern Malawi (Nyasa) rift in the East Africa rift system. Onshore/offshore active and passive seismic data, long‐period and wideband magnetotelluric data, continuous Global Positioning System data, and geochemical samples were acquired between 2012 and 2016. This combination of data is intended to elucidate the sedimentary, crustal, and upper‐mantle architecture of the rift, patterns of active deformation, and the origin and age of rift‐related magmatism. A unique component of our program was the acquisition of seismic data in Lake Malawi, including seismic reflection, onshore/offshore wide‐angle seismic reflection/refraction, and broadband seismic data from lake‐bottom seismometers, a towed streamer, and a large towed air‐gun source

Development of the Nyika Plateau, Malawi: A Long Lived Paleo‐Surface or a Contemporary Feature of the East African Rift?

Abstract Northern Malawi's Nyika Plateau is a 3,700 km2 large, highly elevated (∼2,500 m) plateau located at the western margin of the Miocene‐Recent Malawi rift and the confluence of multiple Proterozoic orogenic belts. Neighboring asthenospheric upwelling in the Rungwe Volcanic Province, associated with the active East African Rift, has created similar topographic highs, leading some to speculate that the formation of Nyika could be related. Here, we present new low‐temperature data using apatite fission track, apatite (U‐Th‐Sm)/He and zircon (U‐Th)/He thermochronology to constrain the upper crustal thermal history of the Nyika region since the Devonian. The data suggest that Nyika was an isolated feature since at least the Permo‐Triassic, well before more recent rifting in Malawi, and may have developed as a horst between two large Karoo grabens, the Henga‐Ruhuhu and the North Rukuru to the southeast and northwest, respectively. Similarities between the thermal histories of Nyika and the currently separated Livingstone Plateau to the east allow for the possibility that these may have been connected in a contiguous highland prior to the formation of the intervening Neogene Malawi rift. Thermal history models for exposed Precambrian basement samples adjacent to Nyika, and once buried beneath the neighboring Karoo basins, indicate that up to 3.4 km of Permo‐Triassic section has since been eroded, with samples along the plateau not indicating burial of Karoo‐type sediment at this time. Most recent cooling histories suggest that the plateau surface continued to denude at varying degrees from the Cretaceous and reached near‐surface temperatures in the Late Paleogene‐Neogene

Thermochemical Modification of the Upper Mantle Beneath the Northern Malawi Rift Constrained From Shear Velocity Imaging

Abstract To investigate the controls on continental rifting in the western branch of the East Africa Rift System, we conduct shear velocity imaging of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the weakly extended Malawi Rift and the Rungwe Volcanic Province (RVP). We use local‐scale measurements of Rayleigh wave phase velocities between 9‐ and 100‐s periods combined with constraints on basin architecture and crustal thickness to invert for shear velocity from the surface to ~135 km. Our resulting 3‐D model reveals a localized low‐velocity anomaly associated with the RVP extending from the crust and through the upper mantle, which can be explained with modestly elevated temperatures. Away from the RVP, velocities within mantle flanking the rift are fast (>4.6 ± 0.1 km/s), suggesting depleted lithospheric mantle to depths of ~100 and >135 km to the west and east of the rift, respectively. The upper mantle beneath the rift axis is characterized by thinned lithosphere with slower velocities than the surrounding plateau, suggestive of thermal and/or chemical modification by the rifting process. Slowest velocities are mildly asymmetric about the rift axis, with the lowest velocities observed beneath the rift and adjacent footwall escarpments. The underlying asthenosphere is only moderately slow (~4.25 ± 0.1 km/s), including beneath the RVP, precluding the presence of significant volumes of partial melt. The positions of localized lithospheric modification and basin‐bounding border faults correlate with the location of Proterozoic mobile belts, suggesting that these sutures provide lithospheric‐scale weakening mechanisms necessary for localizing strain and allowing extension to occur in the Malawi Rift

Seismic Evidence for Plume‐ and Craton‐Influenced Upper Mantle Structure Beneath the Northern Malawi Rift and the Rungwe Volcanic Province, East Africa

Abstract P and S wave tomographic models have been developed for the northern Malawi rift and adjacent Rungwe Volcanic Province (RVP) using data from the Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania project and data from previous networks in the study area. The main features of the models are a low‐velocity zone (LVZ) with δVp = ~−1.5–2.0% and δVs = ~−2–3% centered beneath the RVP, a lower‐amplitude LVZ (δVp = ~−1.0–1.3% and δVs = ~−0.7–1%) to the southeast of the RVP beneath the center and northeastern side of the northern Malawi rift, a shift of the lower‐amplitude anomaly at ~−10° to −11° to the west beneath the central basin and to the western side of the rift, and a fast anomaly at all depths beneath the Bangweulu Craton. The LVZ widens further at depths >~150–200 km and extends to the north beneath northwestern Malawi, wrapping around the fast anomaly beneath the craton. We attribute the LVZ beneath the RVP and the northern Malawi rift to the flow of warm, superplume mantle from the southwest, upwelling beneath and around the Bangweulu Craton lithosphere, consistent with high 3He/4He values from the RVP. The LVZ under the RVP and northern Malawi rift strongly indicates that the rifted lithosphere has been thermally perturbed. Given that volcanism in the RVP began about 10 million years earlier than the rift faulting, thermal and/or magmatic weakening of the lithosphere may have begun prior to the onset of rifting