Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.The research has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation grant (Project No. 14-18-00574 “Information and analytic systems “Anticrisis”: diagnostics of the regions, threat evaluation and scenario forecasting to preserve and reinforce the welfare of Russia”)

Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population

Возможности науки в инновационном развитии: «измерение технологий»

The purpose of the study is to identify the main conditions that ensure the influence of science on innovation, especially in terms of technological innovation. Comparative and structural analysis, application of measurement procedures, and evaluation of empirical data constitute the methodology of the study. The results of the study can be reduced to a number of provisions confirmed by analysis. Firstly, in Russia, in the course of permanent reorganizations, the institutional, informational, funding, and even personnel potential (due to a reduction in the number of researchers) was greatly weakened. Thus, the impact of scientific knowledge on the innovation process was clearly reduced, although the thesis that innovations are always results of scientific activities is difficult to dispute. Secondly, we should not talk about it as a direct relationship, but through the time lags. It is they who become a stumbling block in the conducting and planning current scientific and technological policy. Thirdly, the author has showed the main problems of technological innovation in Russia, identified in the course of many years of author’s research, supporting the important conclusion about the lack of an accurate representation and measurement of the level of technological effectiveness of the economy. The author has also proposed to solve this problem by detailing and improving accounting and statistical procedures in the field of technology, e. g., by means of technological maps, as well as by introducing an indicator as technology coverage of relevant objects (enterprises, regions, etc.). The current piece measurement of technologies does not consider coverage. Such an omission causes a significant distortion in the assessment of the technological level, as well as in further studies of the relationship between basic science, R&D, and technological development.Целью статьи выступает выявление основных условий, обеспечивающих влияние науки как сферы деятельности на инновации, особенно в разрезе технологических инноваций. Методологию составляет сравнительный и структурный анализ, применение измерительных процедур, оценка эмпирических данных. Общий результат исследования сводится к ряду подтверждённых анализом положений. Во-первых, в России в ходе перманентных реорганизаций сильно был ослаблен институциональный, информационный, фондовый и даже кадровый потенциал (за счёт сокращения числа исследователей), следовательно, явно понижено влияние научного знания на инновационный процесс, хотя тезис, что инновации всегда являются так или иначе результатами научной деятельности, трудно оспорить. Во-вторых, речь следует вести не о прямой такой связи, а через лаги по времени. Именно они становятся камнем преткновения в проведении и планировании текущей научно-технической политики. В-третьих, показаны основные проблемы технологических инноваций для России, выявленные в ходе многолетних исследований авторами, подтверждающие важный вывод об отсутствии точного представления и измерения уровня технологичности экономики. Предлагается решать данную проблему за счёт детализации и совершенствования учётно-статистических процедур в области технологий, например, посредством технологических карт, а также вводом такого показателя как охват технологией соответствующих объектов (предприятий, регионов и т. д.). Существующий штучный учёт технологий избегает оценки охвата, что вносит существенное искажение в оценку технологического уровня, и в дальнейшие исследования взаимосвязи фундаментальной науки, НИОКР и технологического развития

Consequences of Raising The Retirement Age for the Labor Market in the Regions of Russia

The article presents the results of a study aimed at assessing the consequences for the labor market of raising the retirement age in Russia. The foreign experience of raising the retirement age, on the basis of which a number of characteristic moments of this process are highlighted, is presented. The review of the scientific literature showed a polemical character of the problem under investigation and allowed to formulate a hypothesis of the study, which is as follows: raising the retirement age will lead to an increase in the supply of labor, which will entail the reduction of the labor price. The article presents an analysis of the current situation in the labor market. Since the raise of the retirement age will require the availability of vacant jobs in an amount not less than the number of people detained in the labor market, two tasks have been solved in this study. In the first task, the change in the average wage was calculated, provided that the number of jobs will meet the increased need, i.e. unemployment will remain at the same level. In the second task, the number of jobs is fixed to estimate the potential effect of raising the retirement age. Evaluation of the effect of raising the retirement age with a fixed number of jobs was carried out by constructing a regression relationship between wages and unemployment, differences in age groups were taken into account by introducing fictitious shift and tilt variables into the model. According to the calculations obtained under the first and second tasks, wages will decrease with the raising of the retirement age by one year for both sexes. The results of the study showed that the decision to raise the retirement age should be accompanied by a number of serious additional measures, primarily in the employment of population sector. © 2019, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research. All rights reserved.Russian Science Foundation, RSF: 14-18-00574The research is conducted with the support of the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 14-18-00574 "Anti-Crisis Information and Analysis System: Diagnostics of Regions, Threat Assessment, and Scenario Forecasting in Order to Preserve and Enhance Economic Security and Improve Welfare of Russia, an information-analytical system.

Estimating the Multiplier Effect of Investment Projects of the Far Eastern Federal District on Regional Socio-Economic Development

Дальневосточный федеральный округ в настоящее время является площадкой для реализации порядка двух тысяч инвестиционных проектов, которые в общем объеме уже профинансированы на сумму около 700 млрд руб. Среди уже полученных эффектов от реализации данных проектов можно отметить ввод в эксплуатацию порядка 270 предприятий и создание свыше 40 тыс. рабочих мест. Целью работы являются разработка и апробация инструментария оценки мультипликативного влияния инвестиционных проектов на динамику индикаторов регионального развития. Метод исследования - интегральный анализ, который позволяет агрегировать в одну синтетическую величину весь перечень разноразмерных характеристик отобранных проектов. Составлен обобщенный рейтинг инвестиционных проектов по оценке их совокупного вклада в региональное развитие. ТОП-3 рейтинга составили: строительство горно-обогатительного комплекса Инаглинский (1-е место в рейтинге за счет наибольшего экономического эффекта, оцененного ожидаемым приращением ВРП в объеме 252 млрд руб.), космодром «Восточный» (2-е место в рейтинге за счет ожидаемого создания новых 4000 рабочих мест), строительство Сахалинской ГРЭС-2 (3-е место в рейтинге за счет коммерческого эффекта, оцененного ожидаемым притоком частных инвестиций в объеме 432 млрд руб.). Детальное исследование позиций инвестиционных проектов ДФО в пространстве координат «региональная эффективность - социально-экономическое развитие региона» позволило дать количественную оценку мультипликативного вклада проектов в уровень развития экономики и социальной сферы территорий их реализации. Проведено ранжирование инвестиционных проектов ДФО, определено, что наиболее крупные проекты, имеющие в прогнозной перспективе высокие количественные результаты, разнонаправленно влияют на социально-экономические показатели регионов присутствия. Область применения результатов исследования заключается в разработке мер государственной и региональной поддержки крупных инвестиционных проектов, в том числе поиске и привлечении дополнительных источников финансирования, формировании системы мероприятий для обеспечения необходимого инвестиционного климата в регионе и создания требуемой инфраструктуры.Approximately two thousand investment projects, which have already been financed at a cost of about 700 billion roubles, are being implemented in the Far Eastern Federal District. The effects from the implementation of these projects include the commissioning of about 270 enterprises and creation of over 40 thousand jobs. The paper aims to develop and test tools for estimating the multiplier effect of investment projects on the dynamics of regional development indicators. The integral analysis method was used to aggregate various multi-dimensional characteristics of selected projects into one synthetic indicator. As a result, a generalised ranking of investment projects was compiled to assess their combined contribution to regional development. The top-3 projects are: 1) Inaglinsky mining and processing plant (has the greatest economic effect estimated by the expected gross regional product increment of252 billion roubles); 2) Vostochny Cosmodrome (is expected to create 4,000 new jobs); 3) Sakhalin GRES-2 (has a commercial effect estimated by the expected inflow of private investment in the amount of 432 billion roubles). A detailed study of Far Eastern investment projects in the coordinate space “regional efficiency - regional socio-economic development” allowed us to quantify their multiplicative contribution to socio-economic development of the regions. According to the ranking of investment projects in the Far Eastern Federal District, the largest projects, expected to show high quantitative results, have a multidirectional impact on the socio-economic indicators of the regions of operation. The research results can be used to develop national and regional support programmes for major investment projects to attract additional funding, establish a system of measures for maintaining a favourable investment climate in the region, as well as to create the necessary infrastructure

ОСОБЕННОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ ХОЗЯЙСТВА РЕГИОНА

The article deals with the features of regional economy formation and the factors of the formation of the regional economic complex. The authors investigate conditions in the effective regional economic development.Статья посвящена исследованию особенностей формирования хозяйства региона. Рассматриваются факторы формирования хозяйственного комплекса региона. Исследуются предпосылки эффективного экономического развития региона

FEATURES OF REGIONAL ECONOMY

The article deals with the features of regional economy formation and the factors of the formation of the regional economic complex. The authors investigate conditions in the effective regional economic development

How to Raise Pensions by Legalizing Informal Employment

The article presents the study on the problems of imbalances in the Russian pension system, which prevent ensuring the provision of decent pensions for the population at a level that is adequate to their labor contribution. In this study, the authors set a goal of substantiating proposals for building a balanced pension system in Russia. They considered the possibility of increasing the number of workers (contributors to the pension system) by legalizing the informal employment as a reserve for increasing the receipts of insurance contributions to the pension system. In performing of the study was tested the working hypothesis, which is: to ensure a balanced pension system in Russia and raise the pensions, such reserve of increasing the number of contributors as the legalization of informal employment is sufficient. The article set and addressed the optimization problem of legalizing the informal sector of the Russian economy within the existing unfunded pension system in case of raising the pensions to 40% of lost earnings. The authors built a non-linear programming optimization problem based on the balance equation of unfunded pension system. They presented a number of test estimates and conclusions drawn on their basis. First, to ensure a balanced pension system in Russia and raise the pensions, such reserve for increasing the number of contributors as the legalization of informal employment is significant but not sufficient. Secondly, a 40% wage replacement rate can be achieved only in case of virtually complete legalization of population employment in the informal sector. Thirdly, the authors identified the particular characteristics of informal employment legalization in specific economic activities

Priority development areas in the context of the economic security of macro-region

In March 2017, after the adoption of the Russian Federation Economic Security Strategy until 2030, the need for strengthening the security of the subjects of the Russian Federation including macro-regions became relevant. In this aspect, the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation deserves special attention as it is a strategically important not only for economic, but also the national security of the country. Therefore, at the present stage of the state development, the substantiation of the special measures for the stimulation of the macro-region's development to ensure its economic security is a relevant and priority task. The authors have analysed the intermediate results of some priority development areas since their creation in 2014. We have concluded that not enough time has passed to estimate whether this mechanism was effective or not in stimulating the regional growth and development of the business. Therefore, despite the traditional financial indicators of investment efficiency, we have included the estimation of quantitative change of one productive indicator depending on the change of a number of the parameters influencing this indicator in the assessment of the efficiency of priority development areas. We have estimated this quantitative change by means of the instruments of correlation and regression, and trend modelling. To apply this approach, we have designed a dependency model of the index of industrial production of Primorsky Krai as one of the indicators of the Economic Security Strategy on revealed factors, which cause the growth or decrease of this index. The economic interpretation of the model outputs consists in the following. When investments into fixed capital increase by 1 million rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region grows by 0,9 %. When the indicator of the real monetary income of the population increases by 1 thousand rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region decreases by 1,36 %. Trend forecasting has allowed to define such indicators as the investments into fixed capital and the real income of the population continue to change, the index of industrial production will show a steady downward trend for three next years. This proves that the policy of management of priority development areas in Primorsky Krai is inefficient. The research has concluded that from the perspective of ensuring the economic security of the macro-region, the creation of priority development areas in the Arctic will be effective only when all shortcomings of its functioning are eliminated. It is defined on the basis of the analysis of the corresponding experience of the Far East. High-quality forecasts will contribute to a positive impact from the creation of priority development area not only on the socio-economic sphere of the Arctic, but also on the strengthening the economic security of the macro-region in general. The results of the research can be used for the regional governance, monitoring of regional economic security, as well as for the increase in the scientific validity of state decisions. © 2018 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.Рассмотрен вопрос о необходимости совершенствования подходов к укреплению экономической безопасности на уровне субъектов Российской Федерации, в том числе макрорегионов. Представлен анализ результативности территорий опережающего развития Дальнего Востока