Bubbles or cycles? Housing price dynamics in China’s major cities

Based on the monthly data of 35 cities during the period 2006−2017, this study adopts a recursive forward looking method to detect the presence of housing bubbles and investigate their potential cyclical patterns in China’s large and medium sized cities. Empirical results show that the number of cities reporting housing bubbles has been increasing since 2013, before it declined in 2017. Regarding regional disparities of housing bubbles, 1st-tier and 1.5-tier cities have higher probability than 2nd-tier cities for housing bubbles. In general, eastern region cities have more housing bubbles than central and western region cities, which may indicate the problem of shrinking cities China is facing nowadays. Bubble signals for market correction in major cities and municipalities seemed alarming in particular for the period 2013−2016, however it is difficult to conclude if the market adjustment in 2017 indicates a cyclical pattern. First published online 19 December 201

Public Expenditure And Property Cycle: The Case In Shanghai

China's economic growth heavily relies on fixed asset investment. Previous studies have demonstrated that GDP growth plays a key role in assessing Chinese local officials' performance and enhancing their chances of political promotion. Thus, local officials have a strong motivation to boost the economy, which also impacts the property market. Based on this notion, the empirical results of this study indicate that public expenditure fluctuations and residential property price movements in Shanghai were positively co-integrated from 1992 to 2009, suggesting that increased public expenditure has reshaped Shanghai's property cycle to have longer booms and shorter busts. The findings also shed light on the nature of property cycles in other large- and medium-sized Chinese cities and developing countries with rampant economic growth, low real interest rates and an increasing urban population

The effects of monetary policy on real estate investment in China: a regional perspective

Monetary policy on real estate investment in China has had varying impacts across the country due to regional differences. A supply-determined model is used to measure the policy effects on property investment volume based on a set of regional data from 2003 to 2010. This research yields several important findings contributing to an understanding of uneven policy effects on the unbalanced regional markets. Firstly, it is revealed that the eastern coastal provinces in China have a higher dependence on bank loans for housing investment than that of the other inland provinces. Secondly, this research has disentangled the specific transmission channels of monetary policy in the property market. Bank loan supply, instead of interest rates, would be a potentially effective policy tool for the government in making property market adjustment. Thirdly, the eastern coastal provinces are more sensitive in their responses to the changes of monetary stances than the other non-coastal central and western provinces. Therefore, the government must take note of the significant heterogeneity arising from the regional differences in estimating the policy impacts, although monetary policy is uniformly employed in the nation most of the time

The use of input-output tables in built environmental studies

Department of Building and Real EstateRefereed conference pape

Construction loans and industry development: the case of Hong Kong

Building contractors are generally small private firms. Bank loans are their major, if not only, source of external finance. However, building and construction loans represent a mere minuscule portion of all bank loans in Hong Kong, suggesting that contractors may have been neglected by banks. With the case of Hong Kong, this study examines the lack of supply and demand of construction finance, and the implications for industry competition and innovation. Contractors' perceptions were solicited through a questionnaire survey. Key issues identified were further explored in subsequent interviews. The results were then triangulated with secondary data. It is found that although contractors do not usually have enough assets to pledge as collateral, they generally do not need to borrow that much. The provision of interim payments has enabled them to work with small capital outlay. However, the interim payment mechanism has induced a low barrier to entry, which has helped perpetuate the vicious circle of labour intensiveness of building construction, exploitation of labour-only subcontracting, proliferation of small subcontractors and intense rivalry between firms. The findings conclude that contractors' limited access to finance generally and bank loans in particular has posed a major barrier to innovation and hence industry development.Construction companies, finance, industry development, Hong Kong,

Property investment in a portfolio context: analysis of risk and return of office property investment in HongKong

published_or_final_versionArchitectureDoctoralDoctor of Philosoph

A study of job satisfaction of the staff of the Quantity Surveying Branch of the Architectural Services Department, Hong Kong

published_or_final_versionBusiness AdministrationMasterMaster of Business Administratio

Central-local conflict and property cycle: A Chinese style

This paper reviews how central-local government conflicts pertaining to financial systems, fiscal distribution and land usage have affected the property cycle in China over the past two decades. The literature divides the property cycle in terms of residential construction into 3 stages: Pilot Experimental, Double Track, and Complete Commercialization. At each stage, there are persistent and repetitive conflicts over financial, fiscal and land resources between central and local governments. When the central government takes control, the property market turns to adjustment; when local governments gain advantage, a property boom emerges. As commodity market reform steps forward, the central government's influence on property adjustment is gradually lessened; while local governments' impact on property boom is increasingly intensified. Analysis of literature also indicates that China's property cycle is not well explained by economic fundamentals alone, for government conflicts have invalidated or lessened their impacts on the property sector. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.Link_to_subscribed_fulltex