Analysis of Livestock Mobility and Implications for the Risk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Spread in Iran

International audienceFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Iran and associated with a large impact on the livestock industry. Livestock mobility is recognized as one of the most important risk factors for FMD and other infectious livestock diseases’ introduction and dissemination. The description of temporal and spatial aspects of livestock mobility networks in Iran provides insights into FMD epidemiology. It also assists in the formulation of recommendations to mitigate the risk of animal disease transmission through livestock movements. This study is the first spatiotemporal description of official/registered cattle, sheep, goat, and camel movements in Iran, using records related to the period from March 2020 to August 2021 extracted from the Iran Veterinary Organization (IVO) Quarantine system. It shows that the static networks drawn by the movements of small ruminants, cattle, and camels to farms or slaughterhouses are complex and highlights the predominance of a few provinces and towns. In particular, the results show that Razavi Khorasan and West Azerbaijan provinces, major provinces for the Iranian livestock sector, are provinces where significant volumes of small ruminants and cattle are moved (from, to, or within) and, therefore, should be prioritized for targeted and timely risk reduction interventions. This study produces some of the necessary inputs for the risk assessment of FMD and similar transboundary animal diseases (TADs) spread within Iran, which is needed to regularly update the national risk-based control strategy for FMD and other TADs

Environmental and economic determinants of temporal dynamics of the ruminant movement network of Senegal

Abstract Our understanding of the drivers of the temporal dynamics of livestock mobility networks is currently limited, despite their significant implications for the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. We analyzed the effect of time-varying environmental and economic variables—biomass production, rainfall, livestock market prices, and religious calendar on long-distance movements of cattle and small ruminant herds in Senegal in the years 2014 and 2019. We used principal component analysis to explore the variation of the hypothesized explanatory variables in space and time and a generalized additive modelling approach to assess the effect of those variables on the likelihood of herd movement between pairs of administrative units. Contrary to environmental variables, the patterns of variation of market prices show significant differences across locations. The explanatory variables at origin had the highest contribution to the model deviance reduction. Biomass production and rainfall were found to affect the likelihood of herd movement for both species on at least 1 year. Market price at origin had a strong and consistent effect on the departure of small ruminant herds. Our study shows the potential benefits of regular monitoring of market prices for future efforts at forecasting livestock movements and associated sanitary risks