Does final energy demand in Portugal exhibit long memory? A fractional integration analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference param- eters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Attention-dependent modulation of cortical taste circuits revealed by granger causality with signal-dependent noise

We show, for the first time, that in cortical areas, for example the insular, orbitofrontal, and lateral prefrontal cortex, there is signal-dependent noise in the fMRI blood-oxygen level dependent (BOLD) time series, with the variance of the noise increasing approximately linearly with the square of the signal. Classical Granger causal models are based on autoregressive models with time invariant covariance structure, and thus do not take this signal-dependent noise into account. To address this limitation, here we describe a Granger causal model with signal-dependent noise, and a novel, likelihood ratio test for causal inferences. We apply this approach to the data from an fMRI study to investigate the source of the top-down attentional control of taste intensity and taste pleasantness processing. The Granger causality with signal-dependent noise analysis reveals effects not identified by classical Granger causal analysis. In particular, there is a top-down effect from the posterior lateral prefrontal cortex to the insular taste cortex during attention to intensity but not to pleasantness, and there is a top-down effect from the anterior and posterior lateral prefrontal cortex to the orbitofrontal cortex during attention to pleasantness but not to intensity. In addition, there is stronger forward effective connectivity from the insular taste cortex to the orbitofrontal cortex during attention to pleasantness than during attention to intensity. These findings indicate the importance of explicitly modeling signal-dependent noise in functional neuroimaging, and reveal some of the processes involved in a biased activation theory of selective attention

Diffusion, Crowding & Protein Stability in a Dynamic Molecular Model of the Bacterial Cytoplasm

A longstanding question in molecular biology is the extent to which the behavior of macromolecules observed in vitro accurately reflects their behavior in vivo. A number of sophisticated experimental techniques now allow the behavior of individual types of macromolecule to be studied directly in vivo; none, however, allow a wide range of molecule types to be observed simultaneously. In order to tackle this issue we have adopted a computational perspective, and, having selected the model prokaryote Escherichia coli as a test system, have assembled an atomically detailed model of its cytoplasmic environment that includes 50 of the most abundant types of macromolecules at experimentally measured concentrations. Brownian dynamics (BD) simulations of the cytoplasm model have been calibrated to reproduce the translational diffusion coefficients of Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) observed in vivo, and “snapshots” of the simulation trajectories have been used to compute the cytoplasm's effects on the thermodynamics of protein folding, association and aggregation events. The simulation model successfully describes the relative thermodynamic stabilities of proteins measured in E. coli, and shows that effects additional to the commonly cited “crowding” effect must be included in attempts to understand macromolecular behavior in vivo

Physical mapping and BAC-end sequence analysis provide initial insights into the flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) genome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Flax (<it>Linum usitatissimum </it>L.) is an important source of oil rich in omega-3 fatty acids, which have proven health benefits and utility as an industrial raw material. Flax seeds also contain lignans which are associated with reducing the risk of certain types of cancer. Its bast fibres have broad industrial applications. However, genomic tools needed for molecular breeding were non existent. Hence a project, Total Utilization Flax GENomics (TUFGEN) was initiated. We report here the first genome-wide physical map of flax and the generation and analysis of BAC-end sequences (BES) from 43,776 clones, providing initial insights into the genome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The physical map consists of 416 contigs spanning ~368 Mb, assembled from 32,025 fingerprints, representing roughly 54.5% to 99.4% of the estimated haploid genome (370-675 Mb). The N50 size of the contigs was estimated to be ~1,494 kb. The longest contig was ~5,562 kb comprising 437 clones. There were 96 contigs containing more than 100 clones. Approximately 54.6 Mb representing 8-14.8% of the genome was obtained from 80,337 BES. Annotation revealed that a large part of the genome consists of ribosomal DNA (~13.8%), followed by known transposable elements at 6.1%. Furthermore, ~7.4% of sequence was identified to harbour novel repeat elements. Homology searches against flax-ESTs and NCBI-ESTs suggested that ~5.6% of the transcriptome is unique to flax. A total of 4064 putative genomic SSRs were identified and are being developed as novel markers for their use in molecular breeding.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The first genome-wide physical map of flax constructed with BAC clones provides a framework for accessing target loci with economic importance for marker development and positional cloning. Analysis of the BES has provided insights into the uniqueness of the flax genome. Compared to other plant genomes, the proportion of rDNA was found to be very high whereas the proportion of known transposable elements was low. The SSRs identified from BES will be valuable in saturating existing linkage maps and for anchoring physical and genetic maps. The physical map and paired-end reads from BAC clones will also serve as scaffolds to build and validate the whole genome shotgun assembly.</p

Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey

In this paper, we use the largest exchange rate survey in Colombia to test for the rational expectations hypothesis, the presence of a time-varying risk premium and the accuracy of exchange rate forecasts. Our findings indicate that episodes of exchange rate appreciation preceded expectations of further appreciation in the short run, but were marked by depreciations in the long run. This reversal largely explains the stabilizing pattern of expectations. Additionally, we find that the forward discount differed from future exchange rate changes due to the rejection of the unbiasedness condition and to the presence of a time-varying risk premium. Finally, we find that only short run expectations were able to outperform a random walk process as well as models of extrapolative, adaptive, and regressive expectations. Long-run expectations, on the other hand, behaved poorly in terms of forecasting accuracy

Three-dimensional ultrasonic imaging system

Inventor name used in this publication: 郑永平, Zheng YongpingInventor name used in this publication: 张忠伟, Zhang ZhongweiInventor name used in this publication: 陈 昕Title in Traditional Chinese: 三維超聲波成像系統ChinaVersion of Recor

Detecting system for soft tissues of soles

Inventor name used in this publication: 郑永平, Zheng YongpingInventor name used in this publication: 陈昕Inventor name used in this publication: 张忠伟, Zhang ZhongweiTitle in Traditional Chinese: 足底軟組織檢測系統ChinaVersion of Recor