Spatial Error Distribution and Error Cause Analysis of TMPA-3B42V7 Satellite-Based Precipitation Products over Mainland China

With a high spatial resolution and wide coverage, satellite-based precipitation products have compensated for the shortcomings of traditional measuring methods based on rain gauge stations, such as the sparse and uneven distribution of rain gauge stations. However, the accuracy of satellite precipitation products is not high enough in some areas, and the causes of their errors are complicated. In order to better calibrate and apply the product’s data, relevant research on this kind of product is required. Accordingly, this study investigated the spatial error distribution and spatial influence factors of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) post-process 3B42V7 (hereafter abbreviated as 3B42V7) data over mainland China. This study calculated accuracy indicators based on the 3B42V7 data and daily precipitation data from 797 rain gauge stations across mainland China over the time range of 1998–2012. Then, a clustering analysis was conducted based on the accuracy indicators. Moreover, the geographical detector (GD) was used to perform the error cause analysis of the 3B42V7. The main findings of this study are the following. (1) Within mainland China, the 3B42V7 data accuracy decreased gradually from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, and shows a similar distribution for precipitation. High values of systematic error (>1.0) is mainly concentrated in the southwest Tibetan Plateau, while high values of random error (>1.0) are mainly concentrated around the Tarim Basin. (2) Mainland China can be divided into three areas by the spectral clustering method. It is recommended that the 3B42V7 can be effectively used in Area I, while in Area III the product should be calibrated before use, and the product in Area II can be used after an applicability study. (3) The GD result shows that precipitation is the most important spatial factor among the seven factors influencing the spatial error distribution of the 3B42V7 data. The relationships between spatial factors are synergistic rather than individual when influencing the product’s accuracy

A Framework on Fast Mapping of Urban Flood Based on a Multi-Objective Random Forest Model

Abstract Fast and accurate prediction of urban flood is of considerable practical importance to mitigate the effects of frequent flood disasters in advance. To improve urban flood prediction efficiency and accuracy, we proposed a framework for fast mapping of urban flood: a coupled model based on physical mechanisms was first constructed, a rainfall-inundation database was generated, and a hybrid flood mapping model was finally proposed using the multi-objective random forest (MORF) method. The results show that the coupled model had good reliability in modelling urban flood, and 48 rainfall-inundation scenarios were then specified. The proposed hybrid MORF model in the framework also demonstrated good performance in predicting inundated depth under the observed and scenario rainfall events. The spatial inundated depths predicted by the MORF model were close to those of the coupled model, with differences typically less than 0.1 m and an average correlation coefficient reaching 0.951. The MORF model, however, achieved a computational speed of 200 times faster than the coupled model. The overall prediction performance of the MORF model was also better than that of the k-nearest neighbor model. Our research provides a novel approach to rapid urban flood mapping and flood early warning

Evaluation of TMPA 3B42-V7 Product on Extreme Precipitation Estimates

Availability of precipitation data at high spatial and temporal resolution is crucial for the understanding of precipitation behaviors that are determinant for environmental aspects such as hydrology, ecology, and social aspects like agriculture, food security, or health issues. This study evaluates the performance of 3B42-V7 satellite-based precipitation product on extreme precipitation estimates in China, by using the Fuzzy C-Means algorithm and L-moment-based regional frequency analysis method. The China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product is employed to measure the estimation biases of 3B42-V7. Results show that: (1) for most regions of China, the Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Normal distributions are preferable for extreme precipitation estimates; (2) the extreme precipitation estimations of 3B42-V7 for different return periods have a high correlation with those of CGDPA, with biases within 25% for a majority of China on extreme precipitation estimates

Evaluation of TMPA 3B42-V7 Product on Extreme Precipitation Estimates

Availability of precipitation data at high spatial and temporal resolution is crucial for the understanding of precipitation behaviors that are determinant for environmental aspects such as hydrology, ecology, and social aspects like agriculture, food security, or health issues. This study evaluates the performance of 3B42-V7 satellite-based precipitation product on extreme precipitation estimates in China, by using the Fuzzy C-Means algorithm and L-moment-based regional frequency analysis method. The China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product is employed to measure the estimation biases of 3B42-V7. Results show that: (1) for most regions of China, the Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Normal distributions are preferable for extreme precipitation estimates; (2) the extreme precipitation estimations of 3B42-V7 for different return periods have a high correlation with those of CGDPA, with biases within 25% for a majority of China on extreme precipitation estimates

Assessment and Hydrological Validation of Merged Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Based on the Gauge-Free Triple Collocation Approach

Obtaining accurate near-real-time precipitation data and merging multiple precipitation estimates require sufficient in-situ rain gauge networks. The triple collocation (TC) approach is a novel error assessment method that does not require rain gauge data and provides reasonable precipitation estimates by merging data; this study assesses the TC approach for producing reliable near-real-time satellite-based precipitation estimate (SPE) products and the utility of the merged SPEs for hydrological modeling of ungauged areas. Three widely used near-real-time SPEs, including the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) early/late run (E/L) series, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR) products, are used in the Beijiang basin in south China. The results show that the TC-based merged SPEs generally outperform all original SPEs, with higher consistency with the in-situ observations, and show superiority over the simple equal-weighted merged SPEs used for comparison; these findings indicate the superiority of the TC approach for utilizing the error characteristics of input SPEs for multi-SPE merging for ungauged areas. The validation of the hydrological modeling utility based on the Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier (GR4J) model shows that the streamflow modeled by the TC-based merged SPEs has the best performance among all SPEs, especially for modeling low streamflow because the integration with the PDIR outperforms the IMERG products in low streamflow modeling. The TC merging approach performs satisfactorily for producing reliable near-real-time SPEs without gauge data, showing great potential for near-real-time applications, such as modeling rainstorms and monitoring floods and flash droughts in ungauged areas

A Framework on Analyzing Long-Term Drought Changes and Its Influential Factors Based on the PDSI

Drought is one of the most frequent and most widespread natural disasters worldwide, significantly impacting agricultural production and the ecological environment. An investigation of long-term drought changes and its influencing factors provides not only an understanding of historical droughts but also a scientific basis for the protection of future water resources. This study investigated the temporal characteristics of drought in a study site located in the center of Southwest China (SWC) over a 700-year period (AD 1300–2005) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The linkage between drought and its influencing factors is discussed. An algorithm based on the random forest (RF) method was proposed to analyze the dynamic influence of the factors on drought. We also examined the linkages between the demise of two dynasties and historical drought events. The results showed that the study site was a drought-prone area in the study period and experienced a non-significant drying trend in all centuries, except for the 17th century; a total of 232 droughts were detected in the study site from AD 1300–2005. The wavelet spectrum of the PDSI series showed the existence of 4-, 8-, 16-, 32-, and 128-year-periods. A strong correlation existed between the sunspot numbers and the PDSI. The correlation of the period between the PDSI and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) series in the same frequency domain was weak, while the ENSO exhibited a strong interaction with the PDSI in some time periods. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and PDSI had no resonance period in the low-frequency region, but there was a period of 80–130 years in the high-frequency region. The relative rates of influence of the ENSO, sunspot numbers, and PDO during AD 1700–1996 were 38.40%, 31.81%, and 29.8%, respectively. However, the mechanism of the interaction between droughts and the influential factors is complex, and the dominant factor changed over time. The analysis of long-term drought changes based on the PDSI series may provide clues to understand the development of historical events

Surface Water Quality Evaluation Based on a Game Theory-Based Cloud Model

Water quality evaluation is an essential measure to analyze water quality. However, excessive randomness and fuzziness affect the process of evaluation, thus reducing the accuracy of evaluation. Therefore, this study proposed a cloud model for evaluating the water quality to alleviate this problem. Analytic hierarchy process and entropy theory were used to calculate the subjective weight and objective weight, respectively, and then they were coupled as a combination weight (CW) via game theory. The proposed game theory-based cloud model (GCM) was then applied to the Qixinggang section of the Beijiang River. The results show that the CW ranks fecal coliform as the most important factor, followed by total nitrogen and total phosphorus, while biochemical oxygen demand and fluoride were considered least important. There were 19 months (31.67%) at grade I, 39 months (65.00%) at grade II, and one month at grade IV and grade V during 2010–2014. A total of 52 months (86.6%) of GCM were identical to the comprehensive evaluation result (CER). The obtained water quality grades of GCM are close to the grades of the analytic hierarchy process weight (AHPW) due to the weight coefficient of AHPW set to 0.7487. Generally, one or two grade gaps exist among the results of the three groups of weights, suggesting that the index weight is not particularly sensitive to the cloud model. The evaluated accuracy of water quality can be improved by modifying the quantitative boundaries. This study could provide a reference for water quality evaluation, prevention, and improvement of water quality assessment and other applications

Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility assessment using random forest weight at basin scale

Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility assessment is currently considered an effective tool for landslide hazard assessment as well as for appropriate warning and forecasting. As part of the assessment procedure, a credible index weight matrix can strongly increase the rationality of the assessment result. This study proposed a novel weight-determining method by using random forests (RFs) to find a suitable weight. Random forest weights (RFWs) and eight indexes were used to construct an assessment model of the Dongjiang River basin based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results show that RF identified the elevation (EL) and slope angle (SL) as the two most important indexes, and soil erodibility factor (SEF) and shear resistance capacity (SRC) as the two least important indexes. The assessment accuracy of RFW can be as high as 79.71%, which is higher than the entropy weight (EW) of 63.77%. Two experiments were conducted by respectively removing the most dominant and the weakest indexes to examine the rationality and feasibility of RFW; both precision validation and contrastive analysis indicated the assessment results of RFW to be reasonable and satisfactory. The initial application of RF for weight determination shows significant potential and the use of RFW is therefore recommended

Utility of Open-Access Long-Term Precipitation Data Products for Correcting Climate Model Projection in South China

Insufficient precipitation observations hinder the bias-correction of Global Climate Model (GCM) precipitation outputs in ungauged and remote areas. As a result, the reliability of future precipitation and water resource projections is restricted for these areas. Open-access quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products offer a potential solution to this challenge. This study assesses the effectiveness of three widely used, long-term QPEs, including ERA5, PERSIANN-CDR, and CHIRPS, in bias-correcting precipitation outputs from the CMIP6 GCMs. The evaluation involves the reproduction of precipitation distribution, streamflow simulation utility based on a hydrological model, and the accuracy of extreme indices associated with rainstorm/flood/drought events. This study selects the Beijiang basin located in the subtropical monsoon area of South China as the case study area. The results demonstrate that bias-correction using QPEs improves the performance of GCM precipitation outputs in reproducing precipitation/streamflow distribution and extreme indices, with a few exceptions. PCDR generally exhibits the most effective bias-correction utility, consistently delivering reasonable performance across various cases, making it a suitable alternative to gauge data for bias-correction in ungauged areas. However, GCM outputs corrected by ERA5 tend to overestimate overall precipitation and streamflow (by up to about 25% to 30%), while the correction results of CHIRPS significantly overestimate certain extreme indices (by up to about 50% to 100%). Based on the revealed performance of QPEs in correcting GCM outputs, this study provides references for selecting QPEs in GCM-based water resource projections in remote and ungauged areas

Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activity on Runoff Change in the Dongjiang River Basin, China

Climate change and human activity are typically regarded as the two most important factors affecting runoff. Quantitative evaluation of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff is important for the protection, planning, and management of water resources. This study assesses the contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff change in the Dongjiang River basin from 1960 to 2005 by using linear regression, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model, and the climate elasticity method. Results indicate that the annual temperature in the basin significantly increased, whereas the pan evaporation in the basin significantly decreased (95%). The natural period ranged from 1960 to 1990, and the affected period ranged from 1991 to 2005. The percentage of urban area during the natural period, which was 1.94, increased to 4.79 during the affected period. SWAT modeling of the Dongjiang River basin exhibited a reasonable and reliable performance. The impacts induced by human activity on runoff change were as follows: 39% in the upstream area, 13% in the midstream area, 77% in the downstream area, and 42% in the entire basin. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area than in either upstream and midstream areas. However, the contribution of climate change (58%) is slightly larger than that of human activity (42%) in the whole basin