Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates for Sieve Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression

We study the problem of nonparametric regression when the regressor is endogenous, which is an important nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) regression in econometrics and a difficult ill-posed inverse problem with unknown operator in statistics. We first establish a general upper bound on the sup-norm (uniform) convergence rate of a sieve estimator, allowing for endogenous regressors and weakly dependent data. This result leads to the optimal sup-norm convergence rates for spline and wavelet least squares regression estimators under weakly dependent data and heavy-tailed error terms. This upper bound also yields the sup-norm convergence rates for sieve NPIV estimators under i.i.d. data: the rates coincide with the known optimal $L^2$-norm rates for severely ill-posed problems, and are power of $\log(n)$ slower than the optimal $L^2$-norm rates for mildly ill-posed problems. We then establish the minimax risk lower bound in sup-norm loss, which coincides with our upper bounds on sup-norm rates for the spline and wavelet sieve NPIV estimators. This sup-norm rate optimality provides another justification for the wide application of sieve NPIV estimators. Useful results on weakly-dependent random matrices are also provided

Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates and Asymptotic Normality for Series Estimators Under Weak Dependence and Weak Conditions

We show that spline and wavelet series regression estimators for weakly dependent regressors attain the optimal uniform (i.e. sup-norm) convergence rate $(n/\log n)^{-p/(2p+d)}$ of Stone (1982), where $d$ is the number of regressors and $p$ is the smoothness of the regression function. The optimal rate is achieved even for heavy-tailed martingale difference errors with finite $(2+(d/p))$th absolute moment for $d/p<2$. We also establish the asymptotic normality of t statistics for possibly nonlinear, irregular functionals of the conditional mean function under weak conditions. The results are proved by deriving a new exponential inequality for sums of weakly dependent random matrices, which is of independent interest.Comment: forthcoming in Journal of Econometric

Optimal Sup-norm Rates and Uniform Inference on Nonlinear Functionals of Nonparametric IV Regression

This paper makes several important contributions to the literature about nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation and inference on a structural function $h_0$ and its functionals. First, we derive sup-norm convergence rates for computationally simple sieve NPIV (series 2SLS) estimators of $h_0$ and its derivatives. Second, we derive a lower bound that describes the best possible (minimax) sup-norm rates of estimating $h_0$ and its derivatives, and show that the sieve NPIV estimator can attain the minimax rates when $h_0$ is approximated via a spline or wavelet sieve. Our optimal sup-norm rates surprisingly coincide with the optimal root-mean-squared rates for severely ill-posed problems, and are only a logarithmic factor slower than the optimal root-mean-squared rates for mildly ill-posed problems. Third, we use our sup-norm rates to establish the uniform Gaussian process strong approximations and the score bootstrap uniform confidence bands (UCBs) for collections of nonlinear functionals of $h_0$ under primitive conditions, allowing for mildly and severely ill-posed problems. Fourth, as applications, we obtain the first asymptotic pointwise and uniform inference results for plug-in sieve t-statistics of exact consumer surplus (CS) and deadweight loss (DL) welfare functionals under low-level conditions when demand is estimated via sieve NPIV. Empiricists could read our real data application of UCBs for exact CS and DL functionals of gasoline demand that reveals interesting patterns and is applicable to other markets.Comment: This paper is a major extension of Sections 2 and 3 of our Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper CFDP1923, Cemmap Working Paper CWP56/13 and arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.0412 [math.ST]. Section 3 of the previous version of this paper (dealing with data-driven choice of sieve dimension) is currently being revised as a separate pape

Monte Carlo Confidence Sets for Identified Sets

In complicated/nonlinear parametric models, it is generally hard to know whether the model parameters are point identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of full parameters and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. These CSs are based on level sets of optimal sample criterion functions (such as likelihood or optimally-weighted or continuously-updated GMM criterions). The level sets are constructed using cutoffs that are computed via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations directly from the quasi-posterior distributions of the criterions. We establish new Bernstein-von Mises (or Bayesian Wilks) type theorems for the quasi-posterior distributions of the quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) and profile QLR in partially-identified regular models and some non-regular models. These results imply that our MC CSs have exact asymptotic frequentist coverage for identified sets of full parameters and of subvectors in partially-identified regular models, and have valid but potentially conservative coverage in models with reduced-form parameters on the boundary. Our MC CSs for identified sets of subvectors are shown to have exact asymptotic coverage in models with singularities. We also provide results on uniform validity of our CSs over classes of DGPs that include point and partially identified models. We demonstrate good finite-sample coverage properties of our procedures in two simulation experiments. Finally, our procedures are applied to two non-trivial empirical examples: an airline entry game and a model of trade flows

An Access Control Model for Protecting Provenance Graphs

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Boron-containing organosilane polymers and ceramic materials thereof

The present invention relates to a polyorgano borosilane ceramic precursor polymer comprising a plurality of repeating units of the formula: (R(sup 1) single bond B)(sub p) being linked together at B by second units of the formula: single bond (R sup 2) single bond (Si single bond R sup 3) single bond (sub q), where R(sup 1) is a lower alkyl, cycloalkyl, phenyl, or (R(sup 2)R(sup 3) single bond Si single bond B single bond)(sub n) and R(sup 2) and R(sup 3) are each independently selected from hydrogen, lower alkyl, vinyl, cycloalkyl, or aryl, n is an integer between 1 and 100; p is an integer between 1 and 100; and q is an integer between 1 and 100. These materials are prepared by combining an organo borohalide of the formula R(sup 4) single bond B single bond (X sup 1) (sub 2) where R(sup 4) is selected from halogen, lower alkyl, cycloalkyl, or aryl, and an organo halosilane of the formula: R(sup 2)(R sup 3)Si(X sup 2)(sub 2) where R(sup 2) and R (sup 3) are each independently selected from lower alkyl, cycloalkyl, or aryl, and X(sup 1) and X(sup 2) are each independently selected from halogen, in an anhydrous aprotic solvent having a boiling point at ambient pressure of not greater than 160 C with in excess of four equivalents of an alkali metal, heating the reaction mixture and recovering the polyorgano borosilane. These silicon boron polymers are useful to generate high-temperature ceramic materials, such as SiC, SiB4, and B4C, upon thermal degradation above 600 C