Adaptation to climate change on arable farms in the Dutch province of Flevoland. An inventory for the AgriAdapt project

In Flevoland, arable farming is the most dominant land use. Adaptation options related to water, pests and diseases have been studied using a literature review. The green-blue zone Oostvaarderswold in Flevoland contributes to water storage, to nature conservation and to recreation. Compensation costs for structural wetting that are associated with various frequencies of flooding have been calculated. At inundation frequencies greater than once in 5 years, buying the agricultural land might be a better option than compensating for inundation damage or income loss. Various policies will have an effect on future agriculture in the province. A literature survey of spatial policy plans shows that urbanisation will increase and that some cities, like Almere, Lelystad, Dronten and Emmeloord, will continue to grow and expand. As a consequence, more inhabitants will require more space for nature and recreational activities, which in turn will lead to agricultural land being required

How Volatile is ENSO?

The El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture ENSO volatility. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility. Moreover, 1998 is a turning point for the volatility of SOI, and the ENSO volatility has became stronger since 1998 which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased.GARCH;Volatility;EGARCH;GJR;ENSO;SOI;SOT

Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analyzed. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price, which explains why global fertilizer prices reached a peak in 2008. We also find that that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. As volatility invokes financial risk, the relationship between oil price and global fertilizer prices and their associated volatility is important for public policy relating to the development of optimal energy use, global agricultural production, and financial integration.volatility;crude oil price;global fertilizer price;non-renewable fertilizers;structural breakpoint unit root test

Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intraday Range

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is commonly used for financial risk measurement. It has recently become even more important, especially during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We propose some novel nonlinear threshold conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViar) models that incorporate intra-day price ranges. Model estimation and inference are performed using the Bayesian approach via the link with the Skewed-Laplace distribution. We examine how a range of risk models perform during the 2008-09 financial crisis, and evaluate how the crisis affects the performance of risk models via forecasting VaR. Empirical analysis is conducted on five Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation stock market indices and two exchange rates????. We examine violation rates, back-testing criteria, market risk charges and quantile loss function to measure the forecasting performance of a variety of risk models. The proposed threshold CAViaR model, incorporating range information, is shown to forecast VaR more efficiently than other models, which should be useful for financial practitioners.Markov chain Monte Carlo;backtesting;Value-at-Risk;CAViaR model;Skewed-Laplace distribution;intra-day range

Globalization and Knowledge Spillover: International Direct Investment, Exports and Patents

This paper examines the impact of the three main channels of international trade on domestic innovation, namely outward direct investment, inward direct investment (IDI) and exports. The number of Triadic patents serves as a proxy for innovation. The data set contains 37 countries that are considered to be highly competitive in the world market, covering the period 1994 to 2005. The empirical results show that increased exports and outward direct investment are able to stimulate an increase in patent output. In contrast, IDI exhibits a negative relationship with domestic patents. The paper shows that the impact of IDI on domestic innovation is characterized by two forces, and the positive effect of cross-border mergers and acquisitions by foreigners is less than the negative effect of the remaining IDI.R&D;export;international direct investment;inward direct investment;negative binomial model;triadic patent;outward direct investment

Estimating the impact of whaling on global whale watching

After the commercial whaling moratorium was enacted in 1986, whale watching became one of the fastest growing tourism industries worldwide. As whaling was regarded as an activity incompatible with whale watching, the possible resumption of commercial whaling caused an urgent need to investigate the potential negative effects of whaling on the whale-watching industry. We examine the potential impacts of whaling on the global whale-watching tourism industry using unbalanced panel data model. The empirical results indicate that the resumption of commercial whaling has the potential for a negative effect on the global whale-watching industry, especially for nations that are engaged in whaling.delay-difference equation model;global whale watching;whaling

Baryons in Partially-Quenched Chiral Perturbation Theory

I discuss the inclusion of baryons into partially-quenched chiral perturbation theory and describe one-loop calculations that have been performed.Comment: Lattice2002(matrixel) : talk presented at Lattice 2002, 7 page

Hardening mechanism of commercially pure Mg processed by high pressure torsion at room temperature

Coarse-grained Mg in the as-cast condition and fine-grained Mg in the extruded condition were processed by high pressure torsion (HPT) at room temperature for up to 16 turns. Microstructure observation and texture analysis indicate that to fulfil the Von Mises criterion, the non-basal slip is activated in the as-cast Mg and tension twinning is activated in the as-extruded Mg. Although the deformation mechanism is different in the as-cast Mg and the as-extruded Mg during HPT, their hardening evolutions are similar, i.e. after 1/8 turn of HPT, microhardness of the as-cast Mg and the extruded Mg both show a significant increase and further HPT processing does not significantly further increase the microhardness. Texture strengthening can explain the rapid hardening. Hardness anisotropy and texture data results suggest that texture strengthening plays an important role for both types of samples. Texture strengthening weakens with decreasing grain size

An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.Avian flu;international tourism;SARS;dynamic panel data model;static fixed effects model