Evolutionary computation enabled game theory based modelling of electricity market behaviours and applications

The collapse of the Californian electricity market system in 2001 has highlighted urgency in research in intelligent electricity trading systems and strategies involving both suppliers and customs. In their trading systems, power generation companies under the new electricity trading arrangement (NETA) of the UK are now developing gaming strategies. However, modelling of such "intelligent" market behaviours is extremely challenging, because traditional mathematical and computer modelling techniques cannot cope with the involvement of game theory. In this paper, evolutionary computation enabled modelling of such system is presented. Both competitive and cooperative game theory strategies are taken into account in evolving the intelligent model. The model then leads to intelligent trading strategy development and decision support. Experimental tests, verification and validation are carried out with various strategies, using different model scales and data published by NETA. Results show that evolutionary computation enabled game theory involved modelling and decision making provides an effective tool for NETA trading analysis, prediction and support

A search algorithm for a class of optimal finite-precision controller realization problems with saddle points

With game theory, we review the optimal digital controller realization problems that maximize a finite word length (FWL) closed-loop stability measure. For a large class of these optimal FWL controller realization problems which have saddle points, a minimax-based search algorithm is derived for finding a global optimal solution. The algorithm consists of two stages. In the first stage, the closed form of a transformation set is constructed which contains global optimal solutions. In the second stage, a subgradient approach searches this transformation set to obtain a global optimal solution. This algorithm does not suffer from the usual drawbacks associated with using direct numerical optimization methods to tackle these FWL realization problems. Furthermore, for a small class of optimal FWL controller realization problems which have no saddle point, the proposed algorithm also provides useful information to help solve them

Semantics-Space-Time Cube. A Conceptual Framework for Systematic Analysis of Texts in Space and Time

We propose an approach to analyzing data in which texts are associated with spatial and temporal references with the aim to understand how the text semantics vary over space and time. To represent the semantics, we apply probabilistic topic modeling. After extracting a set of topics and representing the texts by vectors of topic weights, we aggregate the data into a data cube with the dimensions corresponding to the set of topics, the set of spatial locations (e.g., regions), and the time divided into suitable intervals according to the scale of the planned analysis. Each cube cell corresponds to a combination (topic, location, time interval) and contains aggregate measures characterizing the subset of the texts concerning this topic and having the spatial and temporal references within these location and interval. Based on this structure, we systematically describe the space of analysis tasks on exploring the interrelationships among the three heterogeneous information facets, semantics, space, and time. We introduce the operations of projecting and slicing the cube, which are used to decompose complex tasks into simpler subtasks. We then present a design of a visual analytics system intended to support these subtasks. To reduce the complexity of the user interface, we apply the principles of structural, visual, and operational uniformity while respecting the specific properties of each facet. The aggregated data are represented in three parallel views corresponding to the three facets and providing different complementary perspectives on the data. The views have similar look-and-feel to the extent allowed by the facet specifics. Uniform interactive operations applicable to any view support establishing links between the facets. The uniformity principle is also applied in supporting the projecting and slicing operations on the data cube. We evaluate the feasibility and utility of the approach by applying it in two analysis scenarios using geolocated social media data for studying people's reactions to social and natural events of different spatial and temporal scales

Early Time Dynamics of Gluon Fields in High Energy Nuclear Collisions

Nuclei colliding at very high energy create a strong, quasi-classical gluon field during the initial phase of their interaction. We present an analytic calculation of the initial space-time evolution of this field in the limit of very high energies using a formal recursive solution of the Yang-Mills equations. We provide analytic expressions for the initial chromo-electric and chromo-magnetic fields and for their energy-momentum tensor. In particular, we discuss event-averaged results for energy density and energy flow as well as for longitudinal and transverse pressure of this system. For example, we find that the ratio of longitudinal to transverse pressure very early in the system behaves as $p_L/p_T = -[1-\frac{3}{2a}(Q\tau)^2]/[1-\frac{1}{a}(Q\tau)^2]+\mathcal{O}(Q\tau)^4$ where $\tau$ is the longitudinal proper time, $Q$ is related to the saturation scales $Q_s$ of the two nuclei, and $a = \ln (Q^2/\hat{m}^2)$ with $\hat m$ a scale to be defined later. Our results are generally applicable if $\tau \lesssim 1/Q$. As already discussed in a previous paper, the transverse energy flow $S^i$ of the gluon field exhibits hydrodynamic-like contributions that follow transverse gradients of the energy density $\nabla^i \varepsilon$. In addition, a rapidity-odd energy flow also emerges from the non-abelian analog of Gauss' Law and generates non-vanishing angular momentum of the field. We will discuss the space-time picture that emerges from our analysis and its implications for observables in heavy ion collisions.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figure

The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: Evidence from China’s stock market

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2012 The Chinese Economic Association.Using the most comprehensive weekly dataset of ‘A’ shares listed on the Chinese stock market, this paper examines short-term contrarian strategies under different market states from 1995–2010. We find statistically significant profits from contrarian strategies, especially during the period after 2007, when China (along with other countries) experienced an economic downturn following the worldwide financial crisis. Our empirical evidence suggests that: (1) no significant profit is generated from either momentum or contrarian strategies in the intermediate horizon; (2) after microstructure effects are adjusted for, contrarian strategies with only four to eight weeks holding periods based on the stocks’ previous four to eight week's performance generate statistically significant profits of around 0.2% per week; (3) the contrarian strategy following a ‘down’ market generates higher profit than those following an ‘up’ market, suggesting that a contrarian strategy could be used as a shelter when the market is in decline. The profits following a ‘down’ market are robust after risk adjustment

Space Charge Behaviour in Oil-Paper Insulation with Different Aging Condition

Oil-paper insulation system is widely used in power transformers and cables. The dielectric properties of oilpaper insulation play an important role in the reliable operation of power equipment. Oil-paper insulation degrades under a combined stress of thermal (the most important factor), electrical, mechanical, and chemical stresses during routine operations, which has great effect on the dielectric properties of oil-paper insulation [1]. Space charge in oil-paper insulation has a close relation to its electrical performance [1]. In this paper, space charge behaviour of oil-paper insulation sample with three different ageing conditions (aged for 0, 35 and 77 days) was investigated using the pulsed electroacoustic (PEA) technique. The influence of aging on the space charge dynamics behaviour was analysed. Results show that aging has great effect on the space charge dynamics of oil-paper insulation. The homocharge injection takes place under all three aging conditions above. Positive charges tend to accumulate in the sample, and increase with the oil-paper insulation sample deterioration. The time to achieve the maximum injection charge density is 30s, 2min and 10min for oil-paper insulation sample aged for 0, 35 and 77 days, respectively. The maximum charge density injected in the sample aged for 77 days is more than two times larger than the initial sample. In addition, the charge decay speed becomes much slower with the aging time increase. There is an exponential relationship between the total charge amount and the decay time. The decay time constant ? increases with the increasing deterioration condition of the oil-paper insulation sample. The ? value may be used to reflect the aging status of oil-paper insulation