Analysis of Commodity Program Adjustments for U.S. Rice in Stochastic Framework

Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of direct payments. Results show that if direct payments (DP) are eliminated in 2012, a 23% increase in both the target price (TP) and loan rate (LR) triggers counter-cyclical payments (CCP) 80% of the time; and it will take an increase of 48% in TP and LR to generate CCP enough to compensate for the loss in total DP. If DP is gradually removed over 5 years, the trigger and compensatory increases in TP and LR are 41% and 46%, respectively. Furthermore, if DP is eliminated outright and TP maintained, an increase of 71% in LR triggers loan deficiency payments (LDP) 75% of the time; and it will take an increase of 130% in LR to generate enough LDP to recoup the total loss in DP. Under gradual removal of DP, the trigger and compensatory increases in LR are 71% and 92%, respectively.U.S. commodity program, threshold and loss-compensatory increases, stochastic analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Q18,

ANALYSIS OF U.S. RICE POLICY IN A GLOBAL STOCHASTIC FRAMEWORK

Replaced with revised version of paper 04/13/11.Government payments, stochastic analysis, deterministic analysis, rice trade, empirical distribution, Arkansas Global Rice Model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Q11, Q17,

2011 Updated Arkansas Global Rice Model

The Arkansas Global Rice Model is based on a multi-country statistical simulation and econometric framework. The model is disaggregated by five world regions: Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Each region includes country models which have a supply sector, a demand sector, a trade, stocks and price linkage equations. All equations used in this model are estimated using econometric procedures or identities. Estimates are based upon a set of explanatory variables including exogenous macroeconomic factors such as income, population, inflation rate, technology development, and especially, government determined policy variables which reflect the various mechanisms by which countries intervene in their rice sector economy. Individual country models are linked through net trade to recognize the interdependence of countries in the world rice economy.Rice, trade model, policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, CO2, C61, F11, F14, Q17, Q18,

HYBRID RICE AND ITS IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY AND THE PATTERN OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE

The hybrid rice technology is one of the many ways in which productivity of scarce resources devoted to rice production could be enhanced, with the consequent alleviation of food insecurity. The findings of this study show that the hybrid rice technology has so far made some sizable contributions to per-capita availability of rice in adopting countries with marginal spillover effects to other regions. However, at forecasted population growths, a massive intensification of adoption would be needed to maintain per-capita availability of rice at baseline levels. But even with adoption rates climbing significantly, much higher equilibrium prices are expected, which will represent a challenge for the hungry in many parts of the world. While hybrid rice has the potential to contribute significantly to improve production and food security, more efforts are needed to improve the productivity of the constraining production resources.hybrid rice, food security, technology change, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q16, Q55,

Comparative Financial Characteristics of U.S. Farms by Type, 2005

This study presents and analyzes the mean financial characteristics of different types of crop and livestock farms in the U.S. in 2005. The eighteen farm types are: poultry, beef cattle, hogs, dairy, general livestock, general cash grain, wheat, corn, soybean, grain sorghum, rice, tobacco, cotton, peanut, general crop, fruits and tree nuts, vegetables, and nursery and greenhouse. Significant, two-way statistical differences in mean farm income statement and farm balance sheet variables are highlighted. Results provide a general indication of the comparative profitability, liquidity, solvency, and financial efficiency of different types of U. S. crop and livestock farms.Farm type, ARMS data, financial characteristics, financial ratios, 2005, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics, Q12, Q14, D21,

World Rice Outlook International Rice Baseline Projections, 2011-2020

International rice, baseline projections, policy, Arkansas Global Rice Model, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, C02, F01, F14, F17, Q17, Q18, R11,

DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF CAPPING ELIGIBILITY FOR COMMODITY PROGRAM PAYMENTS

Adjusted Gross Income, Commodity Payments, Eligibility, Means Test, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q12, Q18,