Aid, Volatility and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When It Does Not

In previous papers we have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e., aid is more effective in countries that are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, which then is not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper we examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness. We first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as procyclical as often argued, and, even if procyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. We measure aid volatility by several methods and assess procyclicality of aid with respect to exports, thus departing from previous literature, which usually assesses procyclicality of aid with respect to national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of exports and the volatility of the aid plus exports flows. Then, in order to take into account the diversity of shocks to which aid can respond, we consider the effect of aid on income volatility and again find that aid is making growth more stable, while its volatility reduces this effect. Finally, we find evidence through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is to a large extent due to its stabilizing effect.aid, shocks, stability, growth

Aid, Volatility and Growth Again. When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not

In previous papers we have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e. that aid is more effective in countries which are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, which then is not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper we examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness. We first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as pro-cyclical as often argued, and, even if pro-cyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. We measure aid volatility by several methods and assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to exports, thus departing from previous literature, which usually assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of exports and the volatility of the aid plus exports flows. Then, in order to take into account the diversity of shocks to which aid can respond, we consider the effect of aid on income volatility and again find that aid is making growth more stable, while its volatility reduces this effect. We finally evidence through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is to a large extent due to its stabilizing effect.cerdi

Aid and Performance: A Reassessment

Cet article compare deux conceptions relatives à l'efficacité de l'aide et à son allocation. La première, qui correspond au nouveau paradigme de l'aide, soutient que l'aide n'est efficace que si la politique économique des pays receveurs est bonne. Selon la seconde, présentée ici, l'efficacité de l'aide dépend de l'environnement externe et climatique (naturel), meilleur est cet environnement (ou moins le pays est vulnérable) moins l'aide est efficace. Les tests économétriques transversaux relatifs à des taux de croissance empilés sur deux périodes de douze ans donnent clairement l'avantage à la seconde hypothèse. Toutefois, les deux vues peuvent être conciliées dans le principe d'une allocation de l'aide fondée sur les performances, à condition de définir celles-ci comme les résultats économiques ajustés pour l'impact de l'environnement. Dans cet esprit, plusieurs mesures de performances sont à leur tour comparées. Le principe énoncé conduit à accorder plus d'aide si l'environnement est mauvais, pour une politique donnée, ou/et si la politique est bonne (pour un environnement donné).

Aid, Volatility and Growth,with special reference to Africa

In two previous papers we have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e. that aid is more effective in countries which are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, hence not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper we examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness in Africa. We first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as pro-cyclical as often argued, and that, even if pro-cyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. We measure aid volatility by two methods and assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to exports, thus departing from previous literature, which usually assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of aid and the volatility of the a aid plus exports. We then evidence through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is to a large extent due to a stabilizing effect. Finally we consider the implications of this effect for income volatility.

Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability

This paper revisits the relationship between aid and growth, adding new assumptions to the standard Burnside-Dollar model, where aid effectiveness depends only on policy: 1) policy itself depends on aid, which involves a dynamic formulation of the standard model, 2) aid effectiveness (positively) depends on structural economic vulnerability, 3) it depends (negatively) on political instability. An augmented model including these assumptions is estimated on 5-year subperiods from 1965 to 1999 for 59 developing countries, using the Arellano-Bond GMM estimator and new composite indicators of policy, economic vulnerability, political instability. None of the previous assumptions is rejected. It follows that an "efficient" allocation of aid has to consider not only the quality of the present policy, but also its potential improvement, the economic vulnerability faced by the recipient country (more aid needed), and its political instability as well (aid less effective).socio-political instability., Economic vulnerability, economic policy, aid effectiveness

The Cost of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty

In this paper, we estimate the costs of state failure, both for the failing state itself and for its neighbours. In our analysis, the cost of failure arises from two distinct sources: organized violence due to the incapacity of the state to ensure its own citizens' security and low quality of regulation and public goods due to poor governance. To estimate the cost of failure, we proceed in two steps. First we estimate the annual loss of growth induced by state failure. Then we cumulate this loss over time, taking into account the chances that each year a failing state will exit this status. Our growth estimations suggest that a failing state at peace loses 2.6 percentage points of growth per year, while violence induces a further loss of 1.6 percentage points of growth per year. ...responsibility, conflict, poverty

The security challenges in conflict prone countries.

Conflicts; economic growth; Civil war; post-conflict societies; Violence; Prevention;

Paradise Lost: The Costs of State Failure in the Pacific

Globally, state failure is hugely costly. We estimate the total cost of failing states at around US$276 billion per year. In this paper we apply our global framework and methodology to analyse the cost of failing states in the Pacific Ocean. Globally, failing states inflict very large costs on their neighbours and this both justifies and requires regional intervention in decision processes that would normally be the sovereign domain of nation states. Our analysis suggests that islands do not have neighbours in this economic sense. In this respect the Pacific region is distinctive, because its countries are islands, the neighbourhood spillovers that normally generate these costs do not apply. Due to the lack of spillovers we estimate the cost of state failure at US$36 billion. However, our results also indicate that failing states themselves suffer ...Pacific islands, governance, costs, growth, civil war

What explains aid project success in post-conflict situations ?

This paper investigates the effectiveness of post-conflict aid at the project level and aims to identify post-conflict situations as a window of opportunity for project success. The Independent Evaluation Group dataset provides extensive information on the characteristics of World Bank projects including an independent rating of their success, supervision and evaluationquality. The paper estimates the probability of success of aid projects depending on the characteristics of the intervention and looks for possible special patterns in post civil war situations. The results suggest that the probability of success of World Bank projects increases as peace lasts. Supervision appears to be a crucial determinant of the success of projects, especially during the first years of peace. Although the results of the sector-level analysis need to be taken with caution, the authors find that projects in the transport sector and in the urban development sector appear more successful in post-conflict environments. On the contrary, education projects seem less successful and therefore need to be highly supervised. Projects in the private sector should wait as they face a higher probability of failure in the first years of peace.Post Conflict Reconstruction,Post Conflict Reintegration,Social Conflict and Violence,Peace&Peacekeeping,Housing&Human Habitats

Aid, Volatility and Growth,with special reference to Africa

In two previous papers we have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e. that aid is more effective in countries which are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, hence not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper we examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness in Africa. We first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as pro-cyclical as often argued, and that, even if pro-cyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. We measure aid volatility by two methods and assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to exports, thus departing from previous literature, which usually assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of aid and the volatility of the a aid plus exports. We then evidence through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is to a large extent due to a stabilizing effect. Finally we consider the implications of this effect for income volatility